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What Past US Elections Reveal About Crypto Market Trends

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The US Presidential election is anticipated to have a substantial impact on global markets, with the cryptocurrency sector standing as no exception. Traders, analysts, and crypto enthusiasts worldwide closely monitor the US, where shifting attitudes toward digital assets make a difference.

In a recent report, on-chain analytics platform Santiment explored the connection between the most important US political event and crypto market movements. With results expected in days, here’s a look back at the crypto market reactions during the last two US presidential election cycles.

How Did US Elections Impact Crypto During Past Cycles

Analysts expect a close race in the 2024 US presidential election and predict a prolonged counting period. Given the tight competition, multiple days may pass after Election Day on Nov. 5 before the final results are confirmed and the next president is publicly announced.

In past elections, markets have reacted swiftly to presidential outcomes. Officials announced Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 four days after Election Day, triggering positive trends despite ongoing global economic turbulence from COVID-19.

While the election influenced market movements, some argue that a bull run was already on the horizon as the international community focused on economic recovery and pandemic response.

Crypto Market Dynamics in November 2016
Crypto Market Dynamics in November 2016. Source: Santiment

After Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, the crypto market saw a minor five-day retrace, with Bitcoin and altcoins dipping before quickly rebounding from the initial volatility. Cryptocurrency markets are famously volatile, and election cycles tend to amplify this effect.

In 2020, Joe Biden’s win fueled optimism for stimulus-driven policies and potentially more lenient monetary practices, leading to a surge in crypto prices. The brief dip and swift recovery in 2016, contrasted with the post-election rally in 2020, highlight how political shifts can significantly impact market trends.

As a result, the announcement of Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election was far more positive for crypto, and markets reacted almost instantly after the news broke.

Read more: How Can Blockchain Be Used for Voting in 2024?

Crypto Market Dynamics in November 2020
Crypto Market Dynamics in November 2020. Source: Santiment

The 2024 election is expected to bring significant price fluctuations in crypto markets, driven by the incoming administration’s stance on regulation and policy. Both major presidential candidates have outlined their views on cryptocurrency, offering a glimpse into the potential direction of US digital asset policy in the years ahead.

Candidate Positions on Cryptocurrency: Trump vs. Harris

Donald Trump

Cryptocurrency enthusiasts widely view Trump’s proposals as more favorable due to his emphasis on industry-friendly policies and his family’s active involvement in digital assets. The crypto community has largely responded positively to his proposals, which many view as encouraging to market growth:

  • National Bitcoin Reserve: Trump proposed creating a national bitcoin stockpile at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in July, aimed at establishing the US as a cryptocurrency frontrunner.
  • Crypto-Friendly Regulatory Policies: Trump has pledged to create a presidential advisory council on cryptocurrency, aiming to develop clear, favorable regulations.
  • SEC Leadership Overhaul: Trump has stated he would replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler, aiming for a regulatory shift he describes as more favorable to digital assets.
  • Family Ventures in Crypto: Trump’s sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, recently launched World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency exchange, underscoring the family’s involvement in the industry.
Kamala Harris

Harris, though supportive, emphasizes consumer protection, which some in the crypto space interpret as less conducive to industry expansion:

  • Support for Innovation in Digital Assets: Harris has voiced support for digital assets and AI, emphasizing the need to foster innovation while protecting consumers.
  • Framework for Regulatory Clarity: Harris proposed a regulatory framework for digital assets in October 2024, focusing on investor protections and transparent guidelines.
  • Blockchain’s Potential: Harris has acknowledged blockchain technology’s potential, calling for balanced regulations that support innovation without compromising consumer safety.
  • Engagement with Industry Leaders: Harris has engaged in dialogue with cryptocurrency leaders throughout 2024, signaling her openness to digital innovations while maintaining regulatory standards.

These differing approaches have resulted in a significantly higher volume of mentions around Trump’s crypto discussions and policies compared to Harris’s, reflecting the community’s heightened interest in his approach.

Mention Rate Trump vs. Harris, 2024
Mention Rate Trump vs. Harris, 2024. Source: Santiment

On Polymarket, prediction rates show higher support for Trump over Harris among the crypto community, though Harris has recently closed the gap, making it a closer race.

Read more: How To Use Polymarket In The United States: Step-by-Step Guide

Regardless of who wins the 2024 election, the cryptocurrency sector anticipates continued growth and evolving regulatory frameworks as the new administration steps in. The crypto community will closely observe how the incoming administration navigates the rise of digital assets, balancing the drive for innovation with regulatory safeguards.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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This Is Why XRP Price Rallied By 25% and Could Soon Hit $2

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Ripple’s (XRP) price rallied by 25% in the last 24 hours following Gary Gensler’s announcement that he would resign as the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair on January 20, 2025.

This development comes as a relief to the popular “XRP Army,” which has had to deal with suppressed price action due to the Gensler-led SEC’s nonstop petitions against Ripple. But that is not all that happened. 

Ripple Bears Face Notable Liquidation Following Gensler’s Notification

Gensler’s announcement appears to be a positive development for the broader crypto market. But XRP holders seemed to benefit the most. This was particularly significant given the unresolved Ripple-SEC legal issues that have persisted throughout the SEC Chair’s tenure.

As a result, it came as no surprise that XRP price rallied and outpaced those of any other cryptocurrency in the top 10. Furthermore, the development triggered liquidations totaling $26.11 million over the last 24 hours.

Liquidation occurs when a trader fails to meet the margin requirements for a leveraged position. This forces the exchange to sell off their assets to prevent further losses. In XRP’s case, the liquidation primarily resulted in a short squeeze.

XRP liquidations
Crypto Market 24-Hour Liquidations. Source: Coinglass

A short squeeze happens when a large number of short positions (traders betting on price declines) are forced to close, driving the price higher as they rush back to buy back the asset.

At press time, XRP trades at $1.40 and currently has a market cap of $80.64 billion. With Gensler almost gone, crypto lawyer John Deaton noted that XRP price gains could be higher, and the market cap could climb to $100 billion.

“XRP soon will achieve a $100B market cap. Times are changing,” Deaton wrote on X.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows that the total number of XRP sent into exchange has significantly decreased. Typically, high values indicate increased selling pressure in the spot market. This is because it suggests that more assets are being offloaded, potentially driving prices lower.

However, since it is low, XRP holders are refraining from selling. If this remains the case, the token’s value could rise higher than $1.40.

XRP exchange inflow
XRP Exchange Inflow. Source: CryptoQuant

XRP Price Prediction: $2 Coming?

According to the 4-hour chart, XRP has been trading within a range of $1.04 to $1.17 since November 18. This sideways movement has resulted in the formation of a bull flag — a bullish chart pattern that signals potential upward momentum.

The bull flag begins with a sharp price surge, forming the flagpole, driven by significant buying pressure that outpaces sellers. This is followed by a consolidation phase, where the price retraces slightly and moves within parallel trendlines, creating the flag structure.

Yesterday, XRP broke out of this pattern, signaling that bulls have seized control of the market. If this momentum persists, XRP’s price could surpass $1.50, potentially approaching the $2 threshold.

XRP price analysis
XRP 4-Hour Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, this bullish scenario hinges on market behavior. If holders decide to secure profits, selling pressure could push XRP’s price below $1, erasing recent gains.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Dogecoin (DOGE) Shows Renewed Energy: Rally Incoming?

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Dogecoin is consolidating gains above the $0.380 resistance against the US Dollar. DOGE is holding gains and eyeing more upsides above $0.400.

  • DOGE price started a fresh increase above the $0.3750 resistance level.
  • The price is trading above the $0.3800 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
  • There was a break above a short-term contracting triangle with resistance at $0.390 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
  • The price could continue to rally if it clears the $0.400 and $0.4080 resistance levels.

Dogecoin Price Eyes More Upsides

Dogecoin price remained supported above the $0.350 level and recently started a fresh increase like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE was able to clear the $0.3650 and $0.3750 resistance levels.

The price climbed above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.4208 swing high to the $0.3652 low. Besides, there was a break above a short-term contracting triangle with resistance at $0.390 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair.

Dogecoin price is now trading above the $0.3750 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.3950 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.4208 swing high to the $0.3652 low.

Dogecoin Price

The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.400 level. The next major resistance is near the $0.4080 level. A close above the $0.4080 resistance might send the price toward the $0.4200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $0.4500 level. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.500.

Are Dips Supported In DOGE?

If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.400 level, it could start a downside correction. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.3850 level. The next major support is near the $0.3750 level.

The main support sits at $0.3550. If there is a downside break below the $0.3550 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might decline toward the $0.3200 level or even $0.300 in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now gaining momentum in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.3850 and $0.3750.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.4000 and $0.4200.



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Solana Hits New All-Time High After 3 Years

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On Friday, Solana (SOL) soared to a new all-time high (ATH), now trading at approximately $261. This breakthrough surpasses its previous peak set in November 2021.

Solana’s rise to a new ATH marks an increase of over 32 times from its lows recorded in December 2022.

Solana Hits All-Time High as Gary Gensler Plans Resignation

Solana’s path to this new high has been anything but smooth. After reaching its previous high in 2021, the platform faced a downturn in 2022 amid a broader crypto bear market, further exacerbated by technical issues and network downtimes.

The collapse of FTX in November 2022 pushed Solana’s price down to around $8.

Solana Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

However, Solana has since made a remarkable recovery, increasing more than 32-fold from its low. Now, Solana enthusiasts believe that SOL could eventually outpace Ethereum (ETH) in market capitalization.

“Solana has been at an all-time high by market cap for a while actually. Now, we’re finally in price discovery. The flippening is coming,” Birch, the founder of PathCrypto, said.

The surge in Solana’s market value coincides with the news of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s planned resignation, slated for January 20, 2025, as Donald Trump assumes office.

Known for his strict regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies, Gensler’s departure signals a potential shift toward a more crypto-friendly administration. Consequently, this political change is stoking speculations about the approval of a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF). According to Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett, the SEC has begun engaging with issuers to explore the possibility of a Solana ETF.

“Talks between SEC staff and issuers looking to launch a Solana spot ETF are “progressing” with the SEC now engaging on S-1 applications. Recent engagement from staff, coupled with the incoming pro-crypto administration, is sparking a renewed sense of optimism that a Solana ETF could be approved sometime in 2025,” Terrett claimed.

Previous efforts to launch a Solana ETF were stalled by regulatory roadblocks, often stopping early in the process. However, the changing political environment and the SEC’s increased openness have reignited hopes within the crypto community. Recent filings for a Solana ETF by Canary Capital and BitWise reflect a growing interest and anticipation for regulatory approval.

Despite these encouraging developments, the odds of a Solana ETF approval in 2024 remain low, with Polymarket estimates placing it at around 4%.

Odds of Solana ETF Approval in 2024
Odds of Solana ETF Approval in 2024. Source: Polymarket

Meanwhile, the crypto community is also closely watching Bitcoin as it approaches the highly anticipated $100,000 mark. On Friday, Bitcoin recorded a new high of about $99,300. This milestone is viewed as a pivotal moment for Bitcoin and could impact other cryptocurrencies, including Solana.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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