Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded massive volatility over the last several weeks, rising past the $100,000 milestone only to retrace to the $90,000 range. This has sparked debate over whether the crypto market has topped, drawing opinions from various analysts and traders.

Despite market fluctuations, many remain optimistic about the future trajectory of Bitcoin and altcoins, while others caution against unchecked bullish sentiment.

Optimism for Q1 and Bitcoin’s Bullish Trend

Crypto Rover remains confident that history will repeat itself, maintaining that Bitcoin’s price target remains steadfast at $175,000. According to the renowned analyst, a bullish breakout is imminent.

“Q1 is always bullish for altcoins. This time will not be any different. I trust history,” Rover remarked.

Meanwhile, some analysts urge investors to shift their focus away from short-term market tops. Instead, they should concentrate on identifying strong communities with longevity, citing a “war of attrition” in the crypto space.

HODL Protocol reinforces that momentum should guide decision-making rather than an obsession with whether the market has peaked. Their advice is to stay adaptable and focus on long-term gains.

In the same tone, Crypto Nova, a seasoned investor, cautions against attempting to time market tops. Instead, she recommends taking profits gradually, regardless of whether the market continues to rise. This strategy, she argues, will ultimately outperform most traders.

“Hear it from someone that has been here for quite a while: Don’t ever try to time to the top on anything. Not on Bitcoin, not on your favorite alts, not on anything. Eventually, the goal is to take profits before the top of the market happens. Regardless if it keeps running or not. Do that and you’ll outperform almost anyone in this entire space,” the analyst quipped.

Trump’s Influence on Bitcoin and the Crypto Market

Elsewhere, analyst Crypthoem presents an intriguing theory regarding the Trump family’s influence on the crypto market. He suggests that strategic announcements regarding tariffs and liquidity events have been used to depress altcoin prices, making Ethereum (ETH) an attractive buy for major investors.

“Release TRUMP Sucks liquidity out of all alts, allows world liberty fi to buy cheap ETH. Release MELANIA Dumps all alts, allows world liberty fi to buy cheap ETH. Announcing tariffs causes a liquidation cascade in an already weak altcoin market, allowing the world liberty fi to buy cheap ETH. Calls of tariffs bags have been filled,” Hoem wrote.

This theory implies that these events create shakeouts that ultimately benefit well-positioned players.

Nachi, a top trader on Binance, sees a pattern in Trump’s market influence. He suggests the recent tariff news was a deliberate political maneuver to create a crisis, shake out traders, and allow major investors to accumulate Ethereum at lower prices. He believes this cycle will repeat with China, leading to further shakeouts before another major price rally.

Ran Neuner, founder of Crypto Banter, reiterates this allusion, referencing Eric Trump’s tweet suggesting, “It’s a great time to add ETH.” The tweet was later edited, leading analysts like Duo Nine to speculate about potential insider knowledge.

“The Trumps are the ultimate KOL,” Neuner remarked.

However, The DeFi Investor counters this view, arguing that Trump’s DeFi project had already purchased over $100 million worth of Ethereum before Trump’s tariff announcement. This means their holdings also suffered.

Caution Amid Market Uncertainty

Despite the optimism, some analysts are urging caution. Andrew Kang believes the recent rally was a massive mechanical bounce and advises traders to take profits while they can.

“Massive mechanical bounce today. If you made good profits, IMO it is a good spot to secure them. Easy mode is over for alts. Mean reversion buyers turn into mean reversion sellers. There will be more great buying opportunities in February/March,” Kang advised.

In the same tone, Binaso advises traders to cash out profits into their bank accounts instead of stablecoins or other crypto assets. The analyst encourages a disciplined approach to securing gains. Others add to the skepticism, highlighting excessive leverage in the market as traders have been front-running Bitcoin’s rise since $15,000. Nevertheless, with open interest still at extreme levels, chances of a correction remain high.

Sachin Sharma, a market analyst, refutes the notion of an imminent crash. He points out that true market tops are typically marked by excessive speculation and unsustainable valuations, which, in his view, have not yet materialized. He also argues that AI-driven innovations are more likely to fuel growth than cause a downturn.

“Market tops near when IPO and speculative growth tech is going up with no revenue to back. As a sector, tech financial metrics are still within 1-sigma to mean. And BTW the whole AI saga which is leading the market to dip today comes with a promise that you can use AI to improve productivity, products, cash cycle, lower costs, and higher revenues,” the analyst challenged.

However, Evanss6 takes a firm stance, estimating a 90-95% chance the cycle has topped. 

As the debate over whether the crypto market has topped remains highly contentious, traders must navigate the market cautiously. Balancing optimism with risk management strategies to maximize gains ultimately, but investors must also conduct their own research.

BeInCrypto data shows BTC was trading for $98,900 as of this writing, up by over 5% since Tuesday’s session opened.

An analyst on social media platform X has highlighted a crucial support level for PEPE, as the meme coin faces a significant drawdown from its recent highs. Based on historical price trends, the analyst noted that PEPE has consistently experienced an average drawdown of approximately 64% following each local peak. The ongoing correction has placed PEPE around this retracement level, and the meme coin is now in a precarious position where its ability to maintain support could determine whether it stabilizes and resumes an upward trajectory or falls into deeper decline.

PEPE’s Historical Drawdowns And The 64% Correction Pattern

Price data from CoinGecko reveals that PEPE, the popular meme coin, is currently down by approximately 67.3% from its all-time high of $0.00002803, which it reached on December 9, 2024. Notably, the recent downturn intensified with a sharp 25.3% drop in the past 24 hours due to the broader decline across the crypto market.

A crypto analyst on social media platform X highlighted a recurring pattern in PEPE’s price history, noting that the meme coin tends to experience an average drawdown of around 64% following each local peak before stabilizing and rebounding. This trend has repeated multiple times on the weekly candlestick timeframe, reinforcing a consistent cycle of sharp corrections and subsequent recoveries.

The first major retracement occurred between March and April 2024, when the asset declined by 63.75% after reaching an all-time high of $0.000010003. This correction, while severe, eventually led to a strong rebound, allowing PEPE to set new highs. A similar scenario unfolded between May and July 2024, when the meme coin suffered a 66% decline before regaining bullish momentum, ultimately pushing its price to its current all-time high in December.

As noted by the analyst, these periods of declines after reaching a new high have always been propped up by the 50 EMA indicator. At the time of writing, PEPE is now trading around this EMA, and its ability to maintain its position above it is crucial for avoiding a deeper decline. If the price holds at this level, it could mark the beginning of a recovery, whereas a strong breakdown below it might trigger further selling pressure.

What’s Next For Price?

The overall cryptocurrency market cap has declined by approximately 10% in the past 24 hours, contributing to a bearish sentiment surrounding PEPE. This widespread market downturn increases the risk of extending the meme coin’s breakdown below the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA). The latest weekly candlestick has already shown signs of slipping below this critical support level, and the prevailing bearish momentum could further solidify this move if selling pressure persists across the market.

At the time of writing, PEPE is trading at $0.000009279, while the 50-week EMA sits around the $0.000011 mark. This indicates that the meme coin has already fallen approximately 15% below this support level. However, the situation is not entirely bad. Given the heightened volatility over the past 24 hours, a quick market recovery could see the meme coin rebounding alongside broader crypto assets and return to retesting resistance at $0.00001313.

Featured image from Medium, chart from Tradingview.com