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Why Is Ethereum (ETH) Losing Ground To Bitcoin? Key Report Explains ETH Struggles

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

Ethereum (ETH) is currently facing significant selling pressure and fear after a 23% decline, bringing its price down to yearly lows at $2,200. One major concern for investors is the ongoing underperformance of ETH compared to Bitcoin, a trend that has persisted since September 2022. Since then, Ethereum has fallen 44% against Bitcoin.

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This dramatic drop has left investors and traders questioning the reasons behind Ethereum’s struggle. A recent report from CryptoQuant offers some clarity, pointing to several factors that may be affecting ETH performance. As market participants continue to monitor ETH’s movements, many are left wondering whether the asset can regain momentum or if further downside is to be expected in the coming weeks.

Ethereum Exposed: CryptoQuant Report Sheds Light

The recent report from CryptoQuant offers clarity on factors currently affecting Ethereum (ETH). Declining on-chain activity, shrinking institutional interest, and the underwhelming performance of Ethereum ETFs compared to Bitcoin are among the key contributors to Ethereum’s struggles, with the ETH/BTC pair now sitting at 0.0425, its lowest level since April 2021.

ETH/BTC Price at the lowest level since April 2021. | Source: ETH/BTC Price Chart by CryptoQuant
ETH/BTC Price at the lowest level since April 2021. | Source: ETH/BTC Price Chart by CryptoQuant

Ethereum’s underperformance seems to be tied to weaker network activity dynamics compared to Bitcoin. For instance, Ethereum’s total transaction fees have continued to decline, mostly attributed to the lower fees after the Dencun upgrade. The relative transaction count has also fallen dramatically, dropping from a record high of 27 in June 2021 to 11, one of the lowest levels since July 2020.

Moreover, Ethereum’s supply dynamics are not supportive of a price increase. Since early April, the total supply of ETH has steadily grown following the Dencun upgrade. The current supply is at 120.323 million ETH, the highest level since May 2023. 

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Additionally, traders and investors have shown a clear preference for Bitcoin over Ethereum, as the relative spot trading volume of ETH to Bitcoin has dropped from 1.6 to 0.76 in the past week. Ethereum’s price has historically risen relative to Bitcoin when its trading volume outperforms Bitcoin’s.

Given these factors, Ethereum may continue to underperform compared to Bitcoin in the near future.

ETH Price Action

Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at $2,262 after a significant 23% drop from its local highs. Volatility and uncertainty continue to drive the market as ETH tests local demand near its yearly lows of around $2,200.

ETH trading below the 4H 200 MA.
ETH trading below the 4H 200 MA. | Source: ETHUSD chart on TradingView

The cryptocurrency remains far below its 4-hour 200 moving average (MA) at $2,565, a critical indicator that typically signals market strength. For bulls to regain control, it is essential for the price to break above this moving average and challenge the local highs at $2,600.

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However, if Ethereum fails to hold support at its yearly low of $2,200, the price will likely enter a deeper correction phase, potentially signaling the start of a bear market. This level is crucial for ETH’s short-term recovery, as losing it could trigger further selling pressure. Bulls need to retake these key levels to prevent ETH from slipping into prolonged bearish territory.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView



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Ethereum

Ethereum Sees Neutral Netflow On Binance: What Does This Signal?

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Meet Samuel Edyme, Nickname – HIM-buktu. A web3 content writer, journalist, and aspiring trader, Edyme is as versatile as they come. With a knack for words and a nose for trends, he has penned pieces for numerous industry player, including AMBCrypto, Blockchain.News, and Blockchain Reporter, among others.

Edyme’s foray into the crypto universe is nothing short of cinematic. His journey began not with a triumphant investment, but with a scam. Yes, a Ponzi scheme that used crypto as payment roped him in. Rather than retreating, he emerged wiser and more determined, channeling his experience into over three years of insightful market analysis.

Before becoming the voice of reason in the crypto space, Edyme was the quintessential crypto degen. He aped into anything that promised a quick buck, anything ape-able, learning the ropes the hard way. These hands-on experience through major market events—like the Terra Luna crash, the wave of bankruptcies in crypto firms, the notorious FTX collapse, and even CZ’s arrest—has honed his keen sense of market dynamics.

When he isn’t crafting engaging crypto content, you’ll find Edyme backtesting charts, studying both forex and synthetic indices. His dedication to mastering the art of trading is as relentless as his pursuit of the next big story. Away from his screens, he can be found in the gym, airpods in, working out and listening to his favorite artist, NF. Or maybe he’s catching some Z’s or scrolling through Elon Musk’s very own X platform—(oops, another screen activity, my bad…)

Well, being an introvert, Edyme thrives in the digital realm, preferring online interaction over offline encounters—(don’t judge, that’s just how he is built). His determination is quite unwavering to be honest, and he embodies the philosophy of continuous improvement, or “kaizen,” striving to be 1% better every day. His mantras, “God knows best” and “Everything is still on track,” reflect his resilient outlook and how he lives his life.

In a nutshell, Samuel Edyme was born efficient, driven by ambition, and perhaps a touch fierce. He’s neither artistic nor unrealistic, and certainly not chauvinistic. Think of him as Bruce Willis in a train wreck—unflappable. Edyme is like trading in your car for a jet—bold. He’s the guy who’d ask his boss for a pay cut just to prove a point—(uhhh…). He is like watching your kid take his first steps. Imagine Bill Gates struggling with rent—okay, maybe that’s a stretch, but you get the idea, yeah. Unbelievable? Yes. Inconceivable? Perhaps.

Edyme sees himself as a fairly reasonable guy, albeit a bit stubborn. Normal to you is not to him. He is not the one to take the easy road, and why would he? That’s just not the way he roll. He has these favorite lyrics from NF’s “Clouds” that resonate deeply with him: “What you think’s probably unfeasible, I’ve done already a hundredfold.”

PS—Edyme is HIM. HIM-buktu. Him-mulation. Him-Kardashian. Himon and Pumba. He even had his DNA tested, and guess what? He’s 100% Him-alayan. Screw it, he ate the opp.



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Analyst Reveals When The Ethereum Price Will Reach A New ATH, It’s Closer Than You Think

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

The Ethereum price has been consolidating for about a week since it hit a four-month high at $3,420. As the second largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum has the biggest price correlation with Bitcoin. However, you could argue the Ethereum price has been largely left behind in terms of performance throughout the ongoing bull cycle. Interestingly, a crypto analyst, Ben Lilly, has shared a bold prediction about the trajectory of the Ethereum price. 

Taking to a post on the social media platform X, Ben Lilly forecasted that the Ethereum price will reach a new all-time high (ATH) between December 21, 2024, and January 7, 2025. The prediction stems from his analysis of the previous performance of the ETH price movements during Bitcoin’s ATH discovery phase in 2021.

A Historical Parallel: Ethereum’s 2021 Rally

In his analysis, Ben Lilly referenced Ethereum’s price behavior during the historic rally of the Bitcoin price in the 2021 bull run. At the time, the Ethereum price was trading nearly 60% below its 2018 peak. After Bitcoin broke out to fresh ATH levels, it took Ethereum five weeks to follow suit, rallying by about 640% to reach its current ATH of $4,878.

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Lilly believes the present market conditions mirror those of 2021, with the Bitcoin price recently entering price discovery mode. Ethereum, which was approximately 50% below its 2021 peak of $4,418 as of November 2024, has started to rebound, showing over 20% gains within just two weeks from a low of $2,366 on November 4.

Interestingly, the analyst’s comments suggest that as the Bitcoin price continues to set new price records this bull run, Ethereum is likely to follow with a substantial price leap very soon. The timeframe for this substantial price leap, he projects, aligns closely with late December 2024 and early January 2025.

Based on his projections, the analyst asserts that Ethereum could repeat its historical pattern and rally significantly within a short timeframe. He highlights that a 300% surge from Ethereum’s November 4 low price level could push it toward the $10,000 mark. 

Current State Of The Ethereum Price

Ben Lilly’s Ethereum price prediction highlights the importance of the Bitcoin price momentum to that of the second-largest asset. Particularly, the 2021 pattern he pointed to is a result of an altcoin season where the altcoin market (led by Ethereum) started to outperform the Bitcoin price.

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As it stands, an altcoin season has yet to materialize this cycle, and all the interest is going into Bitcoin. The Bitcoin price is currently on an all-time high roll, meaning the market will have to continue to wait for the interest to roll into Ethereum.

At the time of writing, the ETH price is trading at $3,107 and is down by 3.84% in the past seven days.

Ethereum price chart from Tradingview.com
ETH price begins recovery trend | Source: ETHUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com





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Ethereum A Ticking Bomb? Derivatives Metrics Break Records

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Data shows the Ethereum derivatives-related metrics have shot up recently, a sign that the price is at risk of going through a volatile storm.

Ethereum Open Interest & Leverage Ratio Have Both Spiked Recently

In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed about the trend in the derivatives indicators of Ethereum. The metrics in question are the Open Interest and the Estimated Leverage Ratio.

First, the Open Interest keeps track of the total amount of ETH-related contracts that are currently open on all derivatives platforms. The metric naturally takes into account for both long and short positions.

When the value of this metric rises, it means the investors are opening up fresh positions on the market. Such a trend suggests derivatives trading interest in the coin is going up.

On the other hand, the indicator registering a drawdown implies positions in the market are going down. This could be because of investors willfully closing them up, or due to exchanges forcibly liquidating them.

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Ethereum Open Interest over the last few years:

Ethereum Open Interest

The value of the metric appears to have been shooting up in recent days | Source: CryptoQuant

The above graph shows that the Ethereum Open Interest has witnessed rapid growth recently. It has surpassed the previous all-time high (ATH) to set a new record above $13 billion.

When considering the timeframe of the past four months, the indicator has increased by over 40%, which suggests an explosion in speculative interest around the cryptocurrency has occurred.

This development, however, may not be the healthiest, as the trend in the second indicator of relevance, the Estimated Leverage Ratio, would suggest. This metric measures the ratio between the Open Interest and the Derivatives Exchange Reserve.

The Derivatives Exchange Reserve is naturally just the total amount of the cryptocurrency sitting in wallets associated with all centralized derivatives exchanges.

The Estimated Leverage Ratio tells us the amount of leverage or loan that the average derivatives user in the Ethereum market is currently opting for.

Below is a chart for this indicator.

Ethereum Estimated Leverage Ratio

Looks like the value of the metric has been heading up over the last few weeks | Source: CryptoQuant

From the graph, it’s apparent that the Ethereum Estimated Leverage Ratio has shot up recently. This would mean that the increase in the Open Interest has been more rapid than the rise in the Derivatives Exchange Reserve.

The investors are now sitting on all-time high (ATH) leverage, which can be a bad sign for ETH as it implies any volatility in the future could take down the overleveraged positions and induce a mass liquidation event called a squeeze.

The quant has pointed out that the Ethereum Funding Rate, a ratio between long and short positions, is positive right now, which suggests that if a squeeze is to happen shortly, it’s more likely to involve the bullish side of the market.

ETH Price

At the time of writing, Ethereum is floating around $3,000, down almost 7% over the past week.

Ethereum Price Chart

The price of the coin seems to have been consolidating sideways recently | Source: ETHUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com



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