Crypto investment inflows surged to $2.17 billion last week, reaching an unprecedented $29.2 billion in year-to-date inflows. This influx elevated the total assets under management (AUM) in digital assets to over $100 billion, a level previously reached only in June 2024.

The rise comes amid renewed interest in Bitcoin, which captured the majority of these investments, with trading volumes up by 67% to $19.2 billion. This activity represented a significant 35% of Bitcoin’s trading volume on trusted exchanges.

Inflows To Digital Asset Investment Products Reach $2.2 Billion

The latest CoinShares report attributes recent crypto inflows to the upcoming US elections on November 5. Anticipation of a potential Republican victory appears to be fueling interesthttps://beincrypto.com/donald-trump-to-overhaul-us-crypto-rules/, as the GOP is often viewed as more favorable toward relaxed regulations on digital assets.

“We believe euphoria around the prospect of a Republican victory was the likely reason for these inflows as they were in the first few days of last week, as polls have turned, we saw minor outflows on Friday, highlighting how sensitive Bitcoin is to the US elections at present,” the report read.

Read more: How To Buy Bitcoin (BTC) and Everything You Need To Know

Bitcoin dominated last week’s inflows, with $2.15 billion reflecting investor confidence. A minor yet notable $8.9 million also flowed into short-Bitcoin products, hinting at some hedging among investors amidst Bitcoin’s strong price movement.

Meanwhile, Ethereum saw modest inflows totaling $9.5 million, displaying a marked difference in sentiment compared to Bitcoin and Solana, which received $5.7 million. Other altcoins, including Polkadot and Arbitrum, saw smaller investments, with $670,000 and $200,000 respectively.

This development is unsurprising given how the run-up to the US elections has catalyzed substantial interest in digital assets over the past few weeks. As BeInCrypto reported, October already saw inflows reaching $901 million in the last week after recording up to $2.2 billion in positive flows the week prior and $407 million in the first week of October.  

During these weeks, CoinShares’ James Butterfill credited the positive flows to a Republican victory potentially favoring regulatory policies for digital assets.

Fate of Crypto Investment Inflows After US Elections

The record-breaking inflows coincide with a broader surge in US-based investments in crypto, as American investors account for the bulk of this year’s $29.2 billion inflow. Meanwhile, Germany saw a modest $5.1 million in new investments. This reflects Europe’s more conservative engagement with crypto amid regulatory uncertainties.

While Bitcoin remains the primary beneficiary of these investments, US elections could further intensify volatility in the crypto market this week. Investors are monitoring key battleground states, where recent polls indicate a favorable swing for Republicans. This has raised speculation of a shift in Congress that could bring a friendlier stance on crypto.

Political analysts note that GOP control of Congress might ease regulatory pressures on digital assets. This could enhance investor confidence and attract further inflows into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the days following the elections. Nevertheless, others like Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong say a more “pro-crypto Congress” is likely to emerge regardless of the election’s outcome.

The election results will likely signal the short-term direction for crypto investments. A Republican win could boost inflows, potentially sparking a new Bitcoin rally, while a Democratic victory might dampen expectations if stricter regulations are anticipated.

Read More: What is Polymarket? A Guide to The Popular Prediction Market

With election day approaching, crypto markets are expected to stay volatile, as Bitcoin and other digital assets respond to shifts in polling data and policy outlooks.

“Going to be an exciting week ahead, that’s one thing that’s for certain. Be careful on leverage, recommend not touching it at all this week. You’re likely to just get chopped up,” crypto analyst Daan Crypto warned.

Crypto markets are bracing for what is arguably the most volatile week in 2024. Three US macroeconomic data events are on the calendar and have the potential to affect investors’ portfolios significantly.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below $70,000, with prospects for more gains as the fourth quarter (Q4) has historically boded well for the pioneer crypto.

US Elections: Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

The US market is approaching the climax of its political showdown between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, from the Republican and Democratic parties, respectively, on Tuesday, November 5. Based on data on Polymarket, the US elections are only hours away, with Trump narrowly in the lead.

Read More: How Can Blockchain Be Used for Voting in 2024?

Nevertheless, Polymarket’s industry peer in the prediction market, Kalshi, shows an almost similar margin, with Trump leading by 52% against Harris’ 48%. This contrast reflects the differences in these platforms’ user bases. Notwithstanding, analysts anticipate a volatile day for Bitcoin.

The US election results could have significant implications for economic policy, regulatory environments, and investor sentiment. Depending on the winner, policies regarding cryptocurrency might change, potentially affecting Bitcoin price, with the sentiment spilling over to other crypto tokens.

“I’m expecting this week to be a real firecracker, with lots of volatility. The Key day will be Tuesday, as the US election voting comes to a close. If there is no clear winner as the day progresses, it could get quite scary for Bitcoin,” said Mark Cullen, an analyst at AlphaBTC.

Initial Jobless Claims: Labor Market Gauge

Beyond the US elections, crypto markets will also monitor the initial jobless claims on Thursday, November 7. This economic data helps gauge the tightness or softness of the labor market in the US. While the job market has softened, unemployment rates remain low on an absolute basis.  

Last week, US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance came in at 216,000 from the week ending October 25, down from the previous 228,000. However, there is a consensus forecast of 220,000.

High initial jobless claims in the Thursday report suggest increasing economic hardship and a weakening labor market. This could lead to decreased consumer spending and investment in traditional assets like stocks and bonds. Consequently, some investors may turn to alternative assets like cryptocurrencies as a hedge against economic uncertainty.

FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Jerome Powell Speech

On Thursday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release minutes from its last meeting, followed by comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed operates under a dual mandate: to keep inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), at 2% annually, and to sustain full employment.

The FOMC’s November meeting is scheduled for next Wednesday and Thursday, with economists speculating on the possibility of another rate cut. At the previous meeting, the Fed reduced interest rates by 50 basis points (0.5%) as US CPI dropped to 2.4%.

Another rate cut may be likely as inflation nears the Fed’s 2% target, while the unemployment rate has risen from 3.7% to 4.1% this year, indicating potential softening in the job market.

Read more: How to Protect Yourself From Inflation Using Cryptocurrency

Recently, Powell said the downside risks to employment have increased, hinting at more rate cuts to support economic growth before the situation worsens. Moreover, the FOMC’s forecast in September suggested that the federal funds rate could fall by another 50 basis points before the end of 2024.

With only November and December meetings remaining, likely, two 25-basis-point cuts are likely underway. Against this backdrop, the CME Fed Watchtool shows a 99.9% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in the Thursday US economic data release.

Meanwhile, Spotonchain anticipates a further upside for Bitcoin after the US elections and FOMC meeting, setting a BTC price target of $100,000 in 2024. The rally, Spotonchain says, will come regardless of who wins the elections.

“The market is entering its most volatile week with the US election and FOMC meeting, but this rally may be here to stay. Historically, the real bull run begins post-election, and we believe that whether Trump or Harris becomes the next president, BTC will continue its upward journey, potentially reaching 100,000 this year,” Spotonchain said.

At the time of writing, BTC is trading for $68,698, signifying a modest 0.34% surge since the Monday session opened.

Bitcoin (BTC) crashed below $69,000 on Sunday resulting in significant levels of market liquidations. Interestingly, analysts have also noted a correlation of this decline with a decrease in the winning odds of US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump ahead of the general elections on November 5.

Bitcoin Price Fall Induces $232.6 Million In Liquidations

In the last few days, Bitcoin has witnessed some significant price re-correction following a prolonged price rally in October during which it gained by 20%. The price of the premier cryptocurrency initially dropped from above $73,000 on Friday finding support around the $69,000 region.

Following a a brief period of sideways movement, BTC experienced another significant decline on Sunday reaching a local bottom of $67,960. Amidst this price drop, crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that the 104,787 trading positions were liquidated resulting in a loss of $232.6 million.

Data shared by Martinez showed that long traders accounted for majority of these figures with $198.6 million in liquidations while only $34 million in short positions were closed. This development means that more traders had anticipated a rebound by the crypto market leader following its initial price pullback on Friday.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has retraced to above $68,000 with little indication of its next price movement. If its current downtrend persists, the premier cryptocurrency could fall as low as $55,000 in line with a range-bound movement that has lasted over the past eight months. 

Alternatively, Bitcoin could undergo a price recovery returning to levels within its all-time high at $73,750 value as bullish sentiments remain on the high amidst heightened ETF inflows, a fast-approaching US election, and an anticipated Fed rate cut of 25 basis points.

Is A Potential Trump Loss A Threat To Bitcoin?

So far, Bitcoin’s decline on Sunday has found a correlation with a decrease in the winning probability of US presidential candidate and crypto activist Donald Trump. According to data from Polymarket, Trump’s chances of emerging victorious in the presidential elections on November 5 dropped by 4.3% after his opponent Democrat candidate and US Vice President Kamala Harris became the favorite to win in Pennsylvania.

Although the pro-crypto Donald Trump remains the forerunner to emerge president with a 53.8%  to Harris’s 46.1%, recent price reactions by Bitcoin have shown a potential loss by the Republican could exert a significant price decline for the crypto market leader. Albeit, historical price data indicates that such a downturn would likely be temporary as Bitcoin has consistently embarked on a bullish trajectory following the US elections regardless of the result.

At the time of writing, BTC now trades at $68,471 reflecting a price loss of 1.38% in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, the asset’s daily trading volume is down by 40.54% and valued at $24.40 billion.