The US Presidential election is anticipated to have a substantial impact on global markets, with the cryptocurrency sector standing as no exception. Traders, analysts, and crypto enthusiasts worldwide closely monitor the US, where shifting attitudes toward digital assets make a difference.

In a recent report, on-chain analytics platform Santiment explored the connection between the most important US political event and crypto market movements. With results expected in days, here’s a look back at the crypto market reactions during the last two US presidential election cycles.

How Did US Elections Impact Crypto During Past Cycles

Analysts expect a close race in the 2024 US presidential election and predict a prolonged counting period. Given the tight competition, multiple days may pass after Election Day on Nov. 5 before the final results are confirmed and the next president is publicly announced.

In past elections, markets have reacted swiftly to presidential outcomes. Officials announced Joe Biden’s victory in 2020 four days after Election Day, triggering positive trends despite ongoing global economic turbulence from COVID-19.

While the election influenced market movements, some argue that a bull run was already on the horizon as the international community focused on economic recovery and pandemic response.

After Donald Trump’s 2016 victory, the crypto market saw a minor five-day retrace, with Bitcoin and altcoins dipping before quickly rebounding from the initial volatility. Cryptocurrency markets are famously volatile, and election cycles tend to amplify this effect.

In 2020, Joe Biden’s win fueled optimism for stimulus-driven policies and potentially more lenient monetary practices, leading to a surge in crypto prices. The brief dip and swift recovery in 2016, contrasted with the post-election rally in 2020, highlight how political shifts can significantly impact market trends.

As a result, the announcement of Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election was far more positive for crypto, and markets reacted almost instantly after the news broke.

Read more: How Can Blockchain Be Used for Voting in 2024?

The 2024 election is expected to bring significant price fluctuations in crypto markets, driven by the incoming administration’s stance on regulation and policy. Both major presidential candidates have outlined their views on cryptocurrency, offering a glimpse into the potential direction of US digital asset policy in the years ahead.

Candidate Positions on Cryptocurrency: Trump vs. Harris

Donald Trump

Cryptocurrency enthusiasts widely view Trump’s proposals as more favorable due to his emphasis on industry-friendly policies and his family’s active involvement in digital assets. The crypto community has largely responded positively to his proposals, which many view as encouraging to market growth:

• National Bitcoin Reserve: Trump proposed creating a national bitcoin stockpile at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in July, aimed at establishing the US as a cryptocurrency frontrunner.
• Crypto-Friendly Regulatory Policies: Trump has pledged to create a presidential advisory council on cryptocurrency, aiming to develop clear, favorable regulations.
• SEC Leadership Overhaul: Trump has stated he would replace SEC Chair Gary Gensler, aiming for a regulatory shift he describes as more favorable to digital assets.
• Family Ventures in Crypto: Trump’s sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, recently launched World Liberty Financial, a cryptocurrency exchange, underscoring the family’s involvement in the industry.

Kamala Harris

Harris, though supportive, emphasizes consumer protection, which some in the crypto space interpret as less conducive to industry expansion:

• Support for Innovation in Digital Assets: Harris has voiced support for digital assets and AI, emphasizing the need to foster innovation while protecting consumers.
• Framework for Regulatory Clarity: Harris proposed a regulatory framework for digital assets in October 2024, focusing on investor protections and transparent guidelines.
• Blockchain’s Potential: Harris has acknowledged blockchain technology’s potential, calling for balanced regulations that support innovation without compromising consumer safety.
• Engagement with Industry Leaders: Harris has engaged in dialogue with cryptocurrency leaders throughout 2024, signaling her openness to digital innovations while maintaining regulatory standards.

These differing approaches have resulted in a significantly higher volume of mentions around Trump’s crypto discussions and policies compared to Harris’s, reflecting the community’s heightened interest in his approach.

On Polymarket, prediction rates show higher support for Trump over Harris among the crypto community, though Harris has recently closed the gap, making it a closer race.

Read more: How To Use Polymarket In The United States: Step-by-Step Guide

Regardless of who wins the 2024 election, the cryptocurrency sector anticipates continued growth and evolving regulatory frameworks as the new administration steps in. The crypto community will closely observe how the incoming administration navigates the rise of digital assets, balancing the drive for innovation with regulatory safeguards.

Asset manager VanEck has launched a new ETN based on PYTH, specifically for European buyers. The Pyth network, a decentralized oracle protocol, has earned praise from VanEck for its potential to transform the DeFi landscape.

This launch follows several similar crypto-focused ventures by VanEck in recent months.

VanEck Launches PYTH ETN

According to a recent press release, asset manager VanEck is listing a new exchange-traded note (ETN) based on PYTH today. The Pyth network is a decentralized oracle protocol that uses PYTH as a network token. PYTH’s value has risen slightly since this announcement, bucking a decline this month, but there has not been a substantial price jump.

This new ETN is one of several recent crypto project investments by VanEck. Earlier in October, the firm launched a $30 million venture fund aimed at crypto startups and, just last week, partnered with Kiln to offer Solana staking.

Read more: What Is a Blockchain Oracle? An Introductory Guide

VanEck publicly stated that Pyth’s technical potential inspired its latest ETN offering. Listed on Euronext Paris and Euronext Amsterdam, the ETN is now available to investors. Although distinct from an ETF, it shares some similarities: its value is tied to PYTH, and VanEck secures the ETN’s underlying assets in cold storage.

“Smart contracts… are gaining increasing significance in the financial world… and oracle networks play a crucial role in enabling [their] real-world use. With our Pyth ETN, investors have the opportunity to participate in the development of… Pyth Network, which has the potential to become a crucial part of DeFi application infrastructure,” VanEck Europe CEO Martijn Rozemuller said.

Read more: Crypto ETN vs. Crypto ETF: What Is the Difference?

However, it remains unclear whether “underlying assets” specifically refers to PYTH tokens. The ETN’s value is derived from the MarketVector Pyth Network VWAP Close Index, which in turn tracks PYTH’s value indirectly. This layered approach to value calculation may help explain why PYTH’s price has remained relatively stable since the announcement.

The press release also notes that the ETN is available across 15 European countries under the ticker VYPT, with a total expense ratio of 1.5%. VanEck cautions twice in its statement about the “risk of extreme volatility” associated with the product.

In partnership with UBS Asset Management and Chainlink, Swift has completed a pilot program designed to streamline tokenized fund transactions through its established financial network.

Conducted as part of the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) Project Guardian, this pilot demonstrates how financial institutions can leverage Swift’s existing infrastructure to manage off-chain cash settlements for tokenized assets.

Swift, Chanlink and UBS Aim to Streamline Fund Operations and Boost Efficiency

Swift, UBS Asset Management, and Chainlink have completed a pilot for settling tokenized fund subscriptions through the Swift network. The initiative addresses inefficiencies in the $63 trillion global mutual fund market by connecting 11,500 institutions to streamline manual processes and cut costly settlement delays that hinder liquidity.

“Chainlink is enabling institutions to reuse Swift’s infrastructure to facilitate payments for digital asset transactions. I am very excited by the upcoming adoption of these off-chain payment capabilities and how they will increase the flow of capital and expand the possible user base of digital assets,” Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov said.

Read more: RWA Tokenization: A Look at Security and Trust

Chainlink and Swift’s pilot bears real potential in demonstrating how financial institutions can streamline these processes in the future. It automates payment processing for tokenized investment funds without requiring a fully blockchain-based system. This approach makes transactions faster and more efficient.

The pilot builds on earlier work between UBS Asset Management and SBI Digital Markets. Their previous collaboration focused on developing a Digital Subscription and Redemption system for tokenized funds.

Using Swift’s established infrastructure, the pilot demonstrated how fund transactions could be settled efficiently by connecting traditional systems with blockchain. Upon meeting specific conditions, UBS’s tokenized investment funds automatically issued or canceled fund tokens for investors.

UBS rolled out a tokenized fund on the Ethereum blockchain on November 1. The “UBS USD Money Market Investment Fund Token,” known as “uMINT,” aims to meet growing demand for tokenized assets. Meanwhile, MAS highlighted its dedication to asset tokenization, drawing insights from 40 institutions and 15 pilot trials.

“Our collaboration with UBS Asset Management and Chainlink under MAS’ Project Guardian uses the Swift network to bridge digital assets with existing systems. This approach supports our goal of helping financial institutions securely transact across various digital asset classes and currencies,” Swift Head of Strategy Jonathan Ehrenfeld commented.

Read more: How To Invest in Real-World Crypto Assets (RWA)?

The pilot highlights the growing momentum toward integrating digital assets with mainstream financial systems, illustrating how established infrastructures like Swift’s can support the fast-evolving digital economy.