Ethereum’s price action is showing signs of an impending breakout as it moves back and forth within a falling wedge pattern on the daily candlestick time frame chart. According to an analysis first posted on the TradingView platform, this formation is a strong bullish signal that could push the Ethereum price toward $3,800 if history repeats itself. 

The falling wedge, which is generally known to be a bullish price action structure, is developing between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages for Ethereum, in line with a similar pattern from that preceded an Ethereum price rally last year.

Ethereum Repeating Falling Wedge Pattern

Ethereum has largely underperformed this cycle without any clear breakout yet. Furthermore, the cryptocurrency has yet to recover towards its 2021 all-time high unlike many of its other crypto counterparts with large market caps. 

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Technical analysis of the current Ethereum price action shows that the leading altcoin has been trading in a decline since the beginning of the year. This decline has been characterized by the formation of lower highs and lower lows, which is quite like a falling wedge pattern. What’s very interesting is that this wedge pattern on the Ethereum price chart is developing between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which makes it even more peculiar.

The TradingView analyst highlighted that the current falling wedge price structure mirrors the March 2024 pattern, which saw Ethereum forming a triple bottom before breaking out and reaching the 0.786 Fibonacci extension level. If the same scenario unfolds, the current falling wedge could serve as a launchpad for a price surge towards a target at the $3,800 level. This represents a potential 20% upside from Ethereum’s current trading range.

Resistance Levels Could Delay the Rally

At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $3,180, up 1% in the past 24 hours. This marks a steady climb from the lower end of the wedge pattern, bringing the cryptocurrency closer to breaking above the upper trendline around $3,250. 

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While the technical setup leans bullish after the predicted breakout, it is important to note that Ethereum faces a significant resistance hurdle between $3,400 and $3,500. Sellers positioned at this resistance zone have acted as a strong barrier in recent months, and they have successfully stalled previous attempts by the bulls to push higher.

If Ethereum fails to break through the upper end of this range, another temporary rejection could occur before any sustained move toward $3,800.

If Ethereum successfully clears the $3,500 resistance, it could pave the way for a more extended bullish trend, with $3,800 as the next logical target. Notably, this $3,800 target reflects a tempered outlook on Ethereum compared to past market expectations, a sentiment shaped by its recent price action. However, if strong bullish momentum builds toward $3,800, it could trigger an even larger push toward the $4,000 mark.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Speculations about Ethereum’s potential for a major upswing to a new all-time high in the ongoing cycle swells within the community as many wonder why ETH has underperformed compared to other altcoins. Several factors have been considered to have hindered ETH’s much-awaited rally including weak whale activity.

Is Large Investors’ Interest In Ethereum Fading?

The euphoria among whale Ethereum investors sparks worries as large-scale transaction volume fails to show any significant increase in the ongoing market cycle. Verified author at the CryptoQuant on-chain platform IT Tech underlined the negative trend, suggesting a lack of strong whale activity.

The development implies that high net worth and institutional investors are still cautious as major ETH transfers remain at a low range. With large transactions fading, ETH may face significant hurdles since whale activity typically fuels price increases.

IT Tech considers Ethereum’s large transactions to be low in contrast to past cycles such as 2017 and 2021, where these transfers were rampant. This goes to say that the market is more retail-driven and organic, rather than speculative mania.

While there have been small increases in whale activity, the expert outlined that they are not at levels that would indicate a sell-off or parabolic move. In the meantime, IT Tech urges investors to look out for unexpected spikes in whale activity since they typically come before significant price changes.

According to the expert, Ethereum is experiencing a gradual upward trend. However, the next significant change in market dynamics will be determined by whale movements. Presently, the altcoin has reclaimed the $3,000 mark as prices recover after a general market pullback, bringing the next crucial resistance point at $3,500. 

In order to confirm a break through the $3,500 mark, IT Tech claims there must be an increase in large transaction volume. If ETH does not see a rise in these transactions, it could witness a consolidation phase or a notable pullback.

IT Tech expects a pullback toward the $2,800 and $2,500 level if the large transaction coincides with price weakness, which might lead to whale distribution and cause ETH to drop. With this subdued movement, ETH’s sustainability is being questioned, triggering uncertainty about its next big price action.

ETH’s Uptrend Set To Face Volatility?

ETH is hovering between $3,000 and $3,200 with slight bullish momentum. Nonetheless, crypto expert and trader, Titan of Crypto has identified a trend that might strengthen Ethereum’s upward movement in the coming days.

Examining ETH’s price on the daily chart, Titan of Crypto expects an upswing following a breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern. This pattern is supported by an impending RSI bullish divergence, which could fuel more price spikes toward key resistance levels.

Even though Ethereum is demonstrating upside potential, the expert believes that volatility may unfold shortly after the recently concluded FOMC meeting.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview.com

Ethereum performance has lagged behind the broader cryptocurrency market in recent months, with the asset failing to capitalize on the bullish momentum recently seen in the market.

While Bitcoin has repeatedly reached new all-time highs, Ethereum has struggled to break past $4,000 and remains well below its 2021 peak of $4,800.

Amid this slow recovery, a crypto analyst known as ProjectW has shared insights on the potential for Ethereum’s resurgence, urging investors to consider the long-term picture.

In a detailed post on X, ProjectW outlined several factors that could drive Ethereum’s next breakout. The analyst highlighted Ethereum’s years of accumulation within a broad trading range, suggesting that such prolonged consolidation often precedes significant price expansions.

Despite the negative sentiment around Ethereum and narratives favoring other networks like Solana, ProjectW emphasized that Ethereum’s long-term upward trend remains intact.

A possible retest of the sub-$ 3,000 range could serve as a catalyst, providing the liquidity needed to push Ethereum past $4,000 and set the stage for a broader recovery.

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ETH/BTC Performance And Outlook

A key point in ProjectW’s analysis is Ethereum’s ongoing underperformance against Bitcoin. So far, Ethereum has struggled to match Bitcoin’s gains during market rallies and has often faced steeper declines during market corrections.

This trend is reflected in the ETH/BTC trading pair, which remains in a bearish structure on higher timeframes. However, the analyst identified a potential reversal zone around $2,700 for Ethereum, which could coincide with a structural shift if ETH/BTC stabilizes at these levels.

THE BIG COMEBACK OF ETHEREUM: An Unbiased Evaluation

“Ethereum is dead. Solana stole the show.”

You’ve probably heard this take a hundred times.

The sentiment around ETH has never been worse.

And yet – if we strip away emotions and narratives – Ethereum’s long-term… pic.twitter.com/ipkXvuXbnj

— ProjectW (@fitforcrypto_) January 29, 2025

The analyst also touched on the role of market makers and institutional players in shaping Ethereum’s price trajectory. According to ProjectW, recent negative coverage of Ethereum—ranging from concerns about the Ethereum Foundation to repeated comparisons with Bitcoin—may not be coincidental.

Instead, it could represent a deliberate effort by major market participants to accumulate Ethereum at lower prices, a pattern observed in past market cycles.

The involvement of institutional players, such as Trump-affiliated World Liberty Financial reportedly acquiring significant amounts of Ethereum, adds another layer of complexity to the current market dynamics. The analyst wrote:

We know how this game works. MMs move price where they want – especially to areas with high liquidity. And how do they do it? Media narratives. Recently, we’ve seen an aggressive push of ETH FUD in major publications. – The Ethereum Foundation being questioned – ETH’s underperformance against BTC being highlighted everywhere Is this really a coincidence? Or is it the same old SM playbook? Flood the market with FUD → Retail panic sells at the bottom → Institutions accumulate.

Ethereum’s Core Strengths and Future Outlook

Despite recent underperformance, the analyst argued that Ethereum’s core fundamentals remain strong. ProjectW wrote:

Despite all the noise, Ethereum remains the most important smart contract network. – The deepest liquidity in DeFi – The highest security & decentralization – It has the strongest developer ecosystem While sentiment is at rock bottom, the actual fundamentals suggest ETH is still the backbone of the space. So where does this leave us?

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While no rally is guaranteed, ProjectW suggested that Ethereum’s long-term conditions are aligning for potential growth. The analyst concluded with a call to closely monitor Ethereum’s progress in the coming weeks, as market participants await signs of a sustained upward trend.

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView