Ethereum’s recent price movement has shown a decline following a rally, even after ETH Whales made a comeback and Bitcoin reached a new all-time high. 

While ETH had gained momentum alongside the broader market surge, this recent drop could hinder a significant shift in Ethereum’s price trajectory, raising questions about its short-term outlook.

Ethereum Whales Aren’t Strong Enough

Ethereum whale activity has spiked, with transaction volume reaching over $13.8 billion, a three-month high. This uptick signals renewed interest from large wallet holders, a group that significantly influences ETH’s price trends. Such whale participation often leads to short-term surges in Ethereum’s value, as witnessed in the recent rally.

Despite the whale-driven increase, Ethereum’s price has faced resistance in maintaining its peak. This pattern reflects a mix of enthusiasm and caution among investors, as the heightened whale activity has yet to propel ETH past critical levels. The surge in whale activity may contribute to Ethereum’s ongoing resilience, but it also reveals the volatility inherent in the current market sentiment.

On the macro side, Ethereum’s momentum is being tested as its EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) inch closer to forming a Golden Cross. The 50-day EMA nearing a crossover with the 200-day EMA would confirm a Golden Cross, traditionally a bullish signal. However, ETH’s recent price dip may delay this bullish indicator.

The Golden Cross remains a crucial marker for Ethereum’s potential upward momentum, as a successful formation would validate a more sustained uptrend. Until then, the delay may result in more cautious trading as investors await clearer signals that the altcoin’s current trend can turn positive.

ETH Price Prediction: Finding Support

Last week, Ethereum’s price surged by 39%, pushing it above $3,327. Despite this gain, ETH failed to secure $3,327 as a support level, leading to a 6% drop over the last 72 hours. This downturn has pulled Ethereum further from the critical $3,524 resistance.

If the current decline continues, ETH could test the support level at $2,930. This could act as a buffer but might also signal additional downward movement if breached. 

However, a reversal fueled by Bitcoin’s ongoing strength could help ETH regain momentum toward $3,327. Turning this level into support would invalidate the bearish outlook and position Ethereum to target $3,524 as the next milestone.

Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has pointed to a promising technical setup in TOTAL3, fueling speculation that the altcoin season cycle may close. The analyst comments come as the broader crypto market sees a notable bounce, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly crossing $93,000 and several altcoins showing strong gains.

But how soon could altcoin season actually arrive? This analysis delves into other factors that could either ignite or delay the anticipated rally.

Altcoin Season on Standby, Analyst Says

For context, TOTAL3 is the entire market capitalization of the top 125 cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and Ethereum (ETH). Historically, when this metric rises, it indicates that altcoin season could be on the horizon as long as Bitcoin dominance drops.

Deutscher’s post on X (formerly Twitter) showed the TOTAL3 monthly chart, indicating that it had formed strong support. The post also revealed that the recent rise in altcoin prices has taken the market cap above notable resistance.

“TOTAL3 (altcoin index) monthly chart. Setup looks fantastic, honestly.” Deutscher wrote on X.

While the analyst’s opinion might be valid, one obstacle that could hinder the altcoin season cycle is Bitcoin’s dominance. Bitcoin dominance refers to the ratio of BTC’s market capitalization compared to the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market.

As of this writing, the BTC.D, as it is popularly known, is 61.33%. This indicates that the number one cryptocurrency still has a strong hold on the market. For alt season to commence, this ratio has to drop, which Deutscher himself admitted on November 12.

“Bitcoin dominance keeps grinding higher. Only when BTC dominance breaks down can a true alt season ignite.” The analyst emphasized.

Altcoins Surge Could Be Delayed Until BTC Drops

Currently, Blockchaincenter’s altcoin season index, which measures whether the market is in an alt season, has dropped one place to 29. About one week ago, the reading was 30. For confirmation, at least 75% of the top 50 cryptos need to outperform BTC.

Despite this uptick, the index remains well below the 75 threshold, as only 16 of the top cryptocurrencies have outpaced Bitcoin over the past 90 days.

Should that remain the case, then Bitcoin’s price might climb to a higher value before most altcoins hit new highs. However, if BTC experiences a double-digit correction, this could give way for alts to thrive.  If that happens, then alt season can officially begin.

Yesterday, the world’s largest asset manager, Blackrock, disclosed that it had expanded its tokenized money fund to other blockchains, including Move-programmed Apots (APT). This development sparked speculation that the Aptos token price could gain from it.

Initially, APT price climbed to $12.60. But as of this writing, the altcoin has dropped by 6.33%, suggesting that the integration with Blackrock is not enough to keep the price going high.

Aptos Falters Moments After Bullish Announcement

Blackrock’s announcement, which BeInCrypto reported earlier, coincided with the broader market rally, as the Aptos token price had increased by 21%. However, our finding shows that the drop in Open Interest (OI) was one reason that APT failed to hold on to the $12 mark. 

According to Santiment, APT’s OI attempted to approach $200 million on Wednesday, November 13. But it did not and has now dropped to $105.37 million.  Open Interest refers to the total number of active contracts in the futures market that have not yet been settled.

An increase in OI indicates more participants are entering the market, potentially strengthening the current trend. Conversely, a decrease in the metric may suggest that the trend is losing momentum.

Therefore, with the metric declining in Aptos’s case, there is a chance that the altcoin’s price might continue to decrease. Additionally, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator suggests that Aptos’ price may face challenges in staging a rebound.

For context, the CMF is an indicator developed to track the accumulation and distribution of an asset over a specific period. It ranges from -1 to +1. When the reading rises, it means that accumulation is ongoing, and the price can increase.

However, in APT’s situation, the reading has dropped, suggesting that selling pressure has begun to outpace buying pressure. Should this remain the same, Aptos’ price could slide lower than $11.69.

APT Price Prediction: Sub-$10 Likely

On the daily chart, Aptos faces resistance at $13.72, with support at $10.43, just below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the decline in trading volume, the price of Aptos could continue to slide, and bulls may struggle to maintain support at this level.

This is largely because low trading volume indicates a drop in market interest. As such, it could be challenging for buying pressure to increase. If this is the case, then APT’s price might drop to $9.85.

On the other hand, an increase in buying pressure could invalidate that prediction. Thus, if the accumulation of APT rises, the price might bounce toward $14.13.