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This is Why Majority of Airdrop Tokens Crash Within 15 Days

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Crypto airdrops, a strategy prevalent since 2017 for distributing tokens and stirring early enthusiasm, are increasingly facing challenges. Despite initial excitement, a recent study by KeyRock Trading highlights that there is a downturn in token performance shortly after listing.

Moreover, many airdrop tokens fail to sustain long-term interest or value.

Airdrop Token Performance Analyzed

The study, which analyzed 62 airdrops across six blockchain networks throughout 2024, paints a stark picture of the effectiveness of these campaigns. Notably, after 90 days, 88.7% of the tokens analyzed showed a decline in price, with only a handful showing resilience.

Read more: Earning Passive Income with Forks and Airdrops in 2024

In the crypto ecosystem, airdrops are a way to boost protocol engagement and widen token distribution. However, the oversaturation of such strategies seems to have diluted their impact, leading to decreased community retention and sometimes even protocol abandonment.

“Looking at price action over 15, 30, and 90 days, it becomes evident that the majority of price movement occurs in the earliest days following the airdrop. After three months, few tokens manage to return a positive result, with only a handful bucking this trend,” Keyrock said.

Airdrop Price Performance After 15, 30, and 90 Days of Listing
Airdrop Price Performance After 15, 30, and 90 Days of Listing. Source: Keyrock

Interestingly, while the overall performance of airdrops paints a bleak picture, not all results were uniformly disappointing. The data revealed that outcomes varied significantly between different blockchains.

For instance, Ethereum and Solana stood out, with 14.8% and 25% of their respective airdrops maintaining or increasing in value after three months. Conversely, other networks like BNB, Starknet, Arbitrum, Merlin, Blast, Mode, and ZkSync saw no airdrops with positive outcomes.

The disparity in performance among chains highlights the influence of network preference and user base characteristics. Solana, gaining popularity as a retail favorite and a serious contender to Ethereum’s dominance, showed relatively better outcomes, possibly due to its growing and engaged community.

Large Airdrops Tend to Do Well

Moreover, KeyRock’s report also delved into the role of token distribution strategies. It categorized airdrops based on the percentage of total token supply distributed – small (less than 5%), medium (greater than 5% but less than or equal to 10%), and large (more than 10%). The findings suggest that the size of an airdrop can significantly influence both initial market reaction and long-term viability.

Read more: Best Upcoming Airdrops in 2024

Airdrop Returns by Distribution Size.
Airdrop Returns by Distribution Size. Source: Keyrock

In the short run, smaller airdrops tended to perform better, possibly due to reduced immediate sell pressure. However, these gains were often short-lived, with significant price drops occurring within three months. This suggests that while initial scarcity can curb immediate sell-offs, it might also lead to delayed market corrections as conditions change or insiders decide to cash out.

Furthermore, medium-sized airdrops struck a balance, showing slightly better retention and performance. However, it was the larger airdrops that truly excelled over longer periods. These extensive distributions appeared to foster a stronger sense of community ownership, which could be instrumental in stabilizing price fluctuations and sustaining user interest.

“Ultimately, this data suggests that being less stingy with token distributions pays off. Protocols that are generous with their airdrops tend to cultivate a more invested user base, leading to better outcomes over time,” Keyrock concluded.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Traders Show Confidence in Solana Recovery After Sub-$260 Dip

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On November 23, Solana’s (SOL) price hit a new all-time high, sparking speculation that the altcoin could rally as high as $300. While that did not happen, recent data shows that Solana traders are betting on a rebound.

Why are traders confident? This on-chain analysis explores whether these positions could deliver gains or if many are at risk of liquidation.

Solana Longs Keep Shorts Out of the Way

Data from Coinglass reveals that Solana’s Long/Short ratio on the 1-hour timeframe has climbed to 1.17. This ratio gauges market expectations, indicating whether most traders hold bearish or bullish positions.

When the ratio falls below 1, it indicates more shorts (sellers) than longs (buyers). Conversely, a ratio above 1 suggests a higher number of traders betting on a price increase compared to those anticipating a decline.

Currently, 54% of Solana traders hold long positions, while 46.17% expect a drop below $255. This indicates a bullish leaning among traders, with more optimism about the token’s price rising than falling.

Solana traders position
Solana Long/Short Ratio. Source: Coinglass

Additionally, it appears that these traders’ positions could prove profitable, thanks to an uptick in Solana’s Transaction Rate, which is the number of successful transactions processed per second on its blockchain.

An increasing Transaction Rate signals heightened user activity and engagement with the cryptocurrency, while a decline indicates reduced interest. According to Glassnode, Solana’s Transaction Rate has been climbing. If this trend continues, it could propel SOL’s price past its all-time high.

Solana transactions increase
Solana Transaction Rate. Source: Glassnode

SOL Price Prediction: Upside Potential Remains

On the weekly chart, Solana’s price has surged above the 20 and 50 Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), key indicators that measure trends. When the price sits above the EMAs, it signals a bullish trend, while a drop below them typically signals bearish momentum.

With SOL currently priced at $255, above both EMAs, the altcoin seems poised to continue its upward direction. The formation of a bull flag further supports this bullish outlook.

A bull flag is a continuation pattern, indicating that once the price breaks out, it’s likely to maintain the prior upward momentum. As seen below, SOL has already broken out of the consolidation pattern and is heading higher. 

Solana price analysis
Solana Weekly Analysis. Source: TradingView

As long as the price remains above the upper trendline of the consolidation phase, it could rise toward $325. However, if selling pressure takes hold, this bullish scenario could shift. In that case, SOL might fall below $200.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Why Are Shiba Inu Holders Selling Their Coins?

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The meme coin mania of the past few weeks pushed Shiba Inu’s (SHIB) price to an eight-month high of $0.000030 on November 12. Due to this hike, a significant portion of SHIB’s supply is now profitable.

However, as market sentiment shifts, many Shiba Inu holders are now opting to secure their gains by selling their SHIB coins.

Shiba Inu Holders Sell For Profit

According to IntoTheBlock’s Global In/Out of the Money indicator, 829 trillion SHIB coins held by 851,000 addresses, which comprise 62% of all the meme coins holders, are “in the money.”

An address is considered “in the money” when the current market price of the asset it holds is higher than the average acquisition cost of the tokens in that address. This indicates that the holder would realize a profit by selling their holdings at the prevailing market price.

On the other hand, 82.39 trillion SHIB coins held by 398,000 addresses are “out of the money.” These are addresses that currently hold their coins at a loss. 

Shiba Inu Global In/Out of the Money.
Shiba Inu Global In/Out of the Money. Source: IntoTheBlock

With 62% of all its holders now in profit, there has been a resurgence in profit-taking activity. This is reflected in SHIB’s declining Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). As of this writing, this indicator is at 0.08, trending downward toward the center zero line.

The CMF measures the market’s buying and selling pressure. When it falls toward the zero line, it signals weakening buying momentum, indicating that market participants are losing conviction in the uptrend.

Shiba Inu CMF.
Shiba Inu CMF. Source: TradingView

Additionally, the setup of SHIB’s moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator confirms this bearish outlook. At press time, the coin’s MACD line (blue) rests below its signal line (orange).

This indicator measures an asset’s price trends and momentum and identifies its potential buy or sell signals. When the MACD line falls below the signal line, it indicates a bearish trend and confirms the reversal of an uptrend. It suggests that selling pressure is increasing, and the asset’s price could decline further.

Shiba Inu MACD
Shiba Inu MACD. Source: TradingView

SHIB Price Prediction: A Decline To $0.000020?

SHIB is trading at $0.000025, marking a 4% decline in the last 24 hours. It remains above key support at $0.000022. If SHIB falls below this support, its price could drop further to $0.000020.

Shiba Inu Price Analysis.
Shiba Inu Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

On the other hand, if profit-taking activity relaxes and the meme coin witnesses a resurgence in new demand, it will break above resistance at $0.000026 to reclaim its eight-month peak of $0.000030.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Will the MANA Crypto Price Rally End After a 70% Weekly Surge?

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MANA, Decentraland’s native cryptocurrency, has seen an impressive 70% price increase over the past week. This MANA crypto price surge is part of a broader rally in Metaverse-related tokens, which has caught the attention of the market.

While the development might have surprised some, a closer look by BeInCrypto provides insights into the catalysts behind this movement. This on-chain analysis looks at what could be next for the token. 

Decentraland Active Addresses, Volume Reach New Heights

The recent rally in MANA crypto price can be attributed to a significant increase in the token’s active addresses, which indicates heightened user interaction on the blockchain. Interestingly, this also matches the condition of The Sandbox (SAND), which was also one of the frontrunners of the Metaverse revival.

Active addresses measure the number of unique users successfully completing transactions. A rise in this metric signals increased engagement with the network, which is often considered bullish for a cryptocurrency. Conversely, a decline implies reduced traction, which is typically seen as bearish.

On November 20, MANA’s active addresses were around 810. Fast-forward a few days, and this figure has surged nearly fivefold, reflecting a growing interest in the token. This spike in activity likely provided the momentum for MANA’s price to climb from $0.40 to $0.70 — the highest level since March.

MANA crypto price activity
Decentraland Active Addresses. Source: CryptoQuant

Following the development, Santiment data showed that MANA’s volume climbed to $1.57 billion. Volume represents the total value of a specific cryptocurrency traded over a defined period.

This metric reflects a coin’s level of activity and liquidity. A high trading volume indicates notable buying and selling, which often suggests strong market participation. On the other hand, low volume may signify reduced activity, leading to weaker market interest.

Therefore, the hike in the token’s volume validated the signs shown by the active addresses. However, since MANA’s price has dropped from its recent peak, it could be challenging to keep up with the uptrend, with this analysis suggesting that another pullback could be close.

Decentraland (MANA) volume
Decentraland Volume. Source: Santiment

MANA Price Prediction: Pullback Imminent

From an on-chain perspective, the MANA crypto price rally might have hit a local top. This prediction is based on the signs shown by the In/Out of Money Around Price (IOMAP).

The IOMAP is a key metric that analyzes the distribution of cryptocurrency holders based on whether their holdings are in profit, loss, or at breakeven. It also provides insights into potential support and resistance levels in the market.

When there are large clusters “out of the money,” this indicates addresses holding at a higher price than the current market value. Such areas often act as resistance. Conversely, Large clusters “in the money” typically act as support, as holders may buy more or hesitate to sell, expecting further price gains.

For MANA, approximately 36.47 million tokens held by addresses that accumulated near $0.70 are currently “out of the money.” This volume surpasses the tokens held between $0.61 and $0.68, marking that range as a key resistance zone.

MANA price shows support
Decentraland In/Out of the Money. Source: IntoTheBlock

As such, the MANA crypto price might experience retracement. If that is the case, then the cryptocurrency’s value could drop to $0.61 in the short term. 

However, if buying pressure increases and volume outpaces the one at $0.70, this might not happen. Instead, MANA could climb to $0.80.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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