Ethereum is down when writing, mirroring the general performance across the board. The nearly 2% drop in the crypto scene is due to the contraction of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and top altcoins. At present, the total market cap is down to $2.17 trillion. It could post even more losses should bears press on, reversing the gains of September.

Ethereum Under Pressure, Will $2,350 Offer Support?

In the last week alone, CoinMarketCap data shows that Ethereum is down 10%, pushing losses below $2,400, a former support, now resistance. While it could appear that the sharp dump of the better part of this week is discouraging participation, some traders are accumulating at around spot rates.

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IntoTheBlock data on October 3 shows that 1.89 million Ethereum addresses bought 52 million ETH at around the $2,311 and $2,383 range. That a large amount of buyers choose to buy, on average, at $2,350 means this is a support level that traders should closely watch.

Considering the number of ETH accumulated, sellers would need to exert more effort to break below this level, forcing the coin towards $2,100 and August lows. Comparing traders’ action and the September range, the $2,350 level falls at around 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels.

What’s Next For ETH?

Technically, crypto prices, including ETH, tend to find support around this Fibonacci retracement zone. Accordingly, how prices react between the $2,100 and $2,350 zone will likely shape the medium to long-term trend.

Related Reading: What’s Holding Bitcoin Back? Analyst Says $71,000 Is The Magic Number

A refreshing bounce around this emerging support and Fibonacci retracement zone would be a massive boost. In this case, ETH could rally, even above $2,800, as bulls target $3,500.

Conversely, any sharp dump below August and September lows may easily trigger panic selling. Out of this, ETH can slump below $2,100 and $2,000 and may fall to as low as $1,800, confirming losses of early August.

Considering the state of price action, sellers have the upper hand. Over the past few trading sessions, centralized exchanges have had massive outflows.

Earlier today, The Data Nerd revealed that Wintermute, a crypto market maker, moved 14,221 ETH to Binance, indicating that they might sell. In August, Wintermute and other leading market makers, including Jump Capital, sold over 130,000 ETH, forcing prices lower.

Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView

Popular crypto analyst Il Capo of Crypto has returned to social media platform X after over two months of hiatus to drop an interesting outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum in the coming months in light of the recent correction since the beginning of October. The analyst, which has been so big on a looming altseason since the beginning of the year, has revealed a bearish outlook for Bitcoin and even Ethereum (king of altcoins) in the short term.

Known for his sometimes controversial and often contrarian predictions, Capo returned just as the market experienced a notable correction in October, sharing his bearish outlook for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. His latest prediction is that Ethereum could plummet as low as $1,800 before seeing any substantial recovery.

ETH’s Predicted Decline

Ethereum has already dropped by 10% in the past seven days and is currently trading around around $2,330, but according to Capo, this decline could worsen. He predicted that ETH might fall further into the $1,800 to $2,000 range, which is a possible 23% dip from its current price, before eventually rebounding. However, he believes an altcoin season will still materialize. 

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Quick update:

There’s a possibility of one last shakeout, with $BTC testing the $48k-50k zone and $ETH $1.8k-2k, before the real altseason begins.

If that happens, I’ll be adding more to my altcoin bags. https://t.co/sx6u8wPNrK

— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) October 2, 2024

Capo’s track record of analysis since the beginning of the year shows a consistent belief in the upcoming dominance of altcoins. Throughout 2024, he has repeatedly emphasized the potential for altcoins, particularly Ethereum, to outperform Bitcoin as profits generated from BTC flow into smaller assets. However, the altcoin season has yet to materialize, and Bitcoin has continued to dominate the crypto investment scene.

Time To Go Long On Ethereum?

It’s worth noting that Crypto Capo’s predictions often have a certain lore attached to them. There is a running joke among some investors that whenever Capo makes a prediction, the market tends to do the opposite. This goes as far back as his prediction of Bitcoin falling to $12,000 last year, but the crypto eventually broke past resistance levels. Now, with Capo predicting the possibility of continued decline for Ethereum and Bitcoin amid October’s bullish market sentiment (often dubbed “Uptober”), it raises the question from many investors if his bearish call is far-fetched.

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Only time will tell if the market plays out according to Capo’s analysis. However, given the current inflow of investments and the crypto market, which has mostly rallied in October, it wouldn’t be surprising if Ethereum rebounds rather than experiences the significant drop Capo is forecasting.

Naturally, many savvy whales and traders have seen the current decline as an opportunity to “go long” and accumulate more Ethereum in expectation of the resumption of inflows. This sentiment is reflected through the US Spot Ethereum ETFs, which witnessed $14.45 million in inflows yesterday despite the price correction.

Interestingly, it is important to note that Capo’s analysis is only talking about a possible case and remains bullish for Ethereum in the long term. 

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

The cryptocurrency market is presently experiencing a substantial decline, as both Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced a substantial decrease in active addresses. This trend, which has persisted throughout 2024, has triggered apprehension regarding the future of these prominent cryptocurrencies. The implications for market dynamics could be profound as investor enthusiasm diminishes.

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Declining Active Addresses

According to the latest stats from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s active addresses have contracted by about 1.17 million to 855,000, whereas Ethereum has reduced by about 382,000 to 312,000. This equates to a 27% drawdown for Bitcoin and an 18% decline for Ethereum year-to-date.

The absence of new investors entering the market appears to be the primary cause of this decline. This is essential for maintaining favorable momentum, as existing participants dominate trading activity in the absence of new capital inflows.

Since early 2024, active Bitcoin and Ethereum addresses have been declining

“For the bulls to dominate the market, the influx of new investors is a crucial condition.

1. Bitcoin 1.17M -> 855K
2. Ethereum 382K -> 312K” – By @burak_kesmeci

Full post 👇https://t.co/gZftQidnxa pic.twitter.com/q5cdpv7x6t

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 1, 2024

The anticipated excitement surrounding the approval of spot ETFs has not translated into increased activity on the blockchain. Still, the current user base carries a lot of investors who would have expected such developments. The continued quantitative tightening of the Federal Reserve continues to strip liquidity from the market, adding more pressure to the situation.

Market Sentiment And Future Prospects

There are, however indications that a potential rebound is near in the face of these challenges. For example, funding rate on Ethereum has remained positive for the past week, meaning there is growing interest among investors in long positions. This implies that whereas plunges in the price of Ethereum have been ongoing, a good majority of the market remains optimistic regarding its performance going forward.

BTC and ETH addresses decline: BTC drops to 855K, ETH to 312K in 2024

Since the start of 2024, the number of active Bitcoin and Ethereum addresses has continued to drop. Bitcoin addresses fell from 1.17 million to 855,000, while Ethereum addresses declined from 382,000 to…

— CoinNess Global (@CoinnessGL) October 1, 2024

It’s quite interesting that large Ethereum holders have been accumulating their assets, rather than selling them off. These large holders reduced their outflows from 311,950 to 139,390, suggesting they have confidence in the long-term prospects of the altcoin. Investors that do this kind of action usually expect the prices to recover soon.

Furthermore, Bitcoin’s Exchange Flow Multiple has experienced a substantial decline. This metric contrasts with short-term inflows and outflows with those over a lengthier period, indicating that current trading activity is significantly lower than historical averages. A low Exchange Flow Multiple typically suggests that investors are holding their assets in anticipation of future price increases rather than actively trading them.

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Bitcoin & Ethereum: Broader Perspective

The broader bitcoin market is negotiating a complicated terrain molded by geopolitics concerns and legislative changes. Recent occurrences have helped investors to be generally more cautious. For instance, despite market volatility causing Ethereum to tumble to about $2,390, Bitcoin has managed to remain constant above $61,100.

Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView