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Is Bitcoin (BTC) Bull Run Stalling? CryptoQuant CEO Expects A Rebound In Q4

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Bitcoin is currently facing a critical test, having retraced over 19% from local highs and holding above a key demand level around $54,000 that supports the market structure. This level represents the last line of defense for BTC, and if it breaks, a deeper correction could be in play. 

Analysts and investors are actively sharing their insights, with many looking at market data to assess Bitcoin’s next move. CryptoQuant CEO, Ki Young Ju, recently shared crucial data that sheds light on the current situation. His analysis highlights on-chain metrics that provide a clearer understanding of why Bitcoin is struggling to maintain its value. 

Additionally, he has made a prediction for Bitcoin’s performance in the final months of the year, outlining what investors should watch for as market conditions evolve. As the year progresses, these insights could help guide market participants as they navigate the volatility surrounding Bitcoin’s price action.

US Demand Crucial For Bitcoin Bull Run

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing significant selling pressure, largely attributed to a notable decline in demand. Recent data shared by Ju, reveals that Coinbase’s Bitcoin spot trading volume dominance has reverted to pre-spot ETF levels. This shift highlights a substantial dip in US demand, a crucial factor for sustaining the bullish momentum seen earlier this year.

Coinbase Bitcoin spot trading volume dominance is back to pre-spot ETF levels.
Coinbase BTC spot trading volume dominance is back to pre-spot ETF levels. | Source: Ki Young Ju on X

Ju emphasizes that for Bitcoin’s bull cycle to regain its strength, a rebound in US demand is essential. He projects that this recovery might occur in the fourth quarter of 2024, suggesting that we are currently in the midst of the market cycle without having reached the retail bubble phase. This perspective implies that there remains ample opportunity for growth as the market progresses.

The current phase reflects a consolidation period rather than a terminal decline, indicating that Bitcoin’s price dynamics are subject to fluctuations as demand trends shift. Investors should be aware that while short-term pressure is evident, the potential for a significant rebound exists if demand conditions improve as anticipated. As the market continues to evolve, keeping an eye on these demand metrics will be crucial for understanding Bitcoin’s future trajectory.

BTC Technical Details 

Bitcoin is currently trading at $54,404, maintaining a critical support level that is keeping its price within a reasonable accumulation pattern. This level is crucial for preventing further declines. If BTC fails to hold this support, a deeper correction could be on the horizon.

At present, BTC is trading below the 4-hour 200 moving average (MA), which stands at $59,263. Reclaiming and holding this level as support is essential for shifting market sentiment and reviving bullish momentum. A decisive break above $60,000 would likely spark renewed demand and potentially drive the price higher.

BTC trading below the 4H 200 MA.
BTC trading below the 4H 200 MA. | Source: BTCUSD chart on TradingView

Conversely, if Bitcoin loses its current support and falls below $54,404, it could signal a move towards lower demand zones, with $49,000 emerging as a key target for further testing. This scenario would indicate a bearish shift in the market, necessitating close monitoring of price movements to gauge future trends. The ability to hold above the $54,404 level and reclaim the 200 MA will be critical for determining BTC’s short-term outlook and potential for recovery.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView



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Bitcoin Bull Saylor Hints at Expanding MicroStrategy’s Holdings

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Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy, has hinted at the possibility of additional Bitcoin purchases.

In a November 24 post on X (formerly Twitter), Saylor teased the company’s plans following its successful $3 billion fundraising round on November 22.

MicroStrategy’s $3 Billion Raise Could Fuel New Bitcoin Purchases

The Bitcoin bull mentioned that MicroStrategy’s portfolio tracker, SaylorTracker, “needs more green dots.” These markers symbolize the company’s each Bitcoin acquisition, fueling speculation about another significant purchase.

Saylor’s recent hints echo his previous two Sunday posts, which preceded announcements of large-scale Bitcoin acquisitions. During this period, MicroStrategy added approximately 80,000 BTC to its holdings, worth over $6 billion at the time.

MicroStrategy Bitcoin Holdings
MicroStrategy Bitcoin Holdings. Source: SaylorTracker

Meanwhile, the recent $3 billion funding — raised through the issuance of convertible debt — could be instrumental in financing these new acquisitions. The convertible notes, sold privately to institutional investors under US securities laws, will mature on December 1, 2029. These notes carry a 55% premium and an implied strike price of $672 per share of MicroStrategy’s Class A common stock.

Market observers noted that this fundraiser aligns with MicroStrategy’s ambitious “21/21” initiative, which aims to raise $42 billion over three years through a mix of equity and fixed-income instruments.

The company remains the largest Bitcoin-holding public entity, with 331,200 BTC valued at over $32.7 billion. According to Saylor, MicroStrategy’s treasury operations have delivered a year-to-date Bitcoin yield of 41.8%, generating a net benefit of around 79,130 BTC, or roughly 246 BTC daily, without the operational costs associated with mining.

Additionally, this strategy has also bolstered MicroStrategy’s stock performance. MSTR shares have surged over 515% since the start of the year, making it one of the most actively traded stocks in the US.

Saylor emphasized that MicroStrategy’s operations are driven by its Bitcoin holdings, which are optimized through strategic financial tools like ATM offerings, enabling the company to reduce risk and volatility while enhancing shareholder value.

“MicroStrategy is powered by its Bitcoin treasury operations. We sell volatility through our ATM offerings, strip BTC risk, volatility, and performance from our fixed-income securities, and transfer that performance to our MSTR equity holders,” he stated.

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$100K Bitcoin Is Only The Beginning, VanEck Targets $180K

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Recent gains in Bitcoin are owed in part to changes in the political environment, particularly in the US. Incoming US President Donald Trump is backing cryptocurrencies, sparking renewed market optimism among investors.

From reforms in regulatory structures to a proposal for a national Bitcoin reserve, the policies he enforces provide Bitcoin an exceptional outlet for growth in an increasingly open and friendly new landscape. These changes places the US in a strategic position as the world’s leader in crypto innovation while giving a fertile ground for Bitcoin to continue growing.

BTCUSD is currently trading at $97,377. Chart: TradingView

Crypto On The Rise

These possible changes have been well taken by market participants, who have seen the highest market dominance of BTC at 59%. A bill being worked out may permit state-chartered banks to mint stablecoins without seeking prior approval from the Federal Reserve, putting the US in a very commanding position in the race to dominate financial innovation. Furthermore, proposals to deregulate the energy industry may favor crypto mining, which will place the US in a better position in the global race for blockchain.

Historic Rally: BTC Approaching $100K

Bitcoin is trading at nearly $99,850 and is on the verge of the long-awaited $100,000 milestone. Similar to other bull runs, including the one witnessed after the elections in 2020, when the price of Bitcoin nearly doubled in a matter of a few months, some believe institutional interest coupled with friendly economic conditions and increased on-chain activity are the drivers of this phenomenal appreciation of the price of Bitcoin.

Source: VanEck

According to VanEck’s latest report, Bitcoin still is in its early stages of the rally, and there is minimal technical resistance in its way. With investor enthusiasm building, growing calls for the alpha coin to be adopted as a strategic reserve, and with a supportive US government, this rally appears well-positioned to continue. Experts are optimistic that Bitcoin is going to push forward and hit new highs.

The Future Of Bitcoin: Cautious Optimism

Analysts, while acknowledging that momentum is strong, point out that the market may run too hot, and early signs in the development are a rise in funding rates and increased unrealized profits. However, even from this stage, long-term prospects appear bright given strong institutional demand, solid on-chain metrics, and supportive regulatory changes, according to the forecast of $180,000 by VanEck for Bitcoin in the current cycle.

While historical data may indicate the crypto asset’s growth is decelerating as the markets mature, the cryptocurrency still shows hopeful prospects in the near term. So far, this rally displays the confidence of investors and has incrementally acquired recognition regarding Bitcoin’s role in a changed financial sector.

Featured image from CNBC, chart from TradingView





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Bitcoin Whales Remain Determined, $3.96 Billion Worth Of BTC Gobbled Up In 96 Hours

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All eyes are on Bitcoin, especially as many traders continue to anticipate a break above the $100,000 mark. This anticipation has cascaded into a spike in activity, especially among Bitcoin whales. Interestingly, Bitcoin whales are making bold statements amidst the anticipation, with on-chain data pointing to an accumulation of over 40,000 BTC in just 96 hours among this holder cohort.

This interesting accumulation coincides with the Bitcoin price reaching a peak of $99,645 in the last 24 hours, adding further momentum to the narrative of a possible historic price milestone.

Examining The Holding Patterns Of Bitcoin Whales

Bitcoin’s recent price dynamics have put the spotlight on Bitcoin whales. Ali Martinez, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, drew attention to the remarkable activity of Bitcoin whales on social media platform X.

While highlighting Santiment data, Martinez revealed that Bitcoin whales have bought over 40,000 BTC worth approximately $3.96 billion in the past 96 hours. Notably, the Bitcoin whales referred to in this metric by Santiment consist of addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. 

Image From X: Ali Martinez

 

This aggressive accumulation comes at a critical juncture for Bitcoin, with prices flirting near the much-anticipated $100,000 mark. Such whale activity typically reduces the available supply of Bitcoin on the open market, which is expected to keep pushing up the Bitcoin price.

Despite the increase in whale accumulation, on-chain data from Glassnode suggests that long-term holders have upped their profit-taking in tandem. Particularly, over 128,000 BTC has been sold by long-term holders since early October.

However, this long-term holder profit taking has so far been offset by the demand from US Spot Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs have acted as a counterbalance, absorbing nearly 90% of the Bitcoin sold by long-term holders.

Image From X: Glassnode

 

A possible explanation is that long-term holders are exiting their self-custody of Bitcoin and are instead diverting their holdings into Spot Bitcoin ETFs in order to benefit from their regulatory clarity. According to data from SoSoValue, Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US witnessed consecutive days of inflows throughout last week to bring the total inflow to $3.38 billion, which is the largest weekly inflow since their launch in January 2024. 

Bitcoin is currently trading at $97,493. Chart: TradingView

What’s Next For Bitcoin Price?

Looking ahead, the Bitcoin price is definitely on its way to break above $100,000 in the next few days. However, it remains to be seen what happens after that. Crypto analyst Tony Severino has speculated that the Bitcoin price peak could double within a timeframe of two weeks to two months following the break above $100,000.This prediction is based off of the Bitcoin price performance after it first broke above the $10,000 price level in 2017. 

On the other hand, veteran analyst Peter Brandt suggests there could be some sort of selling pressure among bulls once the Bitcoin price breaks above $100,000. 

“What I had in mind here is the possibility that bulls will sell their BTC sub $100,00 thinking they will buy a correction that does not come, then turn bearish if Bitcoin goes to $120,000 believing price must come down,” he said.

Nevertheless, the current crypto market landscape is set in place for a continued Bitcoin price increase in the next few weeks and months.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView



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