Sminston With, a crypto analyst, has predicted that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price could surpass $200,000. This forecast came on the same day that the Bitcoin price failed to hit the widely expected $70,000 mark. 

However, With suggests that the prediction might not come to pass this year or next. In this analysis, the platform reveals how the analyst arrived at this conclusion and whether Bitcoin has a chance of hitting this target.

Bitcoin Decay Model Suggests Higher Highs, Analyst Reveals

On Monday, October 21, With posted on X (formerly Twitter), saying that BTC could hit between $199,106 and $207,623. The analyst came to this conclusion after evaluating the Decay Channel model.

The decay model was designed to challenge previous prediction models, particularly the widely recognized Rainbow Chart and Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. Both of these earlier models have been influential in forecasting Bitcoin’s price movements. 

Still, the decay model presents an alternative perspective by incorporating factors that may account for diminishing returns and slowing growth as the asset matures, as shown below. Interestingly, this forecast is another analyst’s prediction for Bitcoin, which predicts that the coin could reach $200,000 in 2025.

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“Depending on the regression method used, linear or nonlinear, the upper bound of decay on January 1st, 2026, looks to be either $199,106 or $207,623. Even with this much decay, this is bullish!” With said.

However, on-chain data obtained by looking at Bitcoin’s Cycle Top Indicator shows that the coin might not go that high. Instead, the 350-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which spots the highest possible price of a cycle, reveals that BTC’s top could be around $114,256.

In a related development, Jurrien Timmer suggested that Bitcoin’s price might continue to trade sideways for an extended period. 

In his post, Timmer pointed out that Bitcoin’s adoption curve currently lags behind that of gold, making it difficult for BTC to experience rapid acceleration in the near term. This slower adoption could be a limiting factor in Bitcoin’s price growth despite its potential as a store of value.

BTC Price Prediction: Drop Below $63,000 First

According to the daily chart, Bitcoin’s price attempted to hit $70,000, and the wick of the last green candle reached $69,126.

However, as seen below, the coin could not break out of the rising parallel channel, which could have sent it higher. Due to this, BTC is currently trading below $67,000. A look at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that the reading has dropped.

The RSI measures momentum using the size and speed of price changes. When it increases, momentum is bullish. On the other hand, a decrease implies a rising bearish momentum, which seems to be the case with BTC currently.

Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

If sustained, Bitcoin’s price might drop to $62,995. On the flip side, if momentum becomes bullish again and buying pressure increases, BTC might climb to $69,400 and possibly surpass $73,000 in the short term, aligning with the analyst prediction for Bitcoin.

SUI price has grown by 27.82% in the last 30 days, driven by notable changes in its Total Value Locked (TVL). After a strong surge in both TVL and price, SUI appears to be entering a consolidation phase. This stabilization suggests a pause in the upward momentum, possibly indicating a period of market indecision.

The future direction could depend on whether SUI’s TVL sees renewed growth or remains stagnant, with a potential correction in play.

SUI TVL: Consolidation After a Strong Surge

SUI’s Total Value Locked (TVL) experienced an impressive surge, rising from $308 million on August 4 to $1.096 billion by October 14. This remarkable 255% growth over roughly two months stands out, especially for a protocol as substantial as SUI.

This growth was accompanied by a significant increase in SUI price itself, climbing from $0.46 to $2.36. That represents a staggering 391% growth in the same period.

However, following that surge, SUI’s TVL has shown signs of stability, consistently hovering around $1 billion without further gains since early October.

This plateau suggests that after the sharp rise in both TVL and price, SUI might be transitioning into a consolidation phase or potentially even gearing up for a correction, as the rapid growth appears to have cooled off.

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SUI ADX Shows the Current Downtrend is Still Not That Strong

SUI’s ADX is currently at 16.82, indicating the strength of the current trend. With a value below 20, this suggests that the trend is still weak, implying limited directional movement in the market.

The ADX is a valuable indicator as it helps gauge the momentum of a trend, whether upward or downward.

The ADX (Average Directional Index) values are generally used to determine how strong a trend is, with numbers between 20 and 40 signaling moderate strength and anything above 40 showing a very strong trend. Just two days ago, SUI’s ADX was at 9, showing a noticeable increase recently.

As SUI seems to be heading into a downtrend, a continued rise in ADX would imply a strengthening bearish momentum, which could lead to a significant correction in the next few days.

SUI Price Prediction: Will SUI Form a Death Cross Soon?

SUI’s EMA lines currently indicate that its short-term averages are trending downward and could soon cross below its long-term averages. This is often referred to as a “bearish crossover,” which suggests that bearish momentum may be gaining strength.

Such a crossover can indicate the beginning of a potential downtrend as short-term price sentiment weakens compared to the longer-term outlook.

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If this bearish crossover occurs, SUI has support levels at $1.74 and $1.60, pointing to a potential correction of up to 17%. On the other hand, if SUI’s Total Value Locked (TVL) starts to grow again and sparks a renewed price rally, the price could test resistance at $2.16.

Should that level be broken, SUI could also test $2.36, which would represent a possible 21% price increase.

TRUMP price has witnessed a notable decline in the past few weeks. The Trump-inspired meme coin is now trading at $3.31, reflecting a 27% decline over the past week.

With the election just one week and six days away, TRUMP is poised to revisit its yearly low of $1.70. This analysis explores the factors making that scenario increasingly likely.

MAGA Sees Spike in Selloffs

TRUMP’s price has declined by 22% in the past 24 hours. During the same period, its trading volume has totaled $12 million, rising by 122%. 

When an asset’s price drops while its trading volume skyrockets, it indicates strong selling pressure in the market. The combined interpretation of this trend suggests that many TRUMP traders are selling off their positions. This shows that holders are losing confidence in the asset as the election date approaches, prompting a rush to sell.

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TRUMP’s negative Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) supports this bearish outlook. As of this writing, this indicator is in a downtrend, below the zero line at -0.04.

The CMF indicator measures money flow into and out of an asset. When its value is above zero,  it indicates that an asset is being accumulated, suggesting bullish sentiment, as buying pressure exceeds selling pressure.

Conversely, a CMF reading below zero suggests a bearish sentiment. It signals that selling pressure dominates the market, and downward momentum will likely continue.

Furthermore, TRUMP’s double-digit decline has pushed its price below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which tracks its average price over the past 20 trading days. 

This is a bearish signal because it suggests that Trump’s short-term trend is weakening. It indicates that the meme coin sellers are gaining control and have pushed its price below the moving average of the past 20 days.

TRUMP Price Prediction: Meme Coin May Revisit Yearly Low

If the current trend continues, TRUMP’s price is at risk of revisiting its yearly low of $1.70, marking a 48% decline from its current value. However, if market sentiment shifts from bearish to bullish and new demand for the meme coin surges, TRUMP’s price could rebound and begin an uptrend.

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In this scenario, it would aim to break through resistance at $5.49. If successful, TRUMP could potentially rally further, targeting $11.64.