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Is Bitcoin (BTC) Price Set for a Year-End Rally in 2024?

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has experienced varying levels of return for each quarter of the last five years. However, one thing synonymous with these periods is how the coin produces a positive return between October and December.

With September approaching, BTC could be close to another season where the price might go on a parabolic rally. Will it be the same this time?

What History Says About Bitcoin Performance in Q4

Historically, Bitcoin’s price tends to underperform in the third quarter (Q3). However, according to a chart shared by analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin has seen an average increase of 26% every fourth quarter (Q4) since 2019.

For example, in October 2023, BTC traded around $26,000. By December, it had surged to $44,000. In contrast, Bitcoin didn’t achieve such gains in 2022 due to the FTX contagion, which pushed the market into a bear phase.

In 2021, Bitcoin rose from $40,000 to $69,000 between September and November, before experiencing a slight decline in December. A similar pattern occurred in 2020 when BTC’s price doubled during Q4.

Read more: What Is Bitcoin? A Guide to the Original Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin Historical Performance.
Bitcoin Historical Performance. Source: Axel Adler via X

If this pattern holds true, Bitcoin’s price could be poised for a significant increase once September ends. To gauge this potential, it’s crucial to evaluate the current market conditions surrounding the coin.

BeInCrypto specifically examines the Realized Price, which represents the average price the entire market paid for Bitcoin. Historically, this metric has served as an on-chain support or resistance level for BTC.

At press time, Bitcoin’s Realized Price is $31,400. This value appears to be providing support for the cryptocurrency, as indicated by the CryptoQuant chart below. For the Realized Price to act as resistance, it would need to align with or exceed Bitcoin’s current market value.

Bitcoin Realized Price.
Bitcoin Realized Price. Source: CryptoQuant

When this happens, the value tends to decrease afterward. Therefore, the current value of the metric suggests that Bitcoin still has a good upside potential. Hence, a significant price increase could be likely by Q4 and before the end of this year.

BTC Price Prediction: The Coin Hints at a 24% Gain, But First…

As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $59,551, down from $64,452. Notably, this price is hovering around the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a key technical indicator that measures trend direction. The 200 EMA (blue) offers insights into the long-term trend.

When the 200 EMA rises above Bitcoin’s price, it often stalls the uptrend or pulls it down. Conversely, when the 200 EMA is below the price, it creates room for Bitcoin to grow. Currently, if BTC fails to climb above this indicator, its price could drop to $57,818 or potentially as low as $54,474.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks the flow of liquidity into a cryptocurrency, also supports the possibility of a decline. The CMF reading has dropped, signaling a decrease in buying pressure.

Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Bitcoin Daily Analysis.
Bitcoin Daily Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, if past performance is any indication, BTC could rise by 24% in the early months of Q4, pushing the coin’s price to $71,974. On the other hand, if the broader market experiences a significant decline in capital inflow, this prediction could be invalidated, potentially causing Bitcoin’s price to fall to $49,068.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Is Cardano Price Set to Break $0.47?

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Cardano (ADA) has seen a 5% increase in price over the past 24 hours. This reflects the general cryptocurrency market’s positive trajectory since the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday.

This surge is also fueled partly by the actions of ADA short-term holders, who appear to be holding onto their coins. Over the past 30 days, their reluctance to sell has positioned the altcoin to potentially break through the resistance level at $0.47.

Cardano Short-Term Holders Remain Resolute

According to IntoTheBlock, the number of ADA short-term holders who have held the coins for less than 30 days has increased over the past month. Often referred to as “paper hands,” these holders tend to sell their coins at the slightest sign of trouble. 

However, they have adopted a more bullish approach over the past month. Their decision to refrain from selling reflects a gradual shift in market sentiment toward ADA.

Read more: How To Stake Cardano (ADA)

cardano addresses by time held
Cardano Addresses by Time Held. Source: IntoTheBlock

ADA’s attempt to rally above its Ichimoku Cloud on a one-day chart supports this outlook. As of this writing, the altcoin is poised to breach the Leading Span A of its Ichimoku Cloud indicator, which tracks its price trends, support and resistance levels, and potential market reversal points.

The Leading Span A has served as a resistance level where Cardano’s price has encountered significant selling pressure over the past few months. A successful breach of this level would confirm that bullish momentum is strengthening in the ADA market, signal increased buying interest, and hint at the potential for a further uptrend.

cardano ichimoku cloud
Cardano Ichimoku Cloud. Source: TradingView

ADA Price Prediction: $0.47 Is Likely Only If This Happens

Cardano’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is climbing, signaling increasing demand for the altcoin. Currently at 51.52, the RSI shows that buying pressure is building.

If ADA breaks through Leading Span A, it could rally toward Leading Span B, a stronger resistance level. Successfully surpassing this would position Cardano for a potential 31% gain, targeting a price of $0.47.

Read more: 6 Best Cardano (ADA) Wallets You Should Consider in September 2024

cardano price prediction
Cardano Daily Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, if demand slows and ADA fails to break Leading Span A, its price could drop to around $0.27.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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$1.6 Billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expire After Fed Cut

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The crypto market is bracing for heightened volatility as nearly $1.6 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options expire today.

This event coincides with the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps).

Fed’s Decision Fuels the Crypto Market Rally Ahead of Major Options Expiry

According to data from Deribit, 20,037 Bitcoin options contracts worth approximately $1.26 billion will expire on September 20. These contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.85 and a maximum pain point of $58,500.

Expiring Bitcoin Options.
Expiring Bitcoin Options. Source: Deribit

Similarly, Ethereum’s options market is set to expire with 125,046 contracts worth $308.16 million. Today’s expiring Ethereum contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.65, with a maximum pain point of $2,350.

Read more: An Introduction to Crypto Options Trading

Expiring Ethereum Options.
Expiring Ethereum Options. Source: Deribit

In options trading, the maximum pain point refers to the price level at which option holders would suffer the largest losses. It is essentially the price at which the highest number of options (both calls and puts) would expire worthless, inflicting maximum financial “pain” on traders. On the other hand, the put-to-call ratio gauges market sentiment by comparing the number of put options (bets on price declines) to call options (bets on price increases).

Greeks. live’s recent analysis outlined the impact of the Fed’s decision to cut rates for today’s expiring crypto options contracts. The analysts noted that the Fed’s move was largely expected and aligned with macroeconomic forecasts.

“Implied volatility declined significantly across all major maturities, with ultra-short-term IVs falling by over 25%, as short-term short-selling expectations by large investors fell short,” they wrote.

Looking ahead, Greeks.live also noted that there will be another interest rate meeting on November 8 and December 19 this year, where the market expects a cumulative 100 bps rate cut. The next rate cut could coincide with the US election, increasing the likelihood of heightened market volatility.

BeInCrypto reported that this week’s rate cut has positively impacted the crypto market. Following the decision, Bitcoin surged from the $59,000 level to surpass the $63,500 mark.

Similarly, Ethereum also experienced a significant increase during the period. Data showed that ETH skyrocketed from $2,293 to as high as $2,482.

However, both assets have now stabilized. At the time of writing, Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading at $62,890 and $2,450, respectively.

Read more: 9 Best Crypto Options Trading Platforms

Despite the positive momentum, traders are advised to remain cautious. Historically, options expiration often leads to short-term instability in the market. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin and Ethereum can sustain their upward trends or if a period of correction is imminent.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Crypto Pundit Predicts Historical 9,468% Pump To $27

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

A new XRP price prediction by popular crypto pundit Egrag Crypto projects that the cryptocurrency could experience a historical price surge of about 9,468%. This predicted price gain would push XRP from its current price of $0.58 to $27, marking new All-Time Highs (ATHs).  

XRP Price Forecasted To Pump To These Targets

Egrag Crypto has taken to X (formerly Twitter) to express his bullish outlook on XRP, predicting the cryptocurrency could surge as high as $27. On Wednesday, September 18, the crypto analyst shared a price chart illustrating a speculative breakdown of potential price movements for XRP using five distinctive color indicators to represent various price increase scenarios. 

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XRP price
Source: X

Each of these scenarios has been carefully analyzed, grounded on historical price trends and past price pumps. Additionally, the color indicators — white, yellow, red, blue, and green, are all arranged respectively to represent the ascending price potential of XRP. 

The white color indicator predicts that XRP is set to witness a 932% pump from the analyst’s predicted cycle low of $0.28. While this scenario is relatively conservative compared to other projections, if XRP can achieve the predicted pump, its price could surge to $3, nearing current all-time highs. 

The yellow color indicator foresees XRP increasing by 1,538%, potentially driving its price to fresh all-time highs of $4.85. While this target is much higher than the white scenario, it is still within the realm of possibility if the cryptocurrency maintains a positive momentum.

The red indicator projects that XRP’s price will jump to $6.22, marking a 2,035% increase. This massive surge would signal a strong bull run for the cryptocurrency, likely reflecting the influence of major external factors such as mass adoption and more legal clarity

In the blue color scenario, XRP is set to reach a higher price of $7.68, representing a whopping 2,536% increase. At this price, XRP would likely be seen as a major player in the market with potential long-term viability. 

Finally, the green color indicator predicts that XRP could witness a 9,468% price surge, potentially driving the cryptocurrency to a staggering $27. Although this ambitious prediction would be a historic achievement, it remains a far-fetched possibility with XRP’s current market dynamics

XRP Community Express Skepticism

While Egrag Crypto’s bullish projections for XRP raise the hopes of investors who have been HODLing the coin for years now despite its low value and persistent consolidation phase, many have also expressed doubts. A few crypto members criticized the analyst, calling him out for his overly bullish forecasts for XRP. 

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Other members found the ambitious price predictions humorous, declaring that XRP is a “shit coin” and would remain so for a long period. Additionally, one crypto member underscored XRP’s long-term stagnant growth, highlighting that he had bought $1,000 worth of the cryptocurrency early last year but only accrued a profit of $100. 

XRP price chart from Tradingview.com
XRP shows a lot of volatility | Source: XRPUSDT on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com



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