Ethereum
Ethereum A Ticking Bomb? Derivatives Metrics Break Records
Data shows the Ethereum derivatives-related metrics have shot up recently, a sign that the price is at risk of going through a volatile storm.
Ethereum Open Interest & Leverage Ratio Have Both Spiked Recently
In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed about the trend in the derivatives indicators of Ethereum. The metrics in question are the Open Interest and the Estimated Leverage Ratio.
First, the Open Interest keeps track of the total amount of ETH-related contracts that are currently open on all derivatives platforms. The metric naturally takes into account for both long and short positions.
When the value of this metric rises, it means the investors are opening up fresh positions on the market. Such a trend suggests derivatives trading interest in the coin is going up.
On the other hand, the indicator registering a drawdown implies positions in the market are going down. This could be because of investors willfully closing them up, or due to exchanges forcibly liquidating them.
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Ethereum Open Interest over the last few years:
The value of the metric appears to have been shooting up in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant
The above graph shows that the Ethereum Open Interest has witnessed rapid growth recently. It has surpassed the previous all-time high (ATH) to set a new record above $13 billion.
When considering the timeframe of the past four months, the indicator has increased by over 40%, which suggests an explosion in speculative interest around the cryptocurrency has occurred.
This development, however, may not be the healthiest, as the trend in the second indicator of relevance, the Estimated Leverage Ratio, would suggest. This metric measures the ratio between the Open Interest and the Derivatives Exchange Reserve.
The Derivatives Exchange Reserve is naturally just the total amount of the cryptocurrency sitting in wallets associated with all centralized derivatives exchanges.
The Estimated Leverage Ratio tells us the amount of leverage or loan that the average derivatives user in the Ethereum market is currently opting for.
Below is a chart for this indicator.
Looks like the value of the metric has been heading up over the last few weeks | Source: CryptoQuant
From the graph, it’s apparent that the Ethereum Estimated Leverage Ratio has shot up recently. This would mean that the increase in the Open Interest has been more rapid than the rise in the Derivatives Exchange Reserve.
The investors are now sitting on all-time high (ATH) leverage, which can be a bad sign for ETH as it implies any volatility in the future could take down the overleveraged positions and induce a mass liquidation event called a squeeze.
The quant has pointed out that the Ethereum Funding Rate, a ratio between long and short positions, is positive right now, which suggests that if a squeeze is to happen shortly, it’s more likely to involve the bullish side of the market.
ETH Price
At the time of writing, Ethereum is floating around $3,000, down almost 7% over the past week.
The price of the coin seems to have been consolidating sideways recently | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView
Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The Ethereum price has formed a key technical pattern reminiscent of the one observed in 2017 when the cryptocurrency embarked on a major bull rally. According to a crypto analyst, this pattern, known as the ‘Bullish Megaphone‘, could signal a possible price rise to $10,000 for ETH.
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Bullish Megaphone Sets Stage For Ethereum Price Rise To $10,000
A Blockchain and crypto technical analyst, identified as ‘EtherNasyonal,’ on X (formerly Twitter), has predicted that the Ethereum price could soon surpass $10,000. According to the analyst, Ethereum‘s price action currently showcases a historical chart pattern, the Bullish Megaphone, observed during the 2016 to 2017 bull market.
The Bullish Megaphone pattern is a technical indicator consisting of two higher highs and two lower lows, often indicating a potential uptrend continuation for a cryptocurrency. This technical pattern is considered bullish when a cryptocurrency’s price breaks above the trend line with increasing volume.
Looking at the analyst’s Ethereum price chart from 2016 to 2017 and another for 2024 to 2025, the Bullish megaphone pattern has formed in both bull cycles. Moreover, at the end of the key technical pattern in 2017, the Ethereum price skyrocketed to new price levels, surpassing the $1,200 mark by 2018.
EtherNasyonal has suggested that as Ethereum repeats this pattern in the current bull market, it could signal a similar massive price surge, with a potential rally above $10,000. As of writing, CoinMarketCap reveals that the price of Ethereum is trading at $3,353, marking a 7.24% surge in the last seven days. At its current price, a rally to the $10,000 mark would represent a 198% increase for Ethereum, highlighting a substantial surge in value.
The analyst has also noted that altcoins will likely follow Ethereum’s bullish momentum and experience a similar uptrend. This price rally in ETH could further impact the future trajectory of altcoins in the crypto market this bullish cycle.
Is The Altcoin Season Here?
Historically, Ethereum has been a significant catalyst or determining factor to the start of the highly anticipated altcoin season. While Bitcoin’s dominance tends to decline significantly around this period after experiencing a remarkable bull run, altcoins typically follow this bullish trajectory, with Ethereum taking the lead as it trails behind Bitcoin’s price rally.
MikyBull Crypto, a prominent analyst on X, declared that the altcoin season for this current bull cycle has officially begun. For clarity, the altcoin season is after Bitcoin’s consolidation phase, which follows a rally, where smaller-cap cryptocurrencies begin a strong market rally.
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MikyBull Crypto has optimistically revealed that from late December 2024 to March 2025, investors and the broader crypto market may witness “the real fun” of the altcoin season. This suggests that the altcoin market is expected to embark on a significant rally, with numerous small-cap cryptocurrencies experiencing varying price increases.
Feaatured image from The Guardian, chart from TradingView
While Ethereum seems to have begun its own major rally, the asset has recently experienced significant activity on the Deribit Options Exchange which begs the question of what it means for ETH’s price.
A CryptoQuant analyst known as Amr Taha detailed these developments in a post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform. The analysis focused on substantial outflows from the exchange to cold wallets, highlighting potential implications for market sentiment and liquidity.
ETH Netflows On Deribit And The Implications
According to Taha, the Deribit Options Exchange recorded a notable transaction involving 233,000 ETH transferred to a cold wallet. Valued at approximately $783 million, the transaction was executed at an average price of $3,350 per Ethereum.
This was not limited to Ethereum alone—Bitcoin also witnessed a similar outflow, with 31,000 BTC worth $3.038 billion moved to cold storage. These transfers have sparked speculation about the motivations behind such activity and their potential impact on the broader market.
As a result, the CryptoQuant analyst highlighted four major implications of this movement. First, the reduction in selling pressure is notable. Assets stored in cold wallets are less likely to be sold immediately, which can decrease liquidity on exchanges.
Taha noted that this scenario may contribute to price stability or even further boost the bullish trend in the market if demand remains steady or increases.
Another key takeaway from these transactions is the possibility of institutional accumulation. Such large-scale transfers often indicate that institutional investors or high-net-worth individuals are confident in Ethereum’s long-term value.
Furthermore, Taha highlighted Deribit’s strategy of moving these funds as part of a risk management approach. The analyst wrote:
Moving assets to cold storage is a security practice to minimize exposure to hacking risks. It also reflects a cautious approach, likely due to regulatory scrutiny or anticipated market volatility.
Additionally, Taha highlighted that this move could also have impact on market sentiment where by traders could interpret these transactions as bullish, “leading to increased buying activity.”
Ethereum Market Performance
Meanwhile, Ethereum currently trades above the $3,300 mark following an increase of 8.2% in the past week and 1.3% in the past 24 hours. The asset’s market cap has also significantly surged alongside its price with a current valuation nearing $400 billion.
According to renowned crypto analyst known as EᴛʜᴇʀNᴀꜱʏᴏɴᴀL on X, Ethereum current price chart appears to be mirroring that of 2016-2017 where it experienced a “mega bull” run.
According to the analyst, “altcoins will follow” as Ethereum continues to increase.
#Ethereum $10k+ step by step!$ETH repeats the bullish megaphone pattern it drew while heading towards the 2016-2017 mega bull period, before the 2024-2025 mega bull period.#Alts will follow! pic.twitter.com/VRVI8lwnsS
— EᴛʜᴇʀNᴀꜱʏᴏɴᴀL
(@EtherNasyonaL) November 22, 2024
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Ethereum surged over 10% yesterday, marking an impressive recovery alongside a very bullish day for the entire crypto market. This surge has reignited investor optimism, especially as Ethereum approaches its yearly highs.
Key data from CryptoQuant highlights a significant bullish signal: Ethereum’s Taker Buy Volume hit an astonishing $1.683 billion in a single hourly candle. This metric reflects aggressive buying activity in the futures market, further supporting Ethereum’s potential for continued upward momentum.
The driving force behind this rising demand for Ethereum appears to stem from profits being cycled out of Bitcoin. With Bitcoin consistently breaking all-time highs, investors are reallocating gains into ETH, boosting its price. Ethereum’s ability to capitalize on Bitcoin’s momentum underscores its position as the second-largest cryptocurrency and a key player in the broader market trend.
However, the next few days will be crucial for Ethereum as it nears its yearly highs. A strong breakout above these levels could propel ETH into a new uptrend, further strengthening its bullish narrative.
Ethereum Bulls Waking Up
Ethereum bulls are finally showing signs of life after eight months of bearish price action, with the price surging over 40% since November 5. This strong upward momentum aligns with the broader market rally, fueling optimism that Ethereum’s recovery is just beginning. The resurgence in bullish sentiment has positioned Ethereum as a key focus for investors seeking opportunities in the current market environment.
According to data by CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn, Ethereum’s Taker Buy Volume recently hit $1.683 billion in a single hourly candle, highlighting significant demand and the involvement of high-volume trades.
This aggressive buying activity is a bullish signal, suggesting increased confidence in Ethereum’s potential to sustain its rally. Strong demand at this scale creates upward pressure on the price, reinforcing the bullish narrative for ETH.
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However, Ethereum still faces a critical hurdle at the $3,550 level, a significant supply zone that has acted as a barrier since late July. The next few days will be pivotal for Ethereum, as breaking above this key resistance could signal the continuation of its upward trajectory. Failure to do so, however, might result in a short-term consolidation. All eyes are now on ETH, as its next moves could set the tone for the altcoin market.
ETH Holding Above Key Levels
Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $3,333 after a 10% surge yesterday, marking a significant rebound for the second-largest cryptocurrency. The price is testing a critical supply zone just below the $3,450 level, a resistance area that bulls need to reclaim to confirm the uptrend and maintain momentum for new highs.
This supply zone has historically acted as a key barrier, and breaking above it with conviction would signal strong buying pressure and the potential for a sustained rally. Holding above the 200-day moving average (MA) at $2,959 further strengthens the bullish case for Ethereum, as this indicator is widely regarded as a benchmark for long-term price trends.
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Should Ethereum maintain its position above the 200-day MA and push decisively past the $3,450 level, it could pave the way for a bullish rally, targeting higher resistance zones in the coming days.
However, failure to overcome this supply area may result in short-term consolidation as bulls regroup to challenge the level again. For now, the market focuses on Ethereum’s ability to clear this crucial resistance and continue its upward trajectory.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
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