The Bitcoin price rally towards the $100,000 mark is the talk of the crypto industry. Notably, the Bitcoin price has reached new all-time highs for four consecutive days on the path to this $100,000 price level, with the latest being an intraday high of $99,645 in the past 24 hours. 

Interestingly, the ongoing bullish sentiment suggests this rally is far from over. According to one crypto (Stockmoney Lizards), Bitcoin is still in the middle of its projected peak this cycle, and the current pump is just one phase of a larger upward trajectory.

Satoshimeter Says Bitcoin Price Still Has A Long Way To Go

The Satoshimeter is a technical analysis tool developed by Stockmoney Lizards. The Satoshimeter uses on-chain data to monitor Bitcoin’s market cycles and has been relatively good in predicting market peaks and lows. For instance, readings around 1.6 typically mark the low points of bear markets, as seen in years like 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022. On the other hand, the peaks of bull markets are highlighted by readings above 20 on the Satoshimeter.

The Bitcoin price rally has witnessed a notable surge since the beginning of the year and is showing no signs of stopping anytime soon. Particularly, the Bitcoin price is up by 163% in the past 12 months, according to Coinmarketcap data. Despite Bitcoin’s ongoing rally, the Satoshimeter currently sits in a mid-range area, suggesting that the cryptocurrency has substantial room for growth before reaching a cycle peak. 

Stockmoney Lizards emphasized that while the recent price surge might see short-term corrections, these are part of a healthy market trajectory. This implies that the Bitcoin price could see periodic pullbacks as it consolidates gains, but the Bitcoin price at $100,000 is definitely not the peak for this cycle.

Long Road Ahead For BTC Price

A final break above $100,000 would undoubtedly be a major milestone for the Bitcoin price history. However, the current market sentiment suggests it would only be the first step of many milestones to hit this bull cycle. For instance, crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards projected in another analysis that the Bitcoin price is about to enter a second parabolic run that would see it surging past the $120,000 price mark by April 2025.

Although this price target is very bullish, it pales in comparison to projections from other crypto analysts. PlanB, the creator of the popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, has put forth an even more ambitious target. He suggests that Bitcoin could reach trade for as high as $1,000,000 by December 2025. Despite these ambitious targets, caution is warranted, particularly as Bitcoin appears to be approaching an overheated zone on the MVRV ratio indicator.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $98,550.

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Crypto markets will witness $3.42 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts expire today. The massive expiration could cause a short-term price impact, particularly as markets wait expectantly for Bitcoin to tag $100,000.

With Bitcoin options valued at $2.86 billion and Ethereum at $561.66 million, traders are bracing for potential volatility.

Unlike Ethereum, Traders Bet On Bitcoin Price Pullback

There has been a significant increase in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) contracts due for expiry today compared to last week. According to Deribit data, 28,905 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday with a put-to-call ratio of 1.09 and a maximum pain point of $86,000.

On the other hand, 164,687 Ethereum contracts are due for expiry today, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.66 and a maximum pain point of $3,050.

Bitcoin’s Put-to-call ratio stands above 1, indicating a generally bearish sentiment despite BTC’s whales and long-term holders fueling its recent growth. In comparison, Ethereum counterparts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.66, reflecting a generally bullish market outlook.

The put-to-call ratio gauges market sentiment. Put options represent bets on price declines, whereas call options point to bets on price increases.

When this ratio is above 1, it suggests a lack of optimism in the market, with more traders betting on price decreases. On the other hand, a put-to-call ratio below 1 suggests optimism in the market, and more traders are betting on price increases.

Bitcoin’s Put-to-Call Ratio, Implications for BTC

As options near expiration, traders are betting on BTC prices dropping and ETH prices rising. According to the Max Pain Theory in options trading, BTC and ETH could each pull toward their maximum pain points (strike prices) of $86,000 and $3,050, respectively. Here, the largest number of contracts — both calls and puts — would expire worthless.

Notably, price pressure for both assets will ease after Deribit settles contracts at 08:00 UTC today. At the time of writing, however, BTC was trading for $98,876, whereas ETH was exchanging hands for $3,389. Meanwhile, in line with put-to-call ratios, analysts at Greeks.live anticipate an extended move north for ETH and say BTC is at the cusp of a correction.

“With about 8% of positions expiring this week, the big rally in Ethereum has led to a significant increase in ETH major term options IV [implied volatility], while BTC major term options IV has remained relatively stable. The market sentiment remains extremely optimistic at this point,” Greeks.live analysts said.

The analysts also note that while Bitcoin risks a correction, the generalized market rally keeps this potential pullback at bay. They ascribe the positive sentiment in the market to significant capital inflows into ETFs (exchange-traded funds), specifically BlackRock’s IBIT options, which started to trade only recently alongside a strongly driven spot bull market.

Nevertheless, with today’s high-volume expiration, traders should anticipate fluctuations in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices that could shape their short-term trends.

Marathon Digital Holdings, one of the largest Bitcoin miners, has completed a record $1 billion offering of 0% convertible senior notes due 2030. The net proceeds from the sale were approximately $980 million.

According to the firm’s statement, the net proceeds will be primarily used to buy Bitcoin. 

Marathon Digital Holds over $2.5 Billion Worth of Bitcoin

After its last purchase in September, Marathon Digital’s Bitcoin holdings stand at 25,945 BTC. This is currently worth approximately $2.52 billion, as Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $98,000 earlier today. 

However, the company’s decision to expand its holdings potentially points to a larger bullish cycle for the token in the long term. According to its press release, Marathon Digital plans to use $199 million of the net proceeds to repurchase existing convertible notes due 2026. 

The remainder will be used to acquire additional Bitcoin and for general corporate purposes. Marathon Digital is currently the second largest Bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies. 

The notes offer flexibility, with options for conversion into cash, shares of Marathon’s common stock, or a combination of both. Redemption terms include the ability for the company to redeem the notes at full principal value plus accrued interest. 

“$1 Billion. 0% interest. MARA has completed the largest convertible notes offering ever amongst BTC miners. The mission, as always: Provide value. Acquire #bitcoin,” the company wrote on X (formerly Twitter). 

Increasing Bitcoin Acquisition Among Public Firms 

Marathon Digital is following an ongoing trend of public companies increasing their Bitcoin holdings in this bull market.  Earlier this week, MicroStrategy announced plans to issue $1.75 billion in convertible notes maturing in 2029. The proceeds will be used to fund additional Bitcoin purchases. 

On the same day, the company secured $4.6 billion worth of Bitcoin, building on a $2 billion acquisition from the prior week. 

Bitcoin’s all-time high and these aggressive purchases propelled MicroStrategy’s stock price by nearly 120% in a single month. The largest Bitcoin holder also entered the list of top 100 public companies in the US. 

Meanwhile, Marathon Digital has faced challenges despite its growing Bitcoin reserves. The company reported a $125 million net loss in Q3. This was driven by a $92 million year-over-year increase in operating costs. 

However, its operational capacity has strengthened. Earlier this month, its energized hash rate surged by 93%, signaling increased mining efficiency. Marathon Digital also signed an $80 million agreement with the Keynan government to expand its Bitcoin mining capabilities.