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Five Charts Explain the Decline

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As Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to reclaim the $60,000 psychological level, the on-chain data provider CryptoQuant has highlighted five key charts that illustrate the recent price drop.

The crypto markets are in turmoil, leaving traders on edge as Bitcoin’s price sends mixed signals. Analysts are divided on whether the market is heading for a correction or set to continue its uptrend.

Five Charts to Explain the Latest Bitcoin Price Drop

Bitcoin has slipped below the critical $60,000 psychological level, extending its decline after a recent surge above $65,000. A closer look at the underlying fundamentals reveals intriguing dynamics as traders and investors navigate the market conditions.

Short-term Holders Cash in at Break-Even

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin short-term holders established a resistance wall at their break-even price, indicating they took profits. The break-even price is where traders neither gain nor lose, with the asset trading near their purchase price.

This strategic profit-taking followed Bitcoin’s earlier price drop, which had caused short-term holders to incur a 17% loss. When the price rebounded to their average cost basis, these holders sold around their break-even prices. The resulting selling pressure contributed to the latest price drop.

Bitcoin price correction as short-term holders sell at break-even, Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin Price Correction as Short-Term Holders Sell. Source: CryptoQuant

Increased Open Interest and Positive Funding Rates

CryptoQuant also reports a premium on Bitcoin perpetual contracts, with open interest rising by 31% since August 5, moving from $13.5 billion to $17.9 billion. Open interest represents the total number of open positions, reflecting futures traders’ predictions about the next market move.

In a liquid market, high open interest typically results in better execution prices, tighter bid-ask spreads, and reduced slippage, providing traders with enhanced market efficiency and easier entry and exit opportunities. The 31% increase in open interest suggests growing market participation and heightened interest in Bitcoin.

Read more: Where To Trade Bitcoin Futures: A Comprehensive Guide

Open Interest, Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin Open Interest. Source: CryptoQuant

At the same time, funding rates remained positive, indicating that long positions (buyers) were paying short positions (sellers) to maintain their positions. This scenario reflects market conditions where demand exceeds supply.

Funding Rates, Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin Funding Rates. Source: CryptoQuant

The combination of rising open interest and positive funding rates can destabilize traders’ positions, primarily due to increased speculative activity. As more participants enter and exit positions in an attempt to capitalize on potential price movements, volatility escalates, causing sudden shifts in market sentiment.

This dynamic can create a feedback loop, where growing market participation fuels further price movements. As a result, herd behavior and momentum trading amplify market trends, making it increasingly difficult to predict and manage risks effectively.

Increased Spot Inflows

Research indicates that increased Bitcoin inflows into spot exchanges during the price drop further contributed to the decline, as traders viewed it as a sign of impending selling pressure. When investors transfer their holdings to exchanges, it is often seen as an intent to sell.

This influx added strain to already fragile futures positions. According to CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, Julio Moreno, these inflows were attributed to large holders, amplifying the pressure on the market.

Read more: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2024/2025/2030

Exchange Inflow, Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin Exchange Inflows. Source: CryptoQuant

As shown in the chart above, the rise in spot exchange inflows coincided with price drops, reinforcing the thesis.

This increase in Bitcoin supply available for trading on exchanges means more sellers are offering their BTC for sale. When supply outpaces demand from buyers, it exerts downward pressure on the price, contributing to the decline.

Shaking Off Weak Hands

The series of events has led to “weak hands” exiting their positions, resulting in increased liquidations. Ethereum and Bitcoin longs were liquidated for $55 million and $90 million, respectively, marking the highest levels of liquidation since August 5, according to research.

Bitcoin Long Liquidations, Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin Long Liquidations. Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant’s research suggests that the market will need time to stabilize before a clear directional bias can emerge. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $59,118, down nearly 5% since the Wednesday session began, according to BeInCrypto data.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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Bitcoin Price Pushes Higher As The Bulls Set Sights on $65K

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Este artículo también está disponible en español.

Bitcoin price gained pace above the $61,500 resistance. BTC even cleared the $63,300 level and is now consolidating gains above $62,500.

  • Bitcoin is gaining pace above the $62,200 resistance zone.
  • The price is trading above $62,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
  • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at $61,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair could extend gains if it stays above the $61,500 support zone.

Bitcoin Price Extend Gains Above $63,000

Bitcoin price extended its increase above the $60,500 level. BTC was able to clear the $61,200 and $61,500 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

The bulls pumped the price above $62,500 and $63,000 levels. A high was formed at $63,840 and the price is now consolidating gains. There was a move below the $63,500 level. The price dipped and tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $59,165 swing low to the $63,840 high.

Bitcoin is now trading above $62,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support at $61,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin Price
Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

On the upside, the price could face resistance near the $63,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $63,800 level. A clear move above the $68,400 resistance might send the price higher. The next key resistance could be $64,500. A close above the $64,500 resistance might spark more upsides. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $65,000 resistance.

Are Dips Limited In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $63,500 resistance zone, it could start a downside correction. Immediate support on the downside is near the $62,700 level.

The first major support is $61,500 and the trend line. The next support is now near the $61,000 zone or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $59,165 swing low to the $63,840 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $60,500 support in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $62,700, followed by $61,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $63,500, and $63,800.



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Is Cardano Price Set to Break $0.47?

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Cardano (ADA) has seen a 5% increase in price over the past 24 hours. This reflects the general cryptocurrency market’s positive trajectory since the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday.

This surge is also fueled partly by the actions of ADA short-term holders, who appear to be holding onto their coins. Over the past 30 days, their reluctance to sell has positioned the altcoin to potentially break through the resistance level at $0.47.

Cardano Short-Term Holders Remain Resolute

According to IntoTheBlock, the number of ADA short-term holders who have held the coins for less than 30 days has increased over the past month. Often referred to as “paper hands,” these holders tend to sell their coins at the slightest sign of trouble. 

However, they have adopted a more bullish approach over the past month. Their decision to refrain from selling reflects a gradual shift in market sentiment toward ADA.

Read more: How To Stake Cardano (ADA)

cardano addresses by time held
Cardano Addresses by Time Held. Source: IntoTheBlock

ADA’s attempt to rally above its Ichimoku Cloud on a one-day chart supports this outlook. As of this writing, the altcoin is poised to breach the Leading Span A of its Ichimoku Cloud indicator, which tracks its price trends, support and resistance levels, and potential market reversal points.

The Leading Span A has served as a resistance level where Cardano’s price has encountered significant selling pressure over the past few months. A successful breach of this level would confirm that bullish momentum is strengthening in the ADA market, signal increased buying interest, and hint at the potential for a further uptrend.

cardano ichimoku cloud
Cardano Ichimoku Cloud. Source: TradingView

ADA Price Prediction: $0.47 Is Likely Only If This Happens

Cardano’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is climbing, signaling increasing demand for the altcoin. Currently at 51.52, the RSI shows that buying pressure is building.

If ADA breaks through Leading Span A, it could rally toward Leading Span B, a stronger resistance level. Successfully surpassing this would position Cardano for a potential 31% gain, targeting a price of $0.47.

Read more: 6 Best Cardano (ADA) Wallets You Should Consider in September 2024

cardano price prediction
Cardano Daily Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, if demand slows and ADA fails to break Leading Span A, its price could drop to around $0.27.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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$1.6 Billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expire After Fed Cut

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The crypto market is bracing for heightened volatility as nearly $1.6 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options expire today.

This event coincides with the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points (bps).

Fed’s Decision Fuels the Crypto Market Rally Ahead of Major Options Expiry

According to data from Deribit, 20,037 Bitcoin options contracts worth approximately $1.26 billion will expire on September 20. These contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.85 and a maximum pain point of $58,500.

Expiring Bitcoin Options.
Expiring Bitcoin Options. Source: Deribit

Similarly, Ethereum’s options market is set to expire with 125,046 contracts worth $308.16 million. Today’s expiring Ethereum contracts have a put-to-call ratio of 0.65, with a maximum pain point of $2,350.

Read more: An Introduction to Crypto Options Trading

Expiring Ethereum Options.
Expiring Ethereum Options. Source: Deribit

In options trading, the maximum pain point refers to the price level at which option holders would suffer the largest losses. It is essentially the price at which the highest number of options (both calls and puts) would expire worthless, inflicting maximum financial “pain” on traders. On the other hand, the put-to-call ratio gauges market sentiment by comparing the number of put options (bets on price declines) to call options (bets on price increases).

Greeks. live’s recent analysis outlined the impact of the Fed’s decision to cut rates for today’s expiring crypto options contracts. The analysts noted that the Fed’s move was largely expected and aligned with macroeconomic forecasts.

“Implied volatility declined significantly across all major maturities, with ultra-short-term IVs falling by over 25%, as short-term short-selling expectations by large investors fell short,” they wrote.

Looking ahead, Greeks.live also noted that there will be another interest rate meeting on November 8 and December 19 this year, where the market expects a cumulative 100 bps rate cut. The next rate cut could coincide with the US election, increasing the likelihood of heightened market volatility.

BeInCrypto reported that this week’s rate cut has positively impacted the crypto market. Following the decision, Bitcoin surged from the $59,000 level to surpass the $63,500 mark.

Similarly, Ethereum also experienced a significant increase during the period. Data showed that ETH skyrocketed from $2,293 to as high as $2,482.

However, both assets have now stabilized. At the time of writing, Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading at $62,890 and $2,450, respectively.

Read more: 9 Best Crypto Options Trading Platforms

Despite the positive momentum, traders are advised to remain cautious. Historically, options expiration often leads to short-term instability in the market. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin and Ethereum can sustain their upward trends or if a period of correction is imminent.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and ConditionsPrivacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.



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