The Bitcoin (BTC) market is experiencing uncertainty as the resurgence of dormant coins coincides with lackluster demand for the coin in the spot market. On-chain data has revealed that many long-held BTC have re-entered circulation. 

While this is usually a net positive for the coin’s value, it has been met with low demand, potentially adding further downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.

Old Bitcoin Returns to the Market

In a post on X, Lookonchain noted that on Wednesday, a major Bitcoin whale withdrew 250 BTC from leading exchange Binance after six months of dormancy. This whale activity coincided with a sharp rise in Bitcoin’s Age Consumed metric, which tracks the movement of long-held coins. That day, the metric surged by 1026%, reaching 82.1 million — its highest level in over 90 days.

This spike is significant because long-term holders rarely move their coins. When they do, it often signals a shift in market trends. Historically, when dormant BTC re-enters circulation, it’s viewed as a positive indicator for future price movements, suggesting renewed activity from strategic long-term holders.

Read more: What Happened at the Last Bitcoin Halving? Predictions for 2024

However, for the positive scenario to play out, the movement of dormant coins must coincide with strong market demand. If these previously inactive coins re-enter circulation during a period of weak demand, it can increase selling pressure and drive down Bitcoin’s price — much like what we’re seeing in the current market.

Bitcoin’s declining Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) highlights this weak demand. The CMF, which tracks the flow of capital into and out of the market, currently sits at -0.13, below the zero line. This suggests a liquidity exit, with more traders selling off their Bitcoin holdings, adding to the bearish pressure.

BTC Price Prediction: The Market Needs New Demand

The current surge in BTC’s supply without the demand to absorb it may cause its price to draw down in the meantime. BTC’s Fibonacci Retracement tool readings indicate that if selling pressure gains momentum, the coin’s price could slip under $60,000 to test support at $58,464.

Should the bulls fail to defend this level, Bitcoin’s price may drop to $54,847.

Read more: Bitcoin Halving History: Everything You Need To Know

However, if the coin witnesses a surge in new demand, the previously dormant coins re-entering circulation could be absorbed by buyers, potentially driving the price higher and invalidating the bearish outlook mentioned above. In this scenario, Bitcoin’s price could reach $68,474.

Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has predicted that the XRP price will rise 8,400% to $44. Interestingly, the analyst suggested that the crypto could still reach a higher price target, calling the $44 price level “conservative.”

XRP Price To Reach $44

Egrag Crypto predicted in an X post that the XRP price would reach $44. He highlighted this price level as one of the conservative targets based on the current cycle and the Fib Channel. The $44 price level is the target based on the Fib 0.702 channel. The other price targets he mentioned were $13 and $27, based on the Fib 0.5 and 0.618 channels, respectively. 

Related Reading

The analyst is confident that the XRP price will hit these price targets. He claimed that since the crypto’s inception, the chart has indicated that the market can expect pumps to these Fibonacci Channel levels. Egrag Crypto also suggested that XRP will reach these price targets in this bull run, claiming that this is what the chart states. 

Egrag’s label of these price targets as conservative also means that the XRP price could still rise higher in this bull run. The analyst didn’t provide any other price target, but other analysts like Javon Marks have predicted that the crypto could reach three digits. Marks recently predicted that XRP could rise to as high as $200. 

The analyst stated that the crypto has broken out of a Pennant pattern of over six years. He claimed that hold of this break plus a Logarithmic Follow-Through after can send XRP to $200, representing a price gain of over 30,000%. 

Marks expects the XRP price to reach $3.3 in the short term, close to its current all-time high (ATH) of $3.8. The analyst explained that since 2022, the crypto has confirmed multiple hidden bull divergences and is on course to achieve a bull breakout. 

According to him, this bull breakout will lead to a price gain of over 450% as XRP reaches the $3.3 range. He added that this price breakout may only be a start, especially since he believes the crypto will still reach $200. 

The Worst Case Scenario

Amid these bullish predictions for the XRP price, Egrag Crypto has also revealed the worst scenario for the crypto in this market cycle. He claimed that XRP would at least reach between $2.3 and $5.89 in this bull run and outlined two reasons why he believes the crypto can at least reach these price targets no matter what. 

Related Reading

First, he noted that XRP managed to do a 10x from the bottom after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dropped the lawsuit in December 2020. He stated that XRP could easily hit the $5 to $ range if there is a similar situation after the SEC appeal. He added that the crypto might reach the Fib 1.618 level at around $6.5. 

Secondly, he mentioned that the XRP price could hit $2.31 and $2,88 if the Bitcoin price reaches $80,000 and $100,000, respectively. He expects XRP to mirror BTC’s move, just like it did in the 2021 bull run. 

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com