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Arthur Hayes Predicts US Debt Could Push Bitcoin to $1 Million

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The US has grappled with a growing debt-to-GDP ratio for decades. In 2008, it took $4 trillion in credit to reduce this ratio from 132% to 115%.

According to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, cutting the ratio to 70%—where it stood in 2008—could demand $10.5 trillion in new credit. This massive credit expansion could spark major changes in asset prices, especially for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s Scarcity Advantage and American Debt

When a government creates trillions in new credit, it increases the money supply. This credit injection, in turn, often drives inflation, making fiat currencies less valuable. As a result, people look for alternatives to store their wealth safely.

Hayes argues that the upward trend affecting the crypto market following Donald Trump’s re-election is for good reason, citing Trump’s quantitative easing (QE) policies. QE refers to a monetary policy in which a central bank buys a set amount of government bonds to stimulate the economy by increasing available cash. When central banks inject liquidity, it often drives investors to pursue higher returns in alternative assets, which can lead to a rise in Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin, with its fixed supply of 21 million coins, stands in stark contrast to fiat currencies. Unlike the dollar, no entity can create more Bitcoin, making it a popular hedge against inflation. Arthur Hayes believes that with every dollar the US injects into the economy, Bitcoin becomes an even more attractive option.

For assets like Bitcoin, prices are set ‘on the margin.’ With fewer coins available, even small increases in demand can push prices up significantly. As more fiat money enters the economy, the demand for assets with fixed supplies grows.

“As the freely traded supply of Bitcoin dwindles, the most fiat money in history will be chasing a safe haven from not just Americans but Chinese, Japanese, and Western Europeans. Get long, and stay long,” said Hayes.

This debt-driven model mirrors elements of China’s approach to economic growth. For years, China has embraced a mix of state-directed capitalism with heavy government intervention. Hayes terms this approach in the US as “American Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics.” By following a similar model, the US could use debt-funded spending as a permanent economic tool.

This strategy creates an ongoing cycle. More debt means more inflation, which drives more demand for assets like Bitcoin. Arthur Hayes believes that this feedback loop could drive Bitcoin’s price upward, possibly to $1 million per coin.

If these predictions hold, Bitcoin could experience a historic price surge. As trillions flood the economy, Bitcoin’s fixed supply may make it the ultimate safe haven.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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57% of Investors Eye More Crypto

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Institutional interest in cryptocurrency has reached new heights. A recent survey by Sygnum Bank revealed that 57% of institutional investors and finance professionals plan to increase their exposure to crypto assets.

This enthusiasm reflects a substantial shift in how major players view the long-term value of digital assets.

Shifting Sentiments and Increased Allocations, Sygnum’s Findings

The survey represents insights from banks, hedge funds, multi-family offices, asset managers, and other investment-focused entities. It was conducted across 27 countries with over 400 respondents, with respondents averaging over a decade of experience.

Notably, about one-third (33.33%) of these participants are Sygnum clients. The findings highlight a rising appetite for high-risk investments in crypto and show growing confidence in the digital assets space.

Among the key takeaways is that nearly 65% of respondents maintain a bullish long-term view of crypto. Meanwhile, 63% plan to allocate more funds in the next three to six months. Additionally, 56% are expected to adopt a bullish stance within a year, potentially fueled by Bitcoin’s recent surge toward all-time highs (ATH).

More than half of the survey respondents already hold over 10% of their portfolios in crypto. Meanwhile, 46% plan to increase their allocations within six months, while 36% are waiting for optimal entry points. This commitment signals an enduring belief that digital assets can offer superior returns to traditional investments—a view shared by nearly 30% of survey respondents.

When it comes to investment strategy, single-token holdings are the most popular approach. Based on the research, 44% of participants opt to invest in individual tokens. Actively managed exposure, where portfolios are adjusted based on market performance, follows closely with a 40% preference.

This continued commitment to increasing crypto exposure, even amid market fluctuations, signals the growing perception of digital assets as a “megatrend” investment.

“This report tells the story of progress and calculated risk, the use of a diverse set of strategies to leverage opportunities, and most of all, the continued belief in the market’s long-term potential to reshape traditional financial markets,” said Lucas Schweiger, Sygnum’s Digital Asset Research Manager.

Layer-1(L1) blockchains, which serve as foundational platforms for building decentralized applications (dApps), rank as the top investment interest. Web3 infrastructure and decentralized finance (DeFi) ventures follow closely.

Interestingly, tokenized assets, including corporate bonds and mutual funds, have gained more traction than real estate investments, which led to 2023. This shift highlights how crypto adoption is influencing traditional sectors, offering new possibilities for asset tokenization.

Previously, regulatory uncertainty was seen as the biggest hurdle for institutional crypto investments. However, the survey highlights that 69% of respondents now see regulatory clarity improving, shifting concerns toward asset volatility and security. This indicates a maturing market where investors prioritize effective risk management over regulatory barriers.

The appetite for deeper insights into market-specific risks is evident. Up to 81% of participants stated that access to better information would encourage them to increase their allocations. This shift suggests that market intelligence, strategic planning, and technological research are critical factors for institutions venturing into the crypto playing field.

Institutional enthusiasm for crypto is part of a broader trend across the US. Digital assets are no longer just speculative plays for individual investors. As BeInCrypto reported, crypto is increasingly seen as a long-term investment opportunity rather than a gamble.

Furthermore, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) has added credibility to crypto as an asset class. Political influences also play a significant role. President-elect Donald Trump’s recent win could bolster crypto’s status in the US, with some analysts believing that his pro-business stance may further enhance institutional involvement in the sector.

This could bring additional visibility to the industry and potentially lead to more favorable regulations that further incentivize long-term investments in digital assets. Nevertheless, some market observers are skeptical about the implication of the growing institutional adoption of crypto, with the likes of BlackRock and MicroStrategy progressively growing their Bitcoin portfolios.

“Does this not defeat the whole purpose of “decentralization”? BlackRock will be the biggest hodler, it doesn’t get much more centralized than that,” one X user noted.

BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) Net Assets
BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) Net Assets. Source: SoSoValue

The Sygnum survey echoes recent findings, where BeInCrypto reported that over 80% of crypto investors are optimistic about the future. Many believe the current bull market is poised to continue.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Peter Schiff Offers Sarcastic Bitcoin Advice for Trump Media

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Peter Schiff, a long-time economist and vocal critic of Bitcoin, has once again stirred the crypto pot. This time, he is targeting Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the company behind the stock ticker DJT.

In a bold and potentially tongue-in-cheek tweet, Schiff suggested that TMTG, which he claims “doesn’t actually have a business,” should consider taking a page from MicroStrategy’s playbook.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Schiff says that TMTG should convert its cash holdings into Bitcoin (BTC). Further, he urges Trump Media & Technology Group to borrow billions and issue more shares to buy even more Bitcoin, setting DJT stock up for a “moonshot.”

“Since DJT stock does not actually have a business, why doesn’t it just use its cash to buy Bitcoin?” Schiff wrote.  

Likely, with his usual hint of irony, the Bitcoin skeptic urges the firm to follow the Michael Saylor business playbook.

“Borrow billions and issue more shares, then use the money raised to buy even more Bitcoin,” he added.

This suggestion may seem uncharacteristic, given Schiff’s history with Bitcoin. He recently dismissed the BTC price surge as the “biggest bubble in history.” Schiff has been one of Bitcoin’s most relentless critics, frequently arguing that the asset lacks intrinsic value and will eventually crash.

Recently, he openly stated that many of his Bitcoin-related tweets are sarcastic, adding a layer of humor to his otherwise pessimistic views on the cryptocurrency. For Schiff, this latest comment appears to play into that tone, positioning TMTG’s potential Bitcoin strategy as a satirical example of the high-risk approach taken by companies like MicroStrategy.

“Peter would rather swim in salt instead of just buying some Bitcoin,” one user on X quipped.

However, Schiff’s call-out to Trump Media may also reflect his skepticism about TMTG’s business model. DJT has been volatile since its launch, with critics questioning its long-term viability.

DJT Stock Performance
DJT Stock Performance. Source: finance.yahoo

The economist’s suggestion to pour the company’s cash reserves into Bitcoin could be viewed as a jab at both the speculative nature of cryptocurrency investments and TMTG’s business fundamentals.

MicroStrategy’s Aggressive Bitcoin Moves as a Blueprint

MicroStrategy, a business intelligence firm led by CEO Michael Saylor, has indeed gone all-in on Bitcoin. It recently announced its largest Bitcoin purchase to date. In total, the company holds over 160,000 BTC and plans to continue buying, with ambitions to invest up to $42 billion more in Bitcoin between 2025 and 2027.

This strategy has seen MicroStrategy leverage its balance sheet and even issue debt to fund its acquisitions, essentially betting the company’s future on Bitcoin’s success.

For Saylor, Bitcoin represents a safe haven and a hedge against inflation, especially given his belief in the US dollar’s declining purchasing power. Saylor’s approach has boosted MicroStrategy’s stock value, although it has also introduced significant volatility due to Bitcoin’s notorious price swings.

“This year, MSTR [MicroStrategy stock] treasury operations delivered a BTC Yield of 26.4%, providing a net benefit of approximately 49,936 BTC to our shareholders. This is equivalent to 157.5 BTC per day, acquired without the operational costs or capital investments typically associated with bitcoin mining,” Saylor shared recently.

It is worth mentioning that MicroStrategy leverages debt to grow its Bitcoin portfolio while managing existing debt obligations. Since 2020, the firm has employed this approach, raising billions of dollars to acquire Bitcoin.

As Schiff has previously labeled Bitcoin a speculative asset bound to implode, his suggestion that TMTG should mimic MicroStrategy’s tactics might be loaded with irony. By invoking MicroStrategy’s strategy in a sarcastic tone, he is likely reminding investors of the risks involved in placing a company’s future in such a volatile asset.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Low Odds for Donald Trump’s US Bitcoin Reserve

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In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz claimed that a US Bitcoin Reserve was unlikely to pass. Although he said such a law would push Bitcoin to $500,000, Novogratz believes that President Donald Trump will have insufficient Senate support.

Polymarket odds also rate the chance of passing as very low, but it only accepts bets on Trump accomplishing it very quickly after the inauguration.

The Bearish Argument for a Bitcoin Reserve

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz was pessimistic about the chances of a US Bitcoin Reserve. Although Novogratz has repeatedly spoken about his high hopes for friendly regulation, he didn’t see a clear pathway for this campaign promise. Simply put, there are too many hurdles between the federal government and regular Bitcoin purchases.

“It’s a low probability. While the Republicans control the Senate, they don’t have close to 60 seats. I think that it would be very smart for the United States to take the Bitcoin they have and maybe add some to it… I don’t necessarily think that the dollar needs anything to back it up,” Novogratz claimed.

To be clear, he also emphasized that such a Reserve would be beneficial for Bitcoin, predicting it would shoot the price to $500,000. However, Novogratz doesn’t think the existing support is enough.

Senator Cynthia Lummis got bipartisan support for her Bitcoin Reserve bill, and some state-level representatives also support the act. These vocal advocates, however, are few.

It’ll take more than a few elected officials to get such a sweeping policy over the finish line. For example, Novogratz also got into a recent social media spat with Senator Elizabeth Warren, the famed Bitcoin critic.

Although the anti-crypto faction in US legislature got substantially weaker in the last election, it isn’t defeated yet. Even Trump’s own party might not unite in support of the bill.

Polymarket odds, for their part, concur with Novogratz’s bearish predictions. This decentralized prediction market recently gained credibility after successfully forecasting Trump’s victory, and it claims the US Bitcoin Reserve only has a 33% chance of happening. Granted, the only active bet is whether Trump will fulfill his promise within the first 100 days, not his entire term.

Bitcoin Reserve Polymarket Odds
Bitcoin Reserve Polymarket Odds. Source: Polymarket

Ultimately, there still is a decent chance that Trump will successfully pass a Bitcoin Reserve bill sometime in his four-year term. Lummis’ bill already has bipartisan support, and the US electorate is becoming more crypto-friendly.

Several Democrats may vote in favor, or the midterms could see new pro-crypto wins. Nonetheless, it might take a while.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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