Analysts say the crypto market should brace for a wave of token unlocks totaling $17 billion by the end of April, raising concerns about devaluation and market saturation.

This follows a recent market event that saw nearly $10 billion in long liquidations, further straining liquidity.

TGEs and Market Saturation Spell Trouble for New Projects, Analysts Say

BeInCrypto reported on a historic crypto liquidation event provoked by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. However, Bybit CEO Ben Zhou estimated that crypto liquidations after US tariffs could have been between $8-$10 billion, far exceeding reported figures.

Analysts now warn that the market is increasingly unwilling to support new execution environments that lack unique value propositions.

“The market can no longer absorb execution environments that add no value,” the analyst wrote.

While they cite post-token generation event (TGE) struggles among numerous projects, this perspective aligns with recent reports indicating crypto investors’ shifting focus from meme coins to altcoins with real-world value.

Citing Messari, a recent analysis by DeFi researcher Monk highlights the performance struggles of multiple blockchain projects post-TGE. Since their token launches, projects such as Starknet, Mode, Blast, zkSync, Scroll, and Dymension have experienced sharp declines.

The stark exception to this trend is Hyperliquid, whose HYPE token price has soared by 1100%. This highlights the rarity of success amid a sea of struggling chains.

Historically, large-scale token unlocks have hurt prices. A study by Keyrock Research found that 90% of token unlocks lead to price declines, as increased supply often outstrips demand. When vesting schedules release many tokens into circulation, early investors and insiders frequently cash out, intensifying selling pressure.

Arthur, founder and CIO of Defiance Capital, reinforces this perspective. He highlights significant declines in TVL (total value locked) among most of these chains after their token launches.

“This indicates not only weak token demand but also challenges in attracting and retaining users and liquidity,” Arthur added.

Analyst Explains Why New Chains Are Struggling

Notably, data on DefiLlama shows projects like Scroll and Blast have seen their TVL drop by more than 80% since their TGEs. The broader trend suggests that the market has an oversupply of blockspace.

According to the Defiance Capital executive, new Layer 1 (L1) and Layer 2 (L2) chains are increasingly having difficulty differentiating themselves. The challenge comes as established networks like Solana (SOL) and other prominent L2 solutions continue to thrive.

“The Solana Singularity. 2024’s crop of L1s and L2s launched, pumped, and plummeted. TVL drained; speculation faded, and zero sticky demand. Meanwhile, Solana just keeps winning,” another user, DefiBanked.sol on X, remarked.

The user emphasized that Solana’s strong fundamentals enable it to outpace newer chains. He cited Solana’s exceptional speed (400ms block times) and ultra-low transaction fees. According to the analyst, additional valuables on Solana include its thriving ecosystem spanning DeFi and NFTs, meme coins, and real-world assets (RWAs).

The struggles of recent blockchain launches reveal a growing intolerance for redundancy. Projects that fail to justify their existence will find themselves relegated to irrelevance. Meanwhile, established networks with strong utility, user adoption, and liquidity dominate.

Therefore, developers and investors must shift their focus toward innovation. New chains risk becoming just another casualty in an increasingly competitive space without a clear and compelling use case.

Trading activity across the crypto market has once again slowed over the past 24 hours. This has contributed to a significant decline in the total market capitalization, which has dropped by over $50 billion. 

Amid this downturn, some altcoins have noted rallies, drawing attention from traders and investors.

B3 (Base)

The newly launched B3 token is one of the most talked-about altcoins today. Its rally has extended by another 162% in the past 24 hours. 

The setup of its Directional Movement Index (DMI) on a four-hour chart shows that buying pressure exceeds selling activity among B3 traders. At press time, its positive directional index (+DI) (blue) rests above its negative directional index (-DI) (orange). 

The DMI measures the strength of a trend by comparing the price movements in an upward direction (+DI) and downward direction (-DI). When an asset’s +DI is above its -DI, it suggests that the prevailing market trend is bullish, with upward price movement gaining strength.

If B3’s uptrend strengthens, its price could break above the resistance at $0.016 and attempt to revisit its all-time high of $0.019.

However, its price could slip to $0.011 if bearish trends gain momentum. 

Solayer (LAYER)

Solayer is a re-staking protocol built within Solana. Its native token, LAYER, is a trending altcoin today because of its just-concluded genesis airdrop conducted on Tuesday. 

According to the project, the genesis drop will grant immediate access to tokens for the initial claimants. Following this, users can claim additional tokens over the next six months through a mechanism known as “Epochs.”

However, with some token recipients selling their holdings, LAYER is under slight downward pressure. Its value has declined by 4.21% over the past 24 hours. At press time, the altcoin trades at $1.12.

If token selloffs continue, LAYER will extend this price drop and trade below $1 at $0.92.

On the other hand, if selling activity is reduced and buying pressure spikes, this bearish projection will be invalidated. In that case, LAYER’s price could break above $1.13 to trade at $1.21.

Berachain (BERA)

Since its launch, Berachain’s BERA has had a lackluster performance, struggling to gain momentum amid challenging market conditions. Currently trading at $5.49, it has experienced an 8.4% decline in price over the past 24 hours.

At press time, BERA’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), assessed on a four-hour chart, is below the 50-neutral line at 39.48. This momentum indicator measures an asset’s oversold and overbought market conditions.

At 39.48, BERA’s RSI indicates that the altcoin is in a neutral to slightly oversold condition, suggesting potential for downward momentum or an eventual price reversal if the trend weakens further.

If the downtrend continues, BERA could trade at $3.93.

However, if it witnesses a bullish reversal, its price could rally to $8.11.

Solana has struggled to breach the critical $201 resistance level, falling below it a week ago. Despite favorable market conditions that could support a recovery, the lack of investor confidence remains a significant concern. 

For Solana to make meaningful progress, it will need increased backing from the market.  

Solana Is Not Facing Bearishness

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio for Solana currently stands at 1.40, a level that has historically been a precursor to price increases. This low MVRV indicates that the asset is not overvalued, which is crucial for maintaining market stability. The lower valuation helps keep selling pressure in check, offering a shot at recovery.  

A healthy MVRV ratio suggests that Solana may have room to grow without triggering a significant sell-off. This favorable condition provides a foundation for potential upside, especially if investor sentiment shifts positively. For now, the MVRV signals that the market is still cautiously optimistic about Solana’s future.  

Solana’s broader momentum remains mixed, with technical indicators like the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) showing ongoing struggles. Although there has been an uptick in inflows, the CMF remains below the zero line, indicating that the positive movements are overshadowed by outflows. This suggests that investor skepticism continues to weigh on the altcoin’s performance.  

Despite recent inflows, the fact that Solana has not yet seen sustained buying activity underscores the cautious nature of its investor base. Until the CMF crosses the zero line decisively, the altcoin may continue facing resistance in securing consistent upward movement. 

SOL Price Prediction: Key Barrier Ahead

Solana is currently trading at $195, holding above key support at $183. Additionally, the altcoin is maintaining its uptrend line, which has been in place for over a month and a half. This suggests that the macro outlook remains positive, and the market is positioning itself for a potential recovery.  

The mixed market signals indicate that Solana could soon manage to flip the $201 resistance into support. However, even with this potential shift, reaching $221 will be challenging unless there is a more significant shift in investor sentiment. The path to higher price targets will require stronger buying pressure.  

On the other hand, if Solana fails to breach the $201 barrier once again, it could continue to struggle below $200. A prolonged inability to break through this resistance may weaken investor confidence, leading to further tests of the $183 support. If this level is breached, it could signal additional downside risk for SOL.