The Bitcoin price having an outstanding Q4 to close the year 2024 has been one of the most prominent narratives in the cryptocurrency market in recent weeks. Interestingly, a popular blockchain firm has weighed in with unique on-chain insights into the BTC’s price trajectory.

Can Bitcoin Price Reach $100,000 By December 2024?

In a new report, CryptoQuant revealed that the price of Bitcoin is entering a period of positive seasonal performance with the historically bullish Q4 yet to take its usual course. The on-chain analytics firm highlighted that the premier cryptocurrency usually performs well in the last three months of a halving year.

According to data from CryptoQuant, the Bitcoin price increased by 9%, 59%, and 171% in 2012, 2016, and 2020 (the first three halving years), respectively. Meanwhile, the value of the premier cryptocurrency is up by 46.79% so far in 2024.

Interestingly, CryptoQuant put forward an end-of-the-year target of between $85,000 to $100,000 for the Bitcoin price. It is worth noting that the Q4 rally to this new price high would place the coin’s yearly performance between 100% and 138%.

However, the blockchain firm has identified certain factors that need to align for the Bitcoin price to resume its bull run and potentially reach a new record high. One of these critical factors is demand, which has been mostly stagnant over the last few months.

Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin demand growth has been swinging between -23,000 to +69,000 BTC since July. For context, demand soared as high as a staggering 498,000 BTC in April when the market leader danced around the $70,000 price level. Ultimately, this suggests burgeoning demand could have a positive impact on the Bitcoin price in the latter part of 2024.  

BTC Demand From US Spot ETFs On The Rise

Propitiously, demand for Bitcoin from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States has been picking up in recent weeks. According to CryptoQuant data, the Bitcoin funds went from net selling 5,000 BTC in early September to net buying 7,000 BTC by the month’s end.

In comparison, the US spot ETF market purchased nearly 9,000 BTC daily in 2024’s first quarter, catapulting the premier cryptocurrency to the current all-time high of $73,737 by mid-March. If this positive trend continues, investors could see the Bitcoin price revisit its all-time high or even higher before the year is out.

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin sits just above the $62,000 mark, reflecting a 2.3% increase in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin price at $62,000 mark on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart from TradingView

Featured image created by Dall.E, chart from TradingView

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has suggested that El Salvador reduce government support for Bitcoin. This is a far more conciliatory attitude than previous attempts to repeal the nation’s Bitcoin law.

Nevertheless, President Nayib Bukele seems committed to Bitcoinization.

Bitcoin and El Salvador

According to a recent report from Forbes, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is trying a new tactic with El Salvador: if it won’t repeal Bitcoin’s status as a legal currency, it should reduce Bitcoin’s legal support. The IMF has remained an implacable enemy of El Salvador’s Bitcoin project since Bukele declared it legal tender in 2021.

“What we have recommended is a narrowing of the scope of the bitcoin law, strengthening the regulatory framework and oversight of the bitcoin ecosystem, and limiting public sector exposure to bitcoin,” IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack claimed via press conference.

Read more: Top 9 Crypto Friendly Countries For Digital Assets Investors

Before Bukele legalized Bitcoin as a legal tender in El Salvador, the country’s sole currency was US dollars. Bukele explicitly cast this turn towards decentralized currency as an attempt to gain national sovereignty and economic independence. The IMF has tried various tactics to reverse this legislation, such as tanking Salvadoran bonds, but their tune might be changing.

Bukele won re-election in June this year, promising an “economic transformation” through Bitcoin. In his second term, he began new ambitious projects to integrate it into the economy. Additionally, since his re-election, the IMF has seemed more conciliatory in their approach, and today’s statements seem to continue the trend.

Simply put, the cat is out of the bag, thanks to Bukele’s successes. El Salvador has acquired a substantial stockpile of Bitcoin, and Forbes‘ analysis of the country’s 2025 budget suggests that the country will not require IMF loans. Slight reconciliation now might be the IMF’s best chance to rebuild a working relationship with the country.

Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

The IMF’s incentives are not aligned with El Salvador’s, and El Salvador should forge its own path, independent of IMF interests. It was a very beneficial move to defy their previous advice regarding Bitcoin,” claimed John Dennehy, founder of Salvadoran NGO Mi Primer Bitcoin.

It seems unlikely that Bukele will accept this olive branch. His re-election was quite the political accomplishment, and he has a variety of plans to continue the nation’s Bitcoinization. El Salvador has made it this far by disregarding the financial establishment, and has little reason to stop now. Bitcoin is performing well, and the future looks bright.

The Bitcoin price action in the past two weeks has reiterated its volatile nature despite the steady flow of institutional money. The cryptocurrency surged in the last days of September from $53,500 to a high of $66,000, only to pull back to $61,000 in the first few days of October, showing its unpredictable nature.

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s rally to reaching $66,000 has led to a change in the investing dynamics among holder cohorts. Furthermore, this change in dynamics reveals that its reversal and retest after the rally is not entirely bad news for Bitcoin’s price. In fact, this shift suggests that the pullback could be setting the stage for a more resilient long-term price outlook for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s Rejection At $66,000

Bitcoin’s recent break above $66,000 last week led to the creation of the first higher high since June. This notable Bitcoin development was noted by on-chain analytics platform Glassnode in a recent report. Bitcoin, which had initially created a higher low of $53,000 in September, eventually went on to break above the August high of $64,500. According to the report, the creation of this higher high led to a change in the profitability of short-term and long-term holder cohorts, with many more bitcoins moving into the long-term threshold. 

Particularly, the recent rally has seen many coins acquired in close proximity to the $73,780 all-time high now being held for over 155 days. This, in turn, has seen many of these coins, which are in losses, now moving to long-term holder status. Although only 6.54% of long-term holders are in losses, they account for 47.4% of all coins in losses. While this might not bode well at the moment for these long-term holders, Glassnode notes that this is actually common during re-accumulation phases, as seen in the 2013, 2019 and 2021 periods. History shows that these have often led to price rallies. 

On the other end, profitability has improved massively among short-term holders. Glassnode data shows that a significant number of coins that are still in the short-term cohort have a cost basis between $53,000 and $66,000. Interestingly, the last rally has pushed the profitability of short-term holder supply to over 62%. Notably, profit-taking volumes are now 14.17 times larger than for loss-taking. As such, the financial pressure on short-term holders has now been eased, and many of them now have incentives to keep holding. 

What Next For Bitcoin?

Despite Bitcoin’s recent reversal at $66,000, the cryptocurrency finds itself in a stronger and more profitable position for investors around the board compared to where it stood just a month ago. Furthermore, the rejection at $66,000 has given investors, especially long-term holders, another chance to load up on their holdings. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $61,200.  

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com