As Bitcoin (BTC) hovers near critical price levels, crypto investors focus on a packed week of US economic data releases that could sway market sentiment.

From employment figures to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s insights, these macroeconomic indicators are poised to influence Bitcoin’s trajectory.

US Macroeconomic Data To Watch This Week

Crypto market participants, traders, and investors have several US economic events to watch this week. This follows a notable sentiment shift during the weekend, driven by US President Donald Trump’s move to commission a crypto reserve.

The crypto market’s reaction to the president’s executive order reflects Bitcoin’s growing place in the United States macroeconomic space. Here is a breakdown of the five key data points to watch and their potential impact on the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

ADP Employment Report

The week kicks off with the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday. This US economic data is a key gauge of private-sector job growth. After the previous 183,000, economists forecast February’s jobs data slowing down to around 143,000. This reflects a continued cautious hiring environment, as President Trump’s economic policies remain a topic of interest.

A stronger-than-expected report could signal resilience in the labor market, potentially boosting the US dollar and pressuring Bitcoin as investors pivot to traditional assets. Conversely, a weaker print might fuel expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, lifting BTC as a risk asset.

“The focus is on jobs data this week, with ADP on Mar 5 expected at 143,000 and non-farm payrolls on Mar 7 forecasted at 160,000. If those hit or beat, the bulls will likely drive a 1-2% gain, fueled by optimism in tech and a belief in a soft landing,” one user commented.

However, the outcome remains uncertain, with historical trends showing mixed reactions in crypto markets to ADP surprises.

Initial Jobless Claims

Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims report will offer a real-time snapshot of the US labor market’s health. The previous week’s figure increased to 242,000, beating the consensus of 225,000, signaling economic softening.

According to data on MarketWatch, analysts anticipate a slight uptick to around 243,000 for the week ending March 1. Lower claims could reinforce confidence in the economy, potentially reducing Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against uncertainty.

Higher claims, however, might stoke fears of a slowdown, driving investors toward BTC as a safe-haven alternative.

US Unemployment Rate

Friday’s US jobs report, including the unemployment rate, is a market marquee event. Forecasts peg job growth at 160,000 for February, up from January’s 143,000, with the unemployment rate forecasted at 4.1%, higher than the previous 4.0%.

Strong job growth could dampen hopes for monetary easing, pressuring Bitcoin as higher interest rates make yield-bearing assets more attractive. A disappointing report, on the other hand, might bolster BTC’s narrative as a hedge against economic weakness.

Jerome Powell Speech

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech is also a wildcard. It features US economic data that could influence crypto sentiment this week. His speech could set the tone for monetary policy expectations.

His remarks, scheduled for Friday, will be parsed for clues on rate cuts in 2025, especially after the Fed’s latest interest rate decision. Dovish hints—suggesting more aggressive easing—could propel Bitcoin higher by weakening the dollar and boosting risk appetite. A hawkish stance, emphasizing inflation control, might weigh on BTC as borrowing costs rise.

Notably, Powell recently told the Senate Banking Committee that he is in no rush to cut interest rates, maintaining a cautious economic approach. Nevertheless, it is impossible to ignore the growing concerns among US policymakers about President Trump’s policies.

“Many participants suggested that a variety of factors underlined the need for a careful approach to monetary policy decisions over coming quarters,” the Fed’s previous minutes stated.

Consumer Credit

Friday’s Consumer Credit data will shed light on American borrowing trends by rounding out the week. Following a $40.85 billion increase in December, a sharp rise could signal strong consumer confidence, potentially reducing Bitcoin’s allure as disposable income flows elsewhere.

A slowdown in credit growth might suggest economic caution, nudging investors toward BTC as a store of value amid uncertainty. Nevertheless, data on MarketWatch indicates a modest median forecast of $12 billion.

As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $92,811, up by over 8% since Monday’s session opened. With these five data points looming, volatility is all but guaranteed.

Meanwhile, traders and investors are waiting expectantly for the crypto summit on Friday at the White House, as President Trump aims to position the US at the forefront of the growing digital asset industry.

“While I anticipated the pro-American crypto asset reserve that focused specifically on American blockchains, I didn’t trade the news. This is the beta trade. Look at the tokens that have not been added yet before the summit on Friday and consider holding some in your portfolio. It is a pretty speculative trade though because while Trump did hint there would be more added, those that aren’t chosen will likely take a reverse hit,” one X user quipped.

President Donald Trump’s announcement of a US crypto strategic reserve, comprising a basket of digital assets, has stirred debate among industry leaders. Many argue that Bitcoin (BTC) should be the sole reserve asset.

This debate follows Trump’s executive order on digital assets, which directed the Presidential Working Group to establish the reserve.

A Divisive Selection? Experts Debate Trump’s US Crypto Reserve

According to the official announcement, the proposed crypto reserve would include Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), XRP (XRP), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and other digital assets. The initiative aims to strengthen the US as a global leader in crypto.

Notably, the announcement triggered a substantial rally for the coins. Yet, experts remain sharply divided over the choice of assets included in the reserve.

Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, commented on Trump’s strategic crypto reserve plan. In the latest post on X (formerly Twitter), he shared his thoughts on asset allocation.

“Just Bitcoin would probably be the best option – simplest, and clear story as successor to gold,” the post read.

Nonetheless, if diversification is necessary, he suggested using a market cap-weighted index of crypto assets to ensure neutrality. Despite considering both options, Armstrong emphasized that a Bitcoin-only reserve would be the easiest path forward.

Investor and author Fred Krueger also supported a market-weighted approach for the proposed crypto reserve. 

“The Strategic Crypto Reserve should be Market Weighted, like the SP500,” he stated.

He outlined a suggested allocation, excluding foreign assets and stablecoins, with Bitcoin at 75%, followed by Ethereum at 12.4%, XRP at 5.7%, Solana at 3.1%, Dogecoin (DOGE) at 1.4%, and Cardano at 1.0%. Smaller allocations were designated for Litecoin (LTC), Avalanche (AVAX), Polkadot (DOT), and Cosmos (ATOM).

Meanwhile, many in the crypto community voiced disappointment. Jeff Park, head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise, was among those advocating for a Bitcoin-only reserve.

“Huge political miscalculation by Trump in underestimating just how crucial it was for the Strategic Reserve to focus solely on Bitcoin,” Park posted.

He warned that including altcoins with unclear national significance risks perceptions of insider dealing, even if unfounded. Park also noted that while Bitcoin should be the only strategic reserve asset, broader crypto adoption can still be supported from an investment perspective.

Even long-time Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff acknowledged the logic behind a BTC reserve. Despite his disagreement, he compared it to the gold reserve, recognizing Bitcoin as “digital gold.” However, he criticized the inclusion of XRP, questioning its necessity in the crypto reserve.

“But what’s the rationale for an XRP reserve? Why the hell would we need that?” Schiff remarked.

Alex Xu, a research partner at Mint Ventures, argued that Trump made a politically motivated decision to reward projects that financially backed him. He called the move an “advertising slot” within Trump’s presidential powers.

“However, in the long run, pushing assets like ADA and XRP as reserve holdings is absurd. It undermines the legitimacy of BTC as a strategic reserve and further reduces the chances of passing a BTC reserve bill at the federal level,” he said.

He also pointed to the Republicans’ narrow House majority. Therefore, he suggested that this makes it unlikely that legislation including SOL, ADA, and XRP in national reserves would pass.

Xu suggested the only feasible option would be a sovereign wealth fund controlled by the Treasury. This would allow Trump to buy these assets without congressional approval.

“But how likely is that? How much would SOL, XRP, and ADA need to funnel into Trump’s circle for him to issue an executive order using taxpayer money to buy them? Trump’s style is about making big headlines with minimal effort. He won’t invest heavily or take on major risks without significant personal gain,” he questioned.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, took a more critical stand and dismissed Trump’s crypto reserve proposal as rhetoric.

“Nothing new here. Just words,” he claimed.

He argued that without congressional approval to borrow funds or revalue gold, the government lacks the resources to buy Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

In the past few days, the price of Bitcoin has been under significant bearish pressure, falling by more than 10% in the past week. The US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) registered significant withdrawals in the same period, begging the question of whether the funds are responsible for the market downturn.

The spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds ended the run of significant daily outflows on Friday, February 28, with nearly $100 million added in value to close the week. However, it might be too early to tell whether this latest capital influx to these crypto-based products represents a shift in investor sentiment.

Bitcoin ETFs Lose $3.2 Billion In Eight Days

According to the latest market data, the US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total daily net inflow of $94.34 million on Friday. This latest capital inflow put an end to the funds’ eight-day streak of consecutive net outflows.

The ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (with the ticker ARKB) was responsible for a substantial portion of the day’s total inflow, posting  $193.7 million in capital influx. ARKB was followed by Fidelity Wise Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) on Friday, adding more than $176 million to its net assets to close the week.

Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and Grayscale Mini Trust (BTC) were the only other exchange-traded funds that saw net inflows ($4.57 and $5.59 million, respectively) on Friday. BlackRock’s IBIT (the largest Bitcoin ETF by net asset) accounted for most of the total withdrawals ($244.5 million), continuing its recent trend of outflows.

Source: SoSoValue

The $94.34 million single-day net influx did little to alleviate the US-based Bitcoin ETFs’ weekly performance, which stood at a record negative outflows of over $2.61 billion. Up until the past Friday, the last time the US Bitcoin ETF market saw a daily net positive inflow was on Friday, February 14.

More than $3.265 billion was withdrawn from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds within these eight days. Most notably, the Bitcoin ETFs registered over $1.1 billion in its daily net outflow on Tuesday, February 25 — the first time withdrawals have ever crossed the billion-dollar mark since launch.

Bitcoin Price And The Spot ETFs

There is undeniably a relationship between the performance of the spot Bitcoin ETFs and the BTC price. According to CryptoQuant’s Head of Research Julio Moreno, exchange-traded funds have disappeared as a source of demand growth for Bitcoin so far in 2025 relative to 2024.

The net cumulative inflows into Bitcoin ETFs on day 58 of 2025 stand at 12,100 Bitcoin ($1.7 billion), which pales in comparison to 128,700 Bitcoin ($6.3 billion) in 2024. This trend somewhat explains the Bitcoin price struggles since the start of this year.

As of this writing, BTC is valued at around $85,400, reflecting a 1.5% price increase in the past 24 hours.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView