Tomorrow, October 9, Dogs (DOGS) and Notcoin (NOT) will jointly burn $4 million worth of tokens that have remained unclaimed since both projects distributed tokens in Telegram airdrops.

This event has sparked speculation about the potential impact on their respective prices. As the community awaits this moment, BeInCrypto examines how the dynamics of demand and supply could affect NOT and DOGS.

Both Notcoin and Dogs have decided to burn their tokens after receiving the green light from the community. To encourage participation, the official channels of these Telegram-native projects announced that the event will be streamed live on X (formerly Twitter) at 1 p.m. UTC.

For context, projects engage in token burning by permanently removing tokens from circulation to enhance scarcity and potentially increase the long-term value of their cryptocurrencies. In total, DOGS will burn 4.8 billion tokens, while Notcoin will contribute the remainder, bringing the total burn to approximately $4 million

However, it is important to mention that Dogs and Notcoin did not launch around the same period. While Notcoin distributed over 80 billion tokens in Telegram airdrop in June, Dogs gave out about 400 billion tokens to eligible users. 

Currently, DOGS changes hand at $0.00072, 55% down from its launch price. Notcoin’s price is down 46% from its all-time high. Despite this, the Weighted Sentiment around the projects has jumped, suggesting that the broader community is bullish about the event.  

Read more: What Are Telegram Mini Apps? A Guide for Crypto Beginners

Meanwhile, a DOGS representative spoke to BeInCrypto regarding the recent decision surrounding their event. The representative clarified that the decision-making process was transparent, with every token holder given the opportunity to participate.

However, they noted that there was a collective decision not to burn all unclaimed airdrops, indicating that this choice was made with input from the community and based on a majority consensus.

“Instead of opting for a short-term gain by burning all (or at least a higher proportion of) unclaimed tokens — which would have likely boosted immediate value — our community voted to allocate a significant portion of these tokens to charitable causes,” the spokesperson told BeInCrypto.

DOGS and NOT Prices Target Breakout

A look at the 4-hour chart shows that DOGS’ price is attempting to rise above the descending triangle, characterized by a flatter horizontal trendline and a descending one. When the price falls below the horizontal trendline, the token in question could undergo another correction.

On the other hand, if the price breaks above the descending trendline, a rally occurs. As seen below, DOGS’s price is far above the horizontal part and could rise past the triangle. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum, also backs this prediction as it is above the zero signal line.

Should this remain the same after the token burn, DOGS could jump toward $0.00088 and likely hit $0.0010 afterward. The prediction might, however, be invalidated if the token drops back to the horizontal line at $0.00068.

Meanwhile, Notcoin’s market structure on the daily chart is similar to DOGS’ technical setup. From the chart below, NOT’s price is looking to break the $0.0085 resistance. If successful, Notcoin’s price could jump toward $0.11 and eventually $0.014. However, if the token fails to rise above the overhead resistance, a decline to $0.0072 could be possible. 

Read more: Top 9 Telegram Channels for Crypto Signals in October 2024

In the meantime, the Dogs team noted that it would donate the remaining 6 billion unclaimed Telegram airdrop tokens to charitable causes related to children and animals.

“All the donations made have always been and will always be clearly presented to the community ensuring accountability. The most active community members will in the future be able to take part in real-life charity initiatives,” the project’s representative added.

Crypto.com filed a lawsuit against the US Securities and Exchange Commission after receiving Wells notice, signaling future prosecution. The SEC seeks to cast most crypto transactions as securities transactions, greatly tightening restrictions on the industry.

Crypto.com is not the first company to file a preemptive lawsuit over this issue, but as of yet, there is no clear conclusion.

The development began on the morning of October 8, when the SEC sent a Wells notice to Crypto.com. A Wells notice is a declaration from the SEC that its investigation of a company is over, and that it seeks to prosecute it. In response, Crypto.com’s CEO Kris Marszalek announced that he would sue the SEC first.

“This unprecedented action by our company against a federal agency is a warranted response to the SEC’s regulation by enforcement regime which has hurt more than 50 million American crypto holders. The SEC’s unauthorized overreach and unlawful rulemaking regarding crypto must stop,” Marszalek said.

Read more: What Does It Mean To Receive a Wells Notice From the SEC?

Crypto.com’s official statement regarding this lawsuit was direct and bellicose. It claimed that improper attacks from the SEC are “part of the process” of running a legitimate exchange, and that regulator actions against the industry left Crypto.com with “no other choice”. It even added that this prosecution goes against the growing bipartisan pro-crypto consensus in government.

In short, Marszalek and Crypto.com have depicted the SEC’s impending lawsuit as wholly illegitimate. They claim that the SEC is seeking to consider nearly every crypto asset transaction a securities transaction, minus Bitcoin and Ethereum. The firm even filed a petition to the SEC and CFTC, asking for explicit confirmation that some crypto assets are in fact commodities.

The SEC’s War on Exchanges

This preemptive strike mirrors a similar action from Consensys this April. In response to the threat of impending prosecution, it also launched a lawsuit against the SEC, over the same concern about securities transactions. This lawsuit was dismissed in late September, and there has been no satisfying answer to any of these questions.

Essentially, Marszalek may have a point in describing this suit as an act to “protect the future of crypto”. Commodity regulations are looser than securities, and that’s a big part of why Bitcoin and Ethereum are considered commodities. However, if every single other asset is held to a higher standard, it would have dramatic effects on the entire industry.

Read More: What Is the Howey Test and How Does It Impact Crypto?

For now, this legal battle is in the very early stages. Cronos (CRO), a native token built on Crypto.com’s blockchain, has dropped in price since the announcement. Other than this slightly bearish omen, however, the proceedings are unclear. Marszalek and his team will likely pursue this case to the fullest, and hopefully, it will clarify all exchanges’ legal status.

Cardano (ADA) price is currently showing signs of a potential consolidation phase as large transactions have surged and then stabilized over the past few weeks.

In the end of September, ADA saw a significant spike in large on-chain transactions exceeding $100,000. However, after this peak, large transactions steadily declined, signaling that major market participants may be cooling off their activity.

ADA Large Transactions Shows a Consolidation Phase

On September 26, ADA witnessed a significant spike in its number of large transactions, reaching a monthly high of 5,070. Large transactions refer to on-chain transfers with a value exceeding $100,000, and monitoring these transactions is essential for understanding market behavior, especially as they often involve institutional investors or major market participants.

These larger players can significantly impact price movements, and their activity provides key insights into market trends and liquidity. The increase in ADA’s large transactions on September 26 coincided with a positive price movement, where ADA’s price surged, reaching over $0.40 between September 26 and September 27.

This correlation suggests that the influx of high-value transactions may have contributed to or reflected a growing market interest in ADA during that period.

Read more: How To Buy Cardano (ADA) and Everything You Need To Know

However, after this peak, the number of large transactions started to decline steadily, dropping to 2,300 on October 6 and slightly recovering to 3,000 by October 7. This decrease in high-value on-chain activity could indicate a cooling-off period.

Without strong large-scale transaction activity, ADA might not be in a clear upward or downward trend, suggesting that market participants are waiting for new developments or clearer signals before making their next significant moves. This period of lower transaction volume could mean that ADA is in a holding pattern, with traders waiting for the next catalyst.

Cardano Whales Are Stable In The Last Few Days

Between September 6 and September 22, ADA whales reduced their holdings, with the number of addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA dropping from 405 to 388. However, since September 22, the number of ADA addresses holding between 1 million and 100 million ADA has become relatively stable.

Currently, 2,443 addresses hold between 1 million and 10 million ADA, while 391 addresses hold between 10 million and 100 million ADA, signaling little change in their positions.

This stability indicates that ADA whales have halted their selling or buying activity, suggesting that they are in a wait-and-see mode. The lack of significant movement could imply that these large holders are waiting for clearer market conditions or signals before making their next moves, likely assessing whether to re-enter or continue reducing their positions.

This pause in whale activity often points to uncertainty, where major players prefer to stay on the sidelines, awaiting a more decisive market direction before acting.

ADA Price Prediction: Trend Direction Is Still Not Clear

ADA’s price chart is currently showing a mild downtrend, though it’s not particularly strong, as the EMA lines remain very close to one another. This closeness between the lines suggests that ADA could be entering a consolidation phase around the $0.34 level.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) lines are key technical indicators that smooth out price data, giving more weight to recent prices. Traders commonly use EMA lines to identify trends. When EMA lines are close together, it typically indicates a lack of strong momentum in either direction, reinforcing the idea that ADA is in a period of consolidation.

Read more: Who Is Charles Hoskinson, the Founder of Cardano?

The ADA price has already broken a key support level at $0.34, signaling the possibility of further downside movement. If the downward trend continues, ADA could potentially head toward testing the next major support at $0.27.

This would mark a deeper correction in price if selling pressure increases. However, should a reversal to the upside occur, ADA would likely first test the $0.36 resistance level, followed by a challenge of the $0.41 level.

A move up to $0.41 would represent a potential 20% gain from its current price, offering an attractive target for traders if bullish momentum builds. The closeness of the EMA lines shows that the market is awaiting clearer signals before a stronger trend emerges in either direction.