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What It Means for Bitcoin & Crypto

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Crypto markets need to monitor several key US economic data points this week, given the abounding influence of macroeconomic events on Bitcoin (BTC).

Bitcoin is trading near the $95,000 range, with this week’s economic events likely to provoke its next directional bias.

Consumer Confidence

The University of Michigan will report the US consumer confidence on Tuesday, detailing buyer attitudes, buying intentions, vacation plans, expectations for inflation, stock prices, and interest rates.

After the previous consumer confidence index of 104.1, the consensus is a minor retraction to 102.4. This sentiment comes amid President Donald Trump’s policies, with Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood noting the new administration’s impact on spending.

“…today nearly a third of the labor force, and perhaps their families, could be holding back on spending until they see the impact of rapid policy changes. While we believe the changes will be net positive for the economy – perhaps massively so – the short-term uncertainty is palpable,” Wood explained.

Notably, consumer confidence data does not move crypto markets the way a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike might. However, it is a signal of how people are feeling about discretionary spending and investment. Crypto and Bitcoin, in particular, largely being a retail-driven market, are sensitive to that vibe.

Initial Jobless Claims

Thursday’s initial jobless claims report is also a key US economic data to watch this week. It measures the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a week, serving as a real-time pulse on the labor market and broader economy.

As such, this report’s influence ties to how the data shapes investor sentiment, including expectations about monetary policy. When jobless claims rise unexpectedly, it signals potential economic weakness—think layoffs, slowing growth, or recession risks.

Investors often interpret this as a cue to dial back risk, pulling money from volatile assets like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in favor of safer bets like cash or bonds. Conversely, when initial jobless claims drop or come in lower than expected, it is a sign of labor market strength.

This can boost confidence, encouraging investors to invest in riskier assets, including crypto. A strong jobs picture might ease fears of aggressive rate hikes, giving Bitcoin room to climb—especially if it keeps its digital gold allure intact.

According to data from MarketWatch, after a previous reading of 219,000 jobless claims, economists anticipate a rise to 225,000 for the week ending February 22.

GDP

The US GDP report, scheduled for release this Thursday, could also significantly sway Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets. Like consumer confidence and initial jobless claims, the data could shape investor perceptions of economic health and monetary policy direction.

A stronger-than-expected GDP figure might signal strong economic growth, potentially reducing Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against uncertainty. Investors could lean toward traditional assets like stocks, expecting tighter Federal Reserve policies to curb inflation.

This risk-off shift often pressures crypto prices downward, as Bitcoin’s correlation with equities has tightened recently. For instance, if GDP growth exceeds forecasts (above the projected 2.3% for Q4 2024), it might dampen hopes for rate cuts. Such an outcome would prompt a sell-off in speculative assets like crypto.

Conversely, a weaker-than-expected GDP report could fuel a crypto rally. If growth slows significantly, perhaps falling short of the prior quarter, it might stoke recession fears, pushing the Fed toward a more dovish stance with potential rate cuts.

This scenario often boosts Bitcoin’s allure as a digital gold or alternative store of value, especially if investors lose faith in fiat stability amid economic softness.

PCE

Another US economic data point to watch this week is the January PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures), set for release on Friday. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, this metric will give a fresh read on how price pressures are trending, potentially swaying expectations for interest rates and, by extension, risk assets like crypto.

If the PCE comes in hotter than expected, above the consensus estimate of 0.3% monthly growth for the headline index or 0.2% for the core, it might signal stubborn inflation. This could reduce the odds of near-term rate cuts, possibly spooking investors and dragging Bitcoin down as money flows out of speculative plays and into safer bets like bonds.

On the other hand, a cooler-than-expected PCE, which is closer to or below the Fed’s 2% annual target, could spark a rally.

“The idea of a 2% inflation target was first introduced by the Fed in 2012, when core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure, was 1.8%. It was just an excuse to justify QE. For the first 99 years of the Fed’s existence, the unofficial target was zero, as the mandate was price stability,” Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff highlighted.

Lower inflation might fuel hopes that the Fed will ease rates sooner, maybe even at the March 19 meeting. This would make cheap money more available and boost the appetite for crypto.

Bitcoin has been sensitive to these macro cues lately, including its recent response to President Trump’s tariffs. Either way, investors should brace for possible volatility amid crypto’s tendency to react to these releases.

“PCE may be a bigger market mover than NVDA this week. Embrace the volatility,” one user on X observed.

BTC Price Performance
BTC Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

BeInCrypto data shows Bitcoin was trading for $95,437 as of this writing, down by 1.1% since Monday’s session opened.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Montana Says No to State Bitcoin Holdings

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Montana lawmakers have rejected House Bill 429 during the House floor session. The bill would have allowed the state to hold Bitcoin (BTC) as a state asset.

This comes after the bill advanced through the Business and Labor Committee with a 12-8 vote last week.

Montana Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill Rejected

House Bill 429 also included provisions for investing in precious metals and stablecoins. Meanwhile, Bitcoin was the only digital asset that met the $750 billion market cap requirement.

Representative Curtis Schomer called it “a precious bill for the treasury state.” He emphasized the need to diversify state reserves amid concerns over inflation and federal political shifts.

“The dollar is not as strong as we think, and we should not be putting all of our eggs in one basket,” he said.

Schomer highlighted precious metals as a historical hedge against economic uncertainty and digital assets as a modern investment with long-term growth potential. He stressed that digital assets have the potential for exponential returns.

“Montana will have more control over its economic development and not be susceptible to federal political turmoil,” Schomer added.

He also noted that the bill move would help drive the state’s economic growth.

Nonetheless, the bill was rejected in a 41-59 vote. The proposal faced a largely partisan split. However, many Republicans joined Democrats in opposition.

“HB 429 failed in the House, largely due to fiscal conservative opposition,” Bitcoin Laws posted on X (formerly Twitter).

According to Bitcoin Laws, fiscal conservatives were divided on Bitcoin-related legislation. Some argue that using taxpayer money for Bitcoin investments is too risky and amounts to speculation.

“It’s still taxpayer money, and we’re responsible for it, and we need to protect it,” State Representative Steven Kelly said.

Meanwhile, proponents countered that calculated risks are necessary to grow state assets, particularly amid inflation. They described it as a greater threat to taxpayers. In addition, they framed Bitcoin as a tool to preserve and potentially increase the value of state reserves over time.

Despite an amendment attempt to fund the bill with American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) interest instead of general funds, lawmakers questioned the legality of such a move, further undermining support. 

With the rejection of HB 429, Montana joined Wyoming, North Dakota, Mississippi, and Pennsylvania, where similar Bitcoin-related legislation has failed. Meanwhile, 20 other states have active proposals under consideration.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index Sinks Below Zero Again — Impact On Price?

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The price of BTC could be stuck in consolidation for longer than initially anticipated, as the latest on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has dropped back beneath zero. What does this dwindling metric signal for the premier cryptocurrency?

Is The Bitcoin Price At Risk Of Downward Movement?

In a recent post on the X platform, prominent crypto pundit Ali Martinez revealed that the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index has been declining, dropping back below a critical zone in recent days. The Coinbase Premium Index is an on-chain metric that tracks the difference between the BTC price on Coinbase (USD pair) and Binance (USDT pair).

This indicator can also provide insights into the difference in the buying and selling behaviors of the investors on the two crypto trading platforms. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index reflects the sentiment of the US institutional entities (the major players on Coinbase) and how it differs from those on global exchanges.

Typically, when the Bitcoin price premium on Coinbase rises or is a positive value, it implies increasing demand from US investors, who are willing to spend more than other global investors to purchase the flagship cryptocurrency. On the other hand, the Coinbase Premium Index slipping beneath the zero mark signals that US investors are buying less compared to the global traders.

Bitcoin

Source: Ali_charts/X

This low buying activity is highlighted by the drab performance of spot BTC exchange-traded funds in recent weeks. The latest market data shows that the US Bitcoin ETF market registered a total outflow of $559 million in the past week.

With institutional and large US investors not accumulating Bitcoin at current prices, the market leader could struggle to build any real bullish momentum. Historically, a sustained decline of the Coinbase Premium Index metric has been associated with a consolidation period or even potential downside risk for the BTC price in the near term.

BTC Whales Offload Assets

In a separate post on X, Martinez observed that a class of Bitcoin investors has been trimming their holdings in recent weeks. Santiment data shows that whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 coins have sold 30,000 BTC (worth roughly $2.9 billion) in the past 10 days.

This level of selling activity somewhat explains the sluggish price action of Bitcoin in recent weeks. As of this writing, the price of BTC sits just above the $96,500 mark, reflecting a 0.8% increase in the past 24 hours. The premier cryptocurrency is down by 1.1% in the past week, according to data from CoinGceko.

Bitcoin

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView



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MicroStrategy Might Announce a Big Bitcoin Purchase Soon

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Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, may be gearing up for another significant Bitcoin purchase.

Speculation around this move intensified after the company’s co-founder, Michael Saylor, dropped a subtle hint on social media.

Market Buzz Over Saylor’s Bitcoin Tracker Post

On February 23, Saylor shared a Bitcoin tracker on X (formerly Twitter), a move that has historically preceded major acquisitions. His cryptic message suggested that recent Bitcoin transactions were not yet reflected in the tracker.

“I don’t think this reflects what I got done last week,” Saylor wrote on X.

Strategy's Bitcoin Purchase Markers
Strategy’s Bitcoin Purchase Markers. Source: Saylortracker

Given his history of sharing similar charts before major Bitcoin acquisitions, the crypto community quickly speculated that the firm was preparing for another purchase.

“Michael Saylor posted his BTC purchase tracker again, meaning Strategy will announce another Big Bitcoin purchase tomorrow,” Nikolaus Hoffman said.

Meanwhile, some speculate that Strategy may allocate up to $2 billion for Bitcoin, aligning with its recent move to raise funds through convertible bonds.

These bonds, which carry no interest but can be converted into company stock, are expected to mature in March 2030 and will serve as unsecured senior obligations.

This capital raise is part of Strategy’s “21/21 Plan,” which aims to secure $42 billion for BTC investments. The company seeks to raise $21 billion through equity sales and another $21 billion via fixed-income securities.

Once a software-focused firm, Strategy has evolved into the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Its pivot has significantly boosted investor interest, earning its stock a spot in the Nasdaq-100.

The firm’s last Bitcoin acquisition occurred on February 10, when it purchased 7,633 BTC for $742.4 million. At present, Strategy holds 478,740 BTC, valued at approximately $47 billion, with an overall investment of $31.1 billion.

Meanwhile, the company recently highlighted that its MSTR convertible bonds have returned 71% since issuance, outperforming Bitcoin itself.

Strategy's MSTR Stock Performance vs. Bitcoin.
Strategy’s MSTR Stock Performance vs. Bitcoin. Source: Strategy

Also, Strategy’s aggressive BTC-first approach has inspired other companies to follow suit. According to HODL15 Capital, over 70 publicly traded firms worldwide have now added Bitcoin to their reserves, influenced by Saylor’s Strategy.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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