The crypto community is on edge following Mt. Gox’s significant Bitcoin (BTC) transfer. According to data from Arkham Intelligence, the defunct exchange has moved Bitcoin worth $1 billion. 

The transaction has ignited speculation about potential selling pressure that could destabilize Bitcoin’s price amid already volatile market conditions.

Mt. Gox Transfers 12,000 Bitcoin

Arkham’s blockchain explorer shows that Mt. Gox transferred 12,000 BTC.

“Mt. Gox moving $1billion BTC,” Arkham alerted users on X.

Mt. Gox sent 11,833.6 BTC, worth approximately $1 billion, from its wallet (1PuQB) to a new address (1Mo1n). Additionally, it transferred 166.5 BTC, worth $15.1 million, to its cold wallet (1Jbez). No further movement occurred after these transactions.

This marks the first significant Bitcoin movement from Mt. Gox-linked wallets in a month. It came after a smaller shuffle of just 4 BTC between cold wallets in February.

Mt. Gox, once the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange, collapsed in 2014 after a massive hack. The security breach resulted in the loss of approximately 850,000 BTC. The exchange filed for bankruptcy, leaving creditors in limbo for years. 

However, Mt. Gox began reimbursing creditors last year. According to Arkham data, Mt. Gox-linked entities now hold 36,080 BTC, valued at around $3.2 billion.

Meanwhile, the transfer has sparked widespread concern on social media. Users are speculating that these movements could trigger a sell-off.

“Looks like they’re about to dump,” one user wrote on X.

However, Fefe Demeny, the host of Crypto Banter, alleged that the US government holds the transferred Bitcoin from Mt. Gox’s wallets, as it had previously seized these assets.

He speculated that this could be a strategic move ahead of the upcoming White House Crypto Summit. This summit, the first of its kind, is scheduled for March 7. 

Key discussion points are expected to include regulatory clarity for digital assets, the creation of a US crypto reserve that includes Bitcoin along with other digital assets, and potential reforms to crypto tax policies.

According to Demeny, Trump could use the summit to outline a plan that promises never to sell the seized BTC while committing to creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Demeny believes this initiative would stir excitement within the crypto community and help boost market sentiment. The government could then leverage the already seized Bitcoin for the reserve without the need for any additional purchases. 

“If this turns out to be true I believe we will see a massive dump short term,” he wrote.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been grappling with market volatility, driven by factors such as new US trade tariffs and broader economic uncertainty. In fact, last week, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index reached its lowest level since 2022. 

However, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable surge on March 5, rising above $90,000. This was driven by speculation that it may receive special treatment in Trump’s proposed US crypto reserve plan.

This upward movement follows a brief dip below $80,000 just five days ago. As of the latest update, Bitcoin was trading at $91,368, reflecting a 3.0% gain in the past 24 hours. Whether these gains will lead to a sustained bullish rally or if the market will once again take a nosedive remains uncertain.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below its 200-day moving average (MA) for the first time since November, marking a significant shift in the currency’s trajectory.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hold above the psychological level of $90,000. It defends against further downside ahead of Friday’s crypto summit.

US DXY Slips Below 200-Day MA

Over the past three trading days, the DXY has dropped by more than 3%. The move saw it slip below the 200-day MA for the first time in over three months. In trading, losing the support offered by the moving average generally suggests weakening momentum and is a bearish signal.

This decline in the DXY has fueled speculation about potential bullish momentum for risk assets. Lark Davis, a renowned crypto analyst, weighed in on the development. He states that the weakening dollar and an expanding global money supply are bullish for digital assets.

Davis highlighted that the US government is working toward establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve. This could further reinforce positive sentiment for Bitcoin and the crypto market. However, the analyst cautioned that short-term volatility remains a possibility despite the favorable long-term outlook.

“However, it doesn’t mean things can’t get worse before they start getting better. Patience is key here,” Davis added.

Historical Precedents and the Crypto Bull Run Thesis

Dan Gambardello, another well-known analyst, pointed to historical patterns. He pointed to a similar DXY decline during the last cycle, which triggered a parabolic bull run in the crypto market.

“This DXY fractal might be the most important fractal in crypto,” Gambardello observed.  

Further, the analyst emphasized that the current market fundamentals are significantly stronger than in the past. If history repeats itself, he said, Bitcoin and altcoins could be poised for a substantial rally.

“Last cycle, this move triggered a parabolic bull run. This time, fundamentals are 100x stronger,” the analyst added.

Meanwhile, the weakening of the US dollar has been partially attributed to President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Mister Spread, a trader and market analyst, explained that Trump’s tariff strategies exert downward pressure on the DXY while forcing the Federal Reserve’s hand.

“His calls for ‘more rate cuts’ didn’t move the Fed much, so he’s using tariffs as an alternative strategy,” the trader suggested.

Further, the analyst detailed how tariffs create economic uncertainty, which could slow growth and lead to the Fed cutting interest rates. Lower interest rates weaken the dollar, making US assets less attractive to investors seeking higher yields.

Meanwhile, technical analysts are also monitoring key levels for the DXY. The 105.3 level, previously a support, has now flipped to resistance. The next critical short-term target is 103.7, and if that level is breached, a further decline toward the 99.6 area could be on the horizon.

Below 99.6, the DXY could see a steeper drop, potentially accelerating capital flows into alternative assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Analysts also point to the growing global M2 money supply as a catalyst for a potential Bitcoin rally. As BeInCrypto reported, analysts say the correlation between M2 money supply expansion and Bitcoin’s price suggests that a major upward movement could occur by late March.

This aligns with the historical trend where increased liquidity in the financial system favors risk assets, including Bitcoin. However, traders must still conduct their own research.  

BeInCrypto data shows BTC was trading for $91,293 as of this writing, after a modest 1.62% surge since Thursday’s session opened.

Once viewed as a hedge against financial uncertainty, Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to maintain this title amid global economic shifts. Its market trajectory increasingly resembles that of traditional risk assets.

Since Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, the crypto market has seen an unprecedented decline, erasing nearly $1 trillion in value.

Bitcoin’s Changing Role in Financial Markets

Historically, Bitcoin has been considered a hedge, moving in tandem with gold during times of uncertainty. However, this trend has reversed since President Trump took office. While gold continues to rise, Bitcoin has undergone a severe correction, suggesting a fundamental shift in market perception.

“Since Trump became president on January 20, the market has dropped from $3.7 trillion to $2.5 trillion. This is strange cause the moment Trump took office marked a local top for crypto Even though he is the most pro-crypto president ever,” noted crypto analyst Symbiote.

One key factor in this change is Bitcoin’s growing correlation with traditional financial assets. In 2024, BTC moved in synchrony with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 approximately 88% of the time, a stark contrast from its earlier role as a negative-correlated asset.

Now, the 30-day rolling correlation has dropped to around 40%. This suggests Bitcoin is now trading more like a high-risk technology stock than a hedge against inflation or economic turmoil.

Liquidity is another major concern. Since 2020, financial markets have been pricing in reduced liquidity, a trend severely affecting crypto. Market watchers note that liquidity flows back into the US dollar, which was historically the most stable asset during trade wars.

This shift has resulted in repeated flash crashes in crypto markets, increasing volatility and investor uncertainty. Coinglass data supports this trend, showing that Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Funds) assets under management (AUM) have dropped from $120 billion to $100 billion in weeks.

Additionally, decentralized finance (DeFi) has taken a hit. Data on DefiLlama shows the total locked value (TVL) dropping from the 2025 peak of $128.7 billion to $93.2 billion as of this writing. The decline signals a broad loss of confidence in crypto’s ability to provide financial stability during economic uncertainty.

Trump’s Trade War Fears Weigh on Crypto Sentiment

A recent Bank of America survey highlights growing fears about global trade wars. Specifically, 42% of respondents identified it as the most bearish development for risk assets in 2025, up from 30% in January.

“When asked which global development would be seen as the most bearish for risk assets in 2025, 42% said a global trade war, primarily due to the new Trump administration’s threats of new tariffs. That response is up from 30% that replied in January that a global trade war would be the most bearish,” Pensions & Investments reported.

Notably, only 3% of respondents believe Bitcoin would perform best in a full-blown trade war, starkly contrasting gold and the US dollar. These findings highlight a critical shift in perception—markets no longer see Bitcoin as a hedge in times of economic strife.

The pioneer crypto, which thrived during geopolitical instability, is now seen as too volatile to offer meaningful protection against financial shocks.

Furthermore, Goldman Sachs’ volatility panic index has surged from 1.4 in December to over 9.1, with expectations of even greater swings ahead. The Kobeissi Letter, a widely followed financial news source, suggests that Bitcoin’s price action will likely remain turbulent as trade war fears intensify.

Is There Hope for Bitcoin’s Revival? Experts Weigh In

Despite the bearish sentiment, some experts argue that Bitcoin still holds long-term potential. BeInCrypto recently reported how Bitcoin could serve as America’s financial lifeline amid soaring national debt. By embracing digital assets as part of a broader economic strategy, the US could leverage Bitcoin’s decentralized nature to maintain financial resilience.

“You can buy Bitcoin though as a way to vote with your dollars, send a clear message, and potentially even save the US long term. A return to the gold standard,” Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s ability to provide liquidity to struggling companies remains a strong argument in its favor. BeInCrypto highlighted how firms looking to boost their stock performance have increasingly turned to Bitcoin as an alternative asset.

“We have a nice core business, but it’s too small to be relevant to the capital markets. I think as we start investing more into our Bitcoin treasury strategy, we’ll be able to create more liquidity in our stock and attract investors,” Bloomberg reported, citing Goodfood CEO Jonathan Ferrari.

If corporate adoption continues to grow, Bitcoin could regain its position as a critical financial tool rather than just another risk asset. Nevertheless, one idea is proving apparent: Bitcoin’s role in global finance is changing.

“I get the rationale for a Bitcoin reserve. I do not agree with it, but I get it. We have a gold reserve. Bitcoin is digital gold, which is better than analog gold,” BTC critic Peter Schiff admitted recently.