It has not been all rosy in the past week, but the digital asset market has reacted fairly well to the start of Donald Trump’s new administration. Specifically, the Bitcoin price has been able to weather the uncertain storm clouding the cryptocurrency market over the past few days.

While the premier cryptocurrency might have slowed down in recent days, the latest on-chain observation shows that BTC is likely to continue its upward movement. Here’s how the token price might be gearing for another leg up over the coming weeks.

Is There Room For Further BTC Price Growth?

In a Jan. 24 post on the X platform, market intelligence firm Glassnode explained that the Bitcoin price is not yet overheating and still has the potential for further growth over the next few weeks. This on-chain revelation is based on the Mayer Multiple indicator, which is calculated as the ratio between as asset price and the 200-day moving average (200DMA).

The Mayer Multiple measures the distance of the Bitcoin price from its long-term average to estimate overbought and oversold conditions. This metric is also used to establish macro bull or bear bias when analyzing cyclical price movements.

Historically, the Mayer Multiple signals an overbought market condition and a potential price top when its value is above 2.4. On the other hand, a Mayer Multiple value below 0.8 suggests an oversold condition and that a market bottom might be in.

Source: Glassnode

According to data from Glassnode, the value of Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple stands at 1.37, indicating that the premier cryptocurrency is still quite a distance from the overbought territory. This piece of data implies that BTC still has room for further growth in this cycle. Moreover, the Bitcoin price is at least 35% above the 200-day moving average, which is a bullish signal.

Glassnode highlighted that the price of Bitcoin would need to surge above $180,000 to become overbought. This price level represents the potential peak for the flagship cryptocurrency in this current cycle and could be followed by a trend reversal. With the oversold threshold at 0.8, the Mayer Multiple places the Bitcoin price bottom at around $60,000.

The Bitcoin price has not been particularly impressive since surpassing the $100,000 mark, leading to shouts of a price top in the market. This indicator somewhat provides insight into the potential path of the premier cryptocurrency over the next few months.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin sits just below $105,000, reflecting no significant movement in the past day.

The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView

Nasdaq has submitted a proposal to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to enable in-kind creation and redemption for BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT).

This request, filed on January 24, seeks to amend the ETF’s operational framework to allow direct Bitcoin transactions alongside the existing cash-based model.

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Inflow Streak Aligns With Nasdaq’s In-Kind Push

The proposed in-kind process would simplify the ETF’s creation and redemption system, reducing the number of intermediaries involved. However, this feature would be exclusive to institutional participants, leaving retail investors out of the in-kind process.

If approved, the change would allow authorized participants (APs) to settle transactions in Bitcoin instead of converting the asset to cash. This method offers potential benefits, including tax efficiency, improved price alignment with Bitcoin’s market value, and a more streamlined process.

“BTC ETFs are about to be more efficient similar to European ETPs. Authorised Participants can now create and redeem directly with Bitcoin than only using cash,” crypto analyst Tom Wan stated.

James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, highlighted this model’s operational efficiency. He noted that in-kind transfers involve fewer steps and parties compared to the cash-based process, which should make ETFs trade more smoothly. This efficiency could further enhance the appeal of Bitcoin ETFs to institutional investors.

“What it means is that ETFs should trade even more efficiently than they already do theoretically because things can be streamlined,” Seyffart said.

The request from Nasdaq reflects a growing demand for more flexible ETF structures. When spot Bitcoin ETFs first launched in January 2024, the SEC required issuers to use only a cash redemption model because the regulator “didn’t want brokers touching actual Bitcoin,” according to Seyffart.

However, as the market matures, calls for in-kind transfers have gained momentum, with proponents arguing that they better align with the decentralized nature of digital assets.

The filing coincides with a period of significant growth for IBIT. According to data from SoSoValue, the ETF has recently attracted over $2 billion in fresh inflows during a six-day streak.

Since its debut, IBIT has accumulated $39.7 billion in inflows, cementing its position as the top-performing spot Bitcoin ETF in the US.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced a historic 25 basis point (bp) hike, raising its benchmark lending rate to 0.5%, the highest since 2008.

Though widely anticipated, this move has traders and investors on the edge of their seats, bracing for its impact on Bitcoin and crypto markets in general.  

BOJ’s Rate Hike and Global Financial Impacts

The BOJ’s decision marks the third rate hike since early 2024. This signals a shift in Japan’s monetary policy amidst persistently high inflation, projected to remain between 2.6% and 2.8% in 2025.

Accordingly, Japan’s economic growth forecasts have been revised downward, adding complexity to an already volatile financial environment. A stronger Japanese currency resulting from the rate hike could disrupt the yen carry trade.

In the carry trade strategy, investors borrow yen at low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. This unwinding could trigger a chain reaction in global liquidity, influencing risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, equities, and commodities.

Following the announcement, Bitcoin dropped 3% but is already attempting a recovery. Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano also experienced corrections. The sentiment shift is likely tied to President Donald Trump’s executive order for a digital assets stockpile in the US.

The immediate correction suggests Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macroeconomic changes, with investors reducing their exposure to high-risk assets. Nevertheless, some analysts anticipate further downside for Bitcoin once the hype around systemic changes in the US fades.

“Bitcoin could experience a sharp 50% drop,” crypto analyst Financelancelot speculated.

The analyst draws parallels to the 1929 stock market crash, which highlighted the dangers of speculative bubbles. They highlighted striking similarities in technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which currently mirrors those from 1929. With this, the analyst predicts a potential flash crash toward the end of January 2025.

According to Financelancelot, events like the expiration of VIX options and geopolitical tensions could amplify volatility. On the other hand, some voices in the crypto space, like @0xKiryoko, remain cautiously optimistic.

“…global markets are going to feel it. Crypto included. Solana ETFs and a pro-crypto president won’t matter in the short term if liquidity dries up,” she noted.

Meanwhile, the BOJ’s rate hike is not the only factor weighing on the crypto market. Global uncertainties, including US trade policies and geopolitical developments, are adding layers of complexity. Cypress Demanincor, another market analyst, pointed out that the Trump administration’s economic strategies are creating additional volatility.

“Everyone’s attention was on the Trump inauguration for the next major market move when the bigger force to consider is the BOJ interest rate hike,” he said.

As the BOJ’s rate hike takes effect, traders and investors should monitor its implications. Historically, such moves, where there is the reverse carry trade, have led to short-term sell-offs followed by periods of recovery.

“Same thing that happened July 31st, 2024. Short-lived sell pressure and discounted prices that last a few days depending on the size of the unwind. Last time it was about a week’s worth of sell pressure,” Demanincor added.

The current environment reflects the importance of caution and strategic planning for cryptocurrency investors. While the market may face imminent volatility, this could present opportunities to accumulate assets at discounted prices.

“I feel sorry for everyone that got shaken out of the markets over last couple of days because of BOJ concerns, and lack of Strategic Bitcoin Reserve news. You have to have a longer time frame in your mind if you want to be a successful investor. Patience will reward you. Remember, 10 days give us the most gains in the Bitcoin cycle. Good luck timing that,” one crypto investor remarked.