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Bitcoin Bear Market Ahead? Analyst Warns of 33% Price Drop

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According to Timothy Peterson, author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin Value, the crypto industry could be on the brink of another bear market.

This analysis comes as the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintains its cautious stance on interest rates despite persisting economic uncertainties.

Analyst Explains How a Bear Market Could Unfold

In his recent analysis, shared on X (Twitter), Peterson warned that the market is currently overvalued. This, he says, makes it vulnerable to a downturn. While such a decline needs a trigger, he suggests that the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates steady could be enough to set it off.

“It’s time to talk about the next bear market. There’s no reason to think it couldn’t happen now. The valuation justifies it. What it needs is a trigger. I think that trigger may be as simple as the Fed not cutting rates at all this year,” wrote Peterson.

Peterson’s analysis draws parallels between past market downturns and current conditions. Using the NASDAQ as a reference point, he estimates that a bear market could last anywhere from 7 to 14 months.

Given that the NASDAQ is currently 28% overvalued, he anticipates a decline of about 17%, bringing the index down to 15,000.

Nasdaq Price Performance
Nasdaq Price Performance. Source: Peterson on X

Applying these projections to Bitcoin, Peterson expects a roughly 33% drop, pushing Bitcoin’s price down to around $57,000.

“Multiply by 1.9. 17% drop in NASDAQ = 33% drop in BTC -> $57k,” Peterson added.

However, he notes that opportunistic investors could step in early. Such an intervention could prevent the Bitcoin price from falling that low, potentially finding support around $71,000.

This aligns with a recent analysis from Arthur Hayes. As BeInCrypto reported, the BitMex founder claimed Bitcoin could slump to $70,000 before a potential rebound.

Analysts also highlighted Bitcoin’s air gap below $93,198, with little to no significant support until around the $70,000 range.

Fed’s Role in the Market Downturn

Meanwhile, about a month ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates. He reiterated these remarks during his speech last week. speaking at a policy forum in New York, Powell emphasized the need for patience.

“We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity,” Powell stated.

Powell’s remarks come amid economic uncertainty fueled by President Donald Trump’s policy changes in trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. With inflation hovering around 2.5%, the Fed is focused on addressing these challenges cautiously.

Despite market expectations for rate cuts this year, Powell has made it clear that the Fed will wait and see before adjusting monetary policy.

Adding to concerns about an impending Fed-inspired downturn, Bitcoin recently dropped following the Fed’s warning of a possible recession. The Fed projected a 2.8% decline in GDP for the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, triggering fears of economic instability. This had influenced investor sentiment negatively.

Despite these warnings, Peterson remains unconvinced that a full-fledged bear market is imminent. He argues that current market conditions are not as euphoric as those of previous bubbles. The analyst also explains that bearish sentiment among investors could indicate a long-term buying opportunity rather than a sell signal.

BTC Price Performance
BTC Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

BeInCrypto data shows Bitcoin was trading for $86,026 as of this writing, down 0.1% since Sunday’s session opened.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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5 Token Unlocks to Watch for the Second Week of March

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Token unlocks are key events in the crypto market, releasing previously restricted tokens into circulation. These unlocks can impact liquidity, price action, and overall market sentiment. 

Below are the top five token unlocks to watch this week.

1. Xai (XAI)

  • Unlock Date: March 9
  • Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 35.89 million XAI (1.44% of Max Supply)
  • Current Circulating Supply: 1.06 billion XAI

Xai is a Layer 3 gaming blockchain that leverages Ethereum’s security (Layer 1) and Arbitrum’s scalability (Layer 2). It allows gamers to seamlessly own, trade, and utilize in-game assets across multiple titles.

On March 9, the Xai network will unlock 35.89 million XAI tokens, valued at approximately $2.62 million. The network will allocate the largest portion of this unlock, around 17.33 million XAI tokens, to investors. Also, 11.9 million tokens will be for the team.

Meanwhile, the rest will be allocated to the Xai ecosystem and reserve. 

xai token unlocks
Xai Unlock. Source: Cryptorank

With gaming-focused blockchains gaining momentum, this unlock could influence Xai’s liquidity and trading dynamics.

2. Moca Network (MOCA)

  • Unlock Date: March 11
  • Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 178.51 million MOCA (2.01% of Max Supply)
  • Current Circulating Supply: 1.91 billion MOCA

Moca Network is a digital identity infrastructure enabling seamless asset management across Web2 and Web3 ecosystems. It powers DeFi and consumer services, with MOCA as its utility token.

The upcoming unlock of 178.51 million MOCA tokens (valued at $17.36 million) represents 9.34% of its market cap. The largest distribution, around 93.32 million MOCA, will be allocated for network incentives. 

Most importantly, the network will allocate 37.04 million tokens for liquidity and 33.33 million for the ecosystem. The network will reserve the rest for operational expenses. 

moca token unlock
Moca Network Unlock. Source: Cryptorank

With a significant portion going towards network incentives and liquidity, this unlock may impact MOCA’s supply dynamics.

3. Delysium (AGI)

  • Unlock Date: March 11
  • Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 66.48 million AGI (2.22% of Max Supply)
  • Current Circulating Supply: 1.53 billion AGI

Delysium is a blockchain-powered AI platform designed to create a virtual world where AI and humans coexist. Its native token, AGI, fuels ecosystem growth.

On March 11, the platform will unlock 66.48 million AGI tokens (valued at $3.78 million). Delysium will allocate 34.37 million AGI for the treasure, 24 million for the team, and the rest for strategic sales. 

agi
Delysium (AGI) Unlock. Source: Cryptorank

4. Cheelee (CHEEL)

  • Unlock Date: March 10
  • Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 2.67 million CHEEL (0.27% of Max Supply)
  • Current Circulating Supply: 56.8 million CHEEL

Cheelee is a blockchain-based short video platform that incorporates GameFi elements, rewarding users for engaging with content. The platform uses its native token, CHEEL, for governance, NFT upgrades, and in-app transactions.

The upcoming unlock consists of 2.67 million CHEEL tokens (valued at $20.62 million). The network will allocate the majority of these tokens (2.64 million) for liquidity, and only a small portion will be distributed as community airdrops. 

cheelee
Cheelee Token Unlock. Source: Cryptorank

As liquidity allocations tend to ease trading conditions, this unlock may provide additional market depth for CHEEL.

5. Xave (XAV)

  • Unlock Date: March 11
  • Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 279.18 million XAV (2.79% of Max Supply)
  • Current Circulating Supply: 201,950 XAV (self-reported)

Xave is a DeFi platform focused on decentralized foreign exchange (FX) markets. It enhances stablecoin liquidity through an automated market maker (AMM) model.

On March 11, the network will unlock 279.18 million XAV tokens. Xave will largely focus distribution to the team, investors, and treasury.

Also, the Xave protocol will add around 4.06 million tokens to DEX and CEX liquidity and another 6.19 million as rewards for liquidity providers. 

xave token unlocks
Xave Token Unlock. Source: Cryptorank

With a large unlock relative to the reported circulating supply, XAV’s market performance may experience heightened volatility.

Overall, this week’s unlocks will introduce over $44 million worth of new tokens into the market. Monitoring these releases can help traders and investors assess potential price fluctuations and liquidity shifts.

The post 5 Token Unlocks to Watch for the Second Week of March appeared first on BeInCrypto.



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Arkham Can Now Track Crypto Influencer Wallets

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Arkham Intelligence has unveiled a new feature allowing users to track the wallets of Key Opinion Leaders (KOLs) on X (formerly Twitter).

This development comes amid a flurry of new meme coins, capitalizing on token launchpads for easy launches.

New Arkham Feature Lets Users Track Influencers’ Token Holdings

The update, announced in a recent post, introduces the “Key Opinion Leader (KOL) Label.” It tracks the wallets of influencers with over 100,000 followers on X.

“Influencers with more than 100K+ followers on Twitter/X are now tagged on Arkham with a new label: Key Opinion Leader,” read the announcement.

This means investors can monitor whether influencers genuinely back the tokens they promote or if their endorsements are merely paid advertising. The move has sparked widespread debate within the crypto community, particularly concerning its impact on influencer-endorsed meme coins.

“Biggest scammer on top! Now everyone can watch your wallets. But they should know y’all have multiple ones,” one user wrote.

The introduction of Arkham’s KOL Label comes amid increasing concerns over the reliability of influencer-backed tokens. A recent report revealed that 76% of influencer-endorsed tokens fail to deliver.

Specifically, their value plummeted by more than 90% within just three months.

As BeInCrypto reported, the research suggested earning up to $399 per promotional tweet, incentivizing certain influencers to prioritize financial gain over credibility.

It also showed that many promoted tokens lack fundamental utility and community engagement, leading to inevitable crashes.

“Influencers with over 200,000 followers tend to have the worst performance. The larger the influencer’s following, the lower the performance of the meme coins they promote,” the report claims.

Success Rate of Influencer Predictions based on Followership
Success Rate of Influencer Predictions based on Followership. Source: CoinWire Research

Similarly, blockchain investigator ZachXBT recently exposed 16 influencer accounts on X that coordinated pump-and-dump schemes, leaving their followers to absorb the losses. This fueled debates about the ethical responsibilities of influencers in crypto markets.

With Arkham’s new tracking feature, investors can now scrutinize whether influencers hold the tokens they endorse. This could provide greater transparency in an industry plagued by misinformation and deceptive marketing tactics.

“Interesting move—transparency meets influence,” a user on X remarked.

The pattern mirrors previous crypto fads, where early investors profit while latecomers bear the brunt of financial losses. Arkham’s new tool could expose questionable practices, distinguishing genuine endorsements from misleading promotions.

By tracking influencers’ wallet activities, users can identify whether influencers hold the tokens they promote, indicating a true conviction. They could also spot red flags, such as influencers dumping tokens shortly after promoting them.

Experts, including Tron founder Justin Sun, emphasize the importance of fundamentals, tokenomics, and risk management for investors within the volatile meme coin market.

“I will check on the real social engagement. Are those likes real, or it’s just general bullshit? Do they have lots of influence, and the people really believe them? Also, I will see the founders, see their material, and see the memes they made and the videos they made. I will see if this is the right video and the right social engagement,” Sun elaborated.

These approaches reflect the importance of caution and due diligence instead of relying solely on influencer endorsement.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Shiba Inu Whales Cut Holdings—Is a Bigger Price Drop Ahead?

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Leading meme coin Shiba Inu has shed almost 10% of its value over the past week. As of this writing, SHIB trades at $0.0000125.

This price decline coincides with a significant drop in whale holdings during the same period. This signals waning confidence among large investors amid broader market weakness.

SHIB’s Market Confidence Wanes as Whale Sell-Off Accelerates

According to IntoTheBlock, SHIB’s large holders ’netflow has fallen 123% in the past week. This comes amid the meme coin’s 8% price dip. 

SHIB Large Holders Netflow
SHIB Large Holders Netflow. Source: IntoTheBlock

Large holders refer to whale addresses that hold more than 0.1% of an asset’s circulating supply. Their netflow measures the inflow and outflow of tokens in their wallets to track whether they are accumulating (positive netflow) or offloading (negative netflow) their holdings.

When this metric falls, it indicates that whales are selling large portions of their assets, leading to increased supply and putting more downward pressure on price.

Moreover, this decline in SHIB whale netflow could worsen the weakening confidence among SHIB retail traders, prompting them to sell their coins in anticipation of further losses. This can accelerate SHIB’s price dip in the short term. 

On the daily chart, SHIB’s falling Relative Strength Index supports this bearish outlook. At press time, this momentum indicator is a downward trend at 35.34.

SHIB RSI.
SHIB RSI. Source: TradingView

An asset’s RSI measures an asset’s oversold and overbought conditions. It ranges between 0 and 100, with values above 70 indicating that the asset is overbought and due for a decline. Conversely, values under 30 suggest that the asset is oversold and could witness a rebound. 

At 35.05, SHIB’s RSI indicates that the asset is approaching oversold territory but has not fully entered it yet. This suggests weakening buying pressure and hints at the potential for further downside unless the meme coin demand picks up.

SHIB Holds Below Descending Trend Line

SHIB has remained below a descending trend line since December 8, keeping its price in decline. This pattern is formed when an asset’s price consistently makes lower highs over a period, connecting these peaks with a downward-sloping line. It is a bearish trend, indicating sustained selling pressure among SHIB market participants. 

If this decline continues, SHIB risks falling to a seven-month low of $0.0000107.

SHIB Price Analysis
SHIB Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, if buying pressure regains momentum, it could drive SHIB’s value to $0.0000166.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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