Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has historically experienced multiple bear traps. Depending on market conditions, these traps have appeared in short-term phases or larger timeframes.

Some analysts believe that Bitcoin is currently in such a bear trap and that a bull run will begin after the current phase ends.

What Does Bitcoin Bear Trap Cycle Mean?

A bear trap occurs when an asset’s price (such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, or indices) shows a sharp decline. This drop convinces investors that a bearish trend is starting. However, the price soon reverses and rises again, “trapping” those who sold short or exited their positions, expecting further declines.

According to pseudonymous crypto analyst Finish, Bitcoin’s bull run cycles typically last around nine months. A bear trap often appears in the sixth month of the cycle. During this phase, Bitcoin’s price drops sharply, causing panic and sell-offs. But after that, the price recovers and reaches new highs.

Historical data from previous cycles—including 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021, and the current cycle (2024–2025)—show that this pattern repeats consistently.

“2025 cycle is the same. Six-month bear trap, then a new ATH,” Finish predicted.

In his analysis, Finish also explains the driving forces behind bear traps in each cycle. For example, the 2013 bear trap was triggered by the shutdown of Silk Road, an online black market, and China’s ban on Bitcoin, which caused market panic.

In 2017, the ICO boom fueled Bitcoin’s bull run, pushing its price to $20,000. However, a bear trap emerged in the sixth month due to the launch of Bitcoin futures on the CME exchange. This was combined with media hype and concerns over Tether (USDT), which faced transparency issues.

Similarly, in 2021, Bitcoin soared to $69,000. But the six-month bear trap was triggered by an overheated market sentiment and Elon Musk’s sudden shift in stance on Bitcoin payments.

For the 2024–2025 cycle, Finish believes Bitcoin is currently in its bear trap phase. Macroeconomic factors, especially policies from US President Donald Trump, play a crucial role.

Trump’s policies—such as interest rate cuts, tariff war, and his pledge to make the US the “crypto capital” of the world—have created optimism but also caused short-term price volatility. This aligns with the six-month bear trap model described by Finish.

Additionally, analyst Danny agrees with this outlook. He predicts that Bitcoin’s biggest bull run will officially begin in April 2025 once the current bear trap phase ends. Danny suggests that Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by 2026.

“We’re in the Markup phase, just past a classic bear trap. Historically, the biggest gains follow as Bitcoin dominance dips and capital shifts to mid- and low-cap tokens,” Danny predicted.

However, some analysts have lowered their expectations for Bitcoin’s growth. Ecoinometrics observes that Bitcoin’s growth rate in this cycle is significantly lower than in previous cycles. Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, has analyzed Bitcoin’s PnL cycle signals and predicts that Bitcoin’s bull run has already ended.

The number of publicly traded companies buying and holding Bitcoin (BTC) has surged to 80 in 2025, a 142% increase from just 33 companies in 2023.

This trend reflects the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as both a strategic reserve asset and a hedge against inflation.

Why Public Companies Are Holding Bitcoin in 2025

Digital asset brokerage firm River revealed that 80 public companies hold Bitcoin, up from just 33 two years ago.

“80 public companies are now buying Bitcoin. Two years ago there were 33. Two years from now there will be…?,” River posed.

The companies embracing Bitcoin span multiple industries, with a strong concentration in technology and finance. The technology sector accounts for half of the public companies holding Bitcoin. Bitcoin Treasuries data shows firms like MicroStrategy (now Strategy), Tesla, and Block stand at the forefront of integrating Bitcoin into their financial strategies.

Financial institutions comprise 30% of the total, including Fold Holdings and Coinbase Global, which have indirect exposure via ETFs (exchange-traded funds). The cryptocurrency mining industry represents 15%, with mining giants such as Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms holding significant Bitcoin reserves.

The remaining 5% comprises companies from other sectors, including retail and energy. These firms experiment with Bitcoin holdings for transactions and balance sheet diversification.

Several key factors are driving the adoption of Bitcoin among public companies. Inflation hedging has become a major consideration as firms look for alternative stores of value beyond traditional assets.

“Bitcoin is the currency of freedom, a hedge against inflation for middle-class Americans, a remedy against the dollar’s downgrade from the world’s reserve currency, and the off-ramp from a ruinous national debt. Bitcoin will have no stronger advocate than Howard Lutnik,” US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr said recently.

Many companies have also adopted Bitcoin as a treasury reserve strategy, betting on its long-term appreciation. On this matter, firms like Strategy lead the way.

Additionally, investor pressure has played a role as institutional investors and shareholders increasingly push companies to diversify into digital assets. Regulatory clarity and pro-crypto policies in some regions have further encouraged corporate adoption.

Cumulative Bitcoin Holdings Continue to Rise

Meanwhile, public companies have been accumulating Bitcoin at an unprecedented rate. Between 2020 and 2023, they collectively held approximately 200,000 BTC. In 2024 alone, an additional 257,095 BTC was acquired, doubling the total from five years ago.

In the first quarter of 2025, an estimated 50,000 to 70,000 BTC has already been added. Noteworthy, MicroStrategy and Fold Holdings lead the acquisitions. Coinbase’s recent institutional investor survey also indicated that 83% of institutions plan to increase their crypto asset allocation by 2025.

The surge in Bitcoin adoption by public companies coincides with a new wave of crypto-related IPOs (initial public offerings). Notable firms, including Gemini and Kraken, plan to go public, highlighting increased institutional confidence in the digital asset space. These IPOs provide fresh capital inflows and further legitimize the broader crypto market.

Bitcoin has also become a financial lifeline for struggling companies seeking to boost their stock prices. Some firms with declining revenues have turned to Bitcoin investments to attract new investors and strengthen their market position. As a result, Bitcoin is playing an increasingly significant role in corporate strategies.

Despite the impressive growth in corporate Bitcoin adoption, public crypto companies still represent only 5.8% of the total crypto market capitalization, according to a CoinGecko report. This suggests that there is still significant room for expansion.

Beyond corporate treasuries, Bitcoin’s rising adoption also influences financial planning in other areas. Parents increasingly choose Bitcoin as an alternative to traditional college savings plans, betting on its long-term growth potential to fund education expenses.

With 80 public companies now holding Bitcoin, the trend shows no signs of slowing. If the current growth trajectory continues, institutional adoption will deepen as more companies turn to Bitcoin.

After weeks of outflows, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have finally reversed course, recording $274.6 million in inflows on March 17.

This marks the largest single-day net inflow in 41 days, hinting at renewed investor interest. While one positive day does not confirm a trend, it raises an important question: Is demand returning to Bitcoin ETFs, or is this just a temporary reprieve?

Bitcoin ETFs See First Major Inflows in Weeks

According to the latest data on Farside Investors, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded $42.3 million in inflows on Monday. Despite the positive flows, IBIT failed to lead the way amid ongoing headwinds due to stock market correlation.

Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) attracted $127.28 million, making it the day’s biggest gainer. The ARK Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), managed by ARK Invest and 21Shares, also saw significant interest, pulling in $88.5 million.

On the other hand, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which has been at the center of major outflows, remained flat at $0 million. This is notable because GBTC has lost billions in assets since transitioning to a spot ETF.

Meanwhile, Grayscale’s other Bitcoin product saw a modest inflow of $14.22 million. Other Bitcoin ETFs, including those from Valkyrie, Invesco, Franklin, and WisdomTree, recorded no daily inflows.

However, while Bitcoin ETFs had a strong showing, Ethereum-based spot ETFs continued their downward trajectory. Data on Farside investors showed they logged their ninth consecutive day of net outflows at $7.3 million.

“Bitcoin spot ETFs attract $275 million in inflows, while Ethereum ETFs experience outflows, reflecting shifting investor preferences,” one user on X suggested.

Notably, while this could suggest the returning demand for Bitcoin ETFs after weeks of outflows, analysts say one green day does not make a trend. Nevertheless, it is a shift worth watching.

Bitcoin ETFs Have Lost Billions in Recent Weeks

Just a week ago, Bitcoin ETFs had recorded four straight weeks of net outflows totaling more than $4.5 billion. Profit-taking, regulatory concerns, and broader economic uncertainty fueled the shift in investor sentiment.

The crypto market as a whole has also seen capital flight. As BeInCrypto reported, total crypto outflows exceeded $800 million last week, signaling strong negative sentiment among institutional investors.

With this context, while Monday’s inflow of $274 million could be seen as a sign of stabilization, it is too early to determine whether this marks the beginning of a broader recovery.

Nevertheless, the sudden surge in ETF inflows raises the question of whether this is a resurgence of the so-called “Trump crypto boom” or a case of fear of missing out (FOMO). Some analysts believe hedge funds and institutional players drive the action more than retail investors.

Crypto entrepreneur Kyle Chassé has previously argued that hedge funds play a major role in Bitcoin’s ETF flows. He claims that large investors strategically withdraw and reinvest capital to manipulate price movements, making it difficult to determine organic demand.

“The ETF “demand” was real, but some of it was purely for arbitrage. There was a genuine demand for owning BTC, just not as much as we were led to believe. Until real buyers step in, this chop & volatility will continue,” the analyst explained.

If true, the latest ETF inflows might not represent new buyers. Rather, it could mean recycling institutional capital to capitalize on short-term price swings.

Adding to the uncertainty, many investors are considering the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions. Some have speculated that the Fed will pivot toward monetary easing (QE) soon, but industry experts warn that such expectations are misguided.

Nic Puckrin, a financial analyst and founder of The Coin Bureau, believes those anticipating imminent QE are “deluded.” He notes that the Fed’s fund rate remains at 4.25-4.5%, and historically, QE does not begin until rates approach zero.

“…why is anyone suddenly expecting a massive injection of liquidity into the system? Realistically, if large-scale monetary stimulus is going to come from anywhere, it will be China or Europe, both of which have already implemented monetary easing measures. The most we can expect from Powell tomorrow is a hint at the timing of the next interest rate cut, but we may not even get that. And so, investors should prepare for the markets to throw another tantrum this week,” Puckrin told BeInCrypto.

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