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El Salvador’s Bitcoin Gamble Under Scrutiny: IMF Urges Policy Change

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According to latest reports, El Salvador Bitcoin’s dream is now under scrutiny by The International Monetary Fund (IMF). Particularly, the IMF has urged El Salvador to reconsider its approach to its Bitcoin law, recommending “narrowing” the law’s scope and reducing the public sector’s exposure to Bitcoin.

Notably, BTC became a legal tender in El Salvador in September 2021, and ever since, the country has been actively working to integrate the crypto asset within the region.

The Push To Tame Bitcoin Law, Why?

The IMF’s call for El Salvador to limit its Bitcoin policy comes from ongoing discussions with Salvadoran authorities about “macroeconomic stabilization and reform policies.” Julie Kozack, IMF’s communications director, addressed the organization’s concerns at a recent press briefing.

She emphasized the need to address risks associated with Bitcoin adoption in El Salvador, stating that regulatory oversight and the overall framework governing the country’s BTC ecosystem require strengthening.

The briefing revealed that the IMF is in talks with El Salvador to establish a program to stabilize the economy, support growth reforms, and tackle issues tied to BTC’s legal status.

Specifically, they disclosed that their push for El Salvador to make a policy change on its Bitcoin laws is due to the “potential risks” involved in El Salvador’s comprehensive embrace of the asset, concerning “fiscal policies and financial stability.”

What is Next for El Salvador?

Despite the legal integration of BTC as an alternative currency, the IMF believes that many of the associated risk are yet to be materialized completely. The IMF noted in a statement published in August:

There is joint recognition that further efforts are needed to enhance transparency and mitigate potential fiscal and financial stability risks from the Bitcoin project. Additional discussions in this and other key areas remain necessary,

Notably, the IMF plan, as disclosed, is to ensure that El Salvador’s public sector does not become “overly exposed” to BTC’s volatility and that the digital currency is “well-regulated” within the broader financial system. They added in the statement:

Progress has been made in the negotiations toward a Fund-supported program, focused on policies to strengthen public finances, boost bank reserve buffers, improve governance and transparency, and mitigate the risks from Bitcoin

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that the Salvadoran government’s bold move to recognize Bitcoin as a legal tender marked a global first and has positioned the country at the forefront of crypto innovation.

The region has made several developments concerning crypto to cement it as a crypto hub further. El Salvador added 162 BTC to its national holdings in August this year.

Additionally, in February, the country launched a BTC educational project to empower its young citizens with the skills needed to run a node on the BTC network.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart on TradingView
BTC price is moving upwards on the 2-hour chart. Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView



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Bitcoin Bull Saylor Hints at Expanding MicroStrategy’s Holdings

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Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, has hinted at the possibility of additional Bitcoin purchases.

In a November 24 post on X (formerly Twitter), Saylor teased the company’s plans following its successful $3 billion fundraising round on November 22.

MicroStrategy’s $3 Billion Raise Could Fuel New Bitcoin Purchases

The Bitcoin bull mentioned that MicroStrategy’s portfolio tracker, SaylorTracker, “needs more green dots.” These markers symbolize the company’s each Bitcoin acquisition, fueling speculation about another significant purchase.

Saylor’s recent hints echo his previous two Sunday posts, which preceded announcements of large-scale Bitcoin acquisitions. During this period, MicroStrategy added approximately 80,000 BTC to its holdings, worth over $6 billion at the time.

MicroStrategy Bitcoin Holdings
MicroStrategy Bitcoin Holdings. Source: SaylorTracker

Meanwhile, the recent $3 billion funding — raised through the issuance of convertible debt — could be instrumental in financing these new acquisitions. The convertible notes, sold privately to institutional investors under US securities laws, will mature on December 1, 2029. These notes carry a 55% premium and an implied strike price of $672 per share of MicroStrategy’s Class A common stock.

Market observers noted that this fundraiser aligns with MicroStrategy’s ambitious “21/21” initiative, which aims to raise $42 billion over three years through a mix of equity and fixed-income instruments.

The company remains the largest Bitcoin-holding public entity, with 331,200 BTC valued at over $32.7 billion. According to Saylor, MicroStrategy’s treasury operations have delivered a year-to-date Bitcoin yield of 41.8%, generating a net benefit of around 79,130 BTC, or roughly 246 BTC daily, without the operational costs associated with mining.

Additionally, this strategy has also bolstered MicroStrategy’s stock performance. MSTR shares have surged over 515% since the start of the year, making it one of the most actively traded stocks in the US.

Saylor emphasized that MicroStrategy’s operations are driven by its Bitcoin holdings, which are optimized through strategic financial tools like ATM offerings, enabling the company to reduce risk and volatility while enhancing shareholder value.

“MicroStrategy is powered by its Bitcoin treasury operations. We sell volatility through our ATM offerings, strip BTC risk, volatility, and performance from our fixed-income securities, and transfer that performance to our MSTR equity holders,” he stated.

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$100K Bitcoin Is Only The Beginning, VanEck Targets $180K

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Recent gains in Bitcoin are owed in part to changes in the political environment, particularly in the US. Incoming US President Donald Trump is backing cryptocurrencies, sparking renewed market optimism among investors.

From reforms in regulatory structures to a proposal for a national Bitcoin reserve, the policies he enforces provide Bitcoin an exceptional outlet for growth in an increasingly open and friendly new landscape. These changes places the US in a strategic position as the world’s leader in crypto innovation while giving a fertile ground for Bitcoin to continue growing.

BTCUSD is currently trading at $97,377. Chart: TradingView

Crypto On The Rise

These possible changes have been well taken by market participants, who have seen the highest market dominance of BTC at 59%. A bill being worked out may permit state-chartered banks to mint stablecoins without seeking prior approval from the Federal Reserve, putting the US in a very commanding position in the race to dominate financial innovation. Furthermore, proposals to deregulate the energy industry may favor crypto mining, which will place the US in a better position in the global race for blockchain.

Historic Rally: BTC Approaching $100K

Bitcoin is trading at nearly $99,850 and is on the verge of the long-awaited $100,000 milestone. Similar to other bull runs, including the one witnessed after the elections in 2020, when the price of Bitcoin nearly doubled in a matter of a few months, some believe institutional interest coupled with friendly economic conditions and increased on-chain activity are the drivers of this phenomenal appreciation of the price of Bitcoin.

Source: VanEck

According to VanEck’s latest report, Bitcoin still is in its early stages of the rally, and there is minimal technical resistance in its way. With investor enthusiasm building, growing calls for the alpha coin to be adopted as a strategic reserve, and with a supportive US government, this rally appears well-positioned to continue. Experts are optimistic that Bitcoin is going to push forward and hit new highs.

The Future Of Bitcoin: Cautious Optimism

Analysts, while acknowledging that momentum is strong, point out that the market may run too hot, and early signs in the development are a rise in funding rates and increased unrealized profits. However, even from this stage, long-term prospects appear bright given strong institutional demand, solid on-chain metrics, and supportive regulatory changes, according to the forecast of $180,000 by VanEck for Bitcoin in the current cycle.

While historical data may indicate the crypto asset’s growth is decelerating as the markets mature, the cryptocurrency still shows hopeful prospects in the near term. So far, this rally displays the confidence of investors and has incrementally acquired recognition regarding Bitcoin’s role in a changed financial sector.

Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView





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Bitcoin Whales Remain Determined, $3.96 Billion Worth Of BTC Gobbled Up In 96 Hours

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All eyes are on Bitcoin, especially as many traders continue to anticipate a break above the $100,000 mark. This anticipation has cascaded into a spike in activity, especially among Bitcoin whales. Interestingly, Bitcoin whales are making bold statements amidst the anticipation, with on-chain data pointing to an accumulation of over 40,000 BTC in just 96 hours among this holder cohort.

This interesting accumulation coincides with the Bitcoin price reaching a peak of $99,645 in the last 24 hours, adding further momentum to the narrative of a possible historic price milestone.

Examining The Holding Patterns Of Bitcoin Whales

Bitcoin’s recent price dynamics have put the spotlight on Bitcoin whales. Ali Martinez, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, drew attention to the remarkable activity of Bitcoin whales on social media platform X.

While highlighting Santiment data, Martinez revealed that Bitcoin whales have bought over 40,000 BTC worth approximately $3.96 billion in the past 96 hours. Notably, the Bitcoin whales referred to in this metric by Santiment consist of addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. 

Image From X: Ali Martinez

 

This aggressive accumulation comes at a critical juncture for Bitcoin, with prices flirting near the much-anticipated $100,000 mark. Such whale activity typically reduces the available supply of Bitcoin on the open market, which is expected to keep pushing up the Bitcoin price.

Despite the increase in whale accumulation, on-chain data from Glassnode suggests that long-term holders have upped their profit-taking in tandem. Particularly, over 128,000 BTC has been sold by long-term holders since early October.

However, this long-term holder profit taking has so far been offset by the demand from US Spot Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs have acted as a counterbalance, absorbing nearly 90% of the Bitcoin sold by long-term holders.

Image From X: Glassnode

 

A possible explanation is that long-term holders are exiting their self-custody of Bitcoin and are instead diverting their holdings into Spot Bitcoin ETFs in order to benefit from their regulatory clarity. According to data from SoSoValue, Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US witnessed consecutive days of inflows throughout last week to bring the total inflow to $3.38 billion, which is the largest weekly inflow since their launch in January 2024. 

Bitcoin is currently trading at $97,493. Chart: TradingView

What’s Next For Bitcoin Price?

Looking ahead, the Bitcoin price is definitely on its way to break above $100,000 in the next few days. However, it remains to be seen what happens after that. Crypto analyst Tony Severino has speculated that the Bitcoin price peak could double within a timeframe of two weeks to two months following the break above $100,000.This prediction is based off of the Bitcoin price performance after it first broke above the $10,000 price level in 2017. 

On the other hand, veteran analyst Peter Brandt suggests there could be some sort of selling pressure among bulls once the Bitcoin price breaks above $100,000. 

“What I had in mind here is the possibility that bulls will sell their BTC sub $100,00 thinking they will buy a correction that does not come, then turn bearish if Bitcoin goes to $120,000 believing price must come down,” he said.

Nevertheless, the current crypto market landscape is set in place for a continued Bitcoin price increase in the next few weeks and months.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView



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