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Why US Economic Events This Week Matter for Bitcoin Prices

Published

4 weeks ago

August 26, 2024

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Cryptocurrency traders and investors are closely monitoring key events on this week’s US economic calendar. As Bitcoin (BTC) maintains a price above $64,000, these events could trigger significant market fluctuations.

The crypto market, largely driven by retail investors, remains susceptible to economic pressures and regulatory uncertainties. With these factors at play, traders are eager to see how the week unfolds.

Key US Economic Events This Week

Bitcoin is eyeing further gains, supported by the Federal Reserve’s recent dovish tone. This week’s US economic events could heavily influence retail sentiment, potentially setting the stage for the next price movement in crypto markets. Several key items on the economic calendar hold the potential to impact Bitcoin and broader crypto prices, making them critical for traders to watch.

Consumer Confidence Index

The Conference Board is set to release the US Consumer Confidence Index on August 27, the last Tuesday of the month. This index offers insights into spending trends by reflecting consumer attitudes, buying plans, and vacation intentions.

High consumer confidence typically correlates with increased spending, potentially boosting economic activity. Such optimism might lead to greater investments in assets like Bitcoin. On the flip side, low consumer confidence, signaling reduced spending, could prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a dovish stance, leading to more liquidity in the financial system.

In this scenario, Bitcoin could benefit as investors turn to it as an alternative store of value and inflation hedge. Given this backdrop, Tuesday’s data will be pivotal for crypto markets, offering a snapshot of consumer sentiment regarding the economy. The current forecast stands at 100.5, a slight increase from 100.3.

Initial Jobless Claims

Crypto markets are also closely watching Thursday’s initial jobless claims report, which will offer fresh insights into the US labor market’s health. Recently, the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims has edged higher, signaling a gradual cooling of the labor market — a factor that has encouraged the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts.

The last reported figure was 232,000, with a middle projection of 234,000 for the upcoming data. According to the Labor Department, initial jobless claims increased by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 232,000 for the week ending August 17, while economists expected 230,000.

A higher-than-anticipated rise in jobless claims could point to economic instability, driving investors toward Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional markets. Conversely, a drop in claims may boost confidence in traditional assets, potentially diverting capital away from cryptocurrencies. With the Fed closely monitoring labor conditions, these numbers will be key for both traditional and crypto investors alike.

GDP

This week’s second revision of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, scheduled for Thursday, is a critical release for the markets. GDP measures the overall economic output and health of a country by calculating the total value of goods and services produced.

A positive revision would signal robust economic growth, potentially driving investors to riskier assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, a downward adjustment could dampen sentiment, leading to a pullback in crypto prices as investors grow cautious.

In the previous report, GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in Q2, surpassing the 1.4% pace recorded in Q1. This steady growth has helped ease recession fears, suggesting resilience in the broader economy. If confirmed by Thursday’s data, investor optimism could spill over into the crypto market, reinforcing Bitcoin’s appeal as a high-reward asset.

Personal Income and PCE Index

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is set to release personal income, spending, the PCE index, and core PCE data on Friday. These figures will provide crucial insights into inflation and consumer behavior, directly influencing the Federal Reserve’s next moves.

Weaker personal income and spending data, paired with softer inflation, could pave the way for a 50-basis-point rate cut in September. Such a dovish approach from the Fed could boost demand for riskier assets like Bitcoin. However, if spending power drops sharply, recession fears might resurface, potentially dampening Bitcoin demand.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, especially the core PCE excluding food and energy prices, will be a key inflation gauge. A higher-than-expected core PCE reading would indicate persistent inflationary pressures, leading investors to seek alternative assets like Bitcoin, which is often viewed as an inflation hedge. On the flip side, a lower core PCE index could reduce demand for cryptocurrencies as investors turn to more stable investments.

Consumer Sentiment

Markets also brace for the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey release for August on Friday. This data shows the gap between the US economy’s continued strength and how households feel about their personal financial situation.

If the data shows consumers are still struggling with inflation and high interest rates while also worrying more about their jobs, crypto could react in different ways. Notably, consumer sentiment is much more sensitive to inflation, while consumer confidence is more sensitive to the labor market.

Ultimately, the relationship between crypto and US macroeconomics is not always straightforward. The market reacts to data releases in unexpected ways determined by what transpires in the days leading to the data release date. It is worth mentioning that all of the above data will affect the S&P500 Index (SPX) and, therefore, also impact Bitcoin.

US Government Bitcoin Supply Overhang

The US government’s Bitcoin holdings remain a significant concern for the market. According to Arkham Intelligence, the government currently holds around 203,239 BTC. Any large transfer from this inventory could trigger fears of an oversupply, potentially driving Bitcoin’s price below the $60,000 mark.

US Government Bitcoin Supply, as crypto braces for US economic events — US Government Bitcoin Supply, Source: Arkham Intelligence

According to BeInCrypto data, Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,067, reflecting a 0.23% dip since the market opened on Monday. Further developments this week could determine its next directional move.

Disclaimer

In adherence to the Trust Project guidelines, BeInCrypto is committed to unbiased, transparent reporting. This news article aims to provide accurate, timely information. However, readers are advised to verify facts independently and consult with a professional before making any decisions based on this content. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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Market

TradFi To Become Biggest DeFi Customer

Published

32 mins ago

September 19, 2024

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Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov predicts that tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) will soon be more valuable than cryptocurrencies. He points to the increasing involvement of traditional finance in decentralized finance, driven by a growing interest in tokenization.

Nazarov also noted that Chainlink is ready to take advantage of this shift in the blockchain space.

TradFi Interest in Tokenized RWAs To Alter Blockchain

Nazarov anticipates an interconnected world where decentralized finance (DeFi) and TradFi actively transact with each other. Acknowledging the growing interest in tokenized RWAs, he says TradFi would be DeFi’s largest customer.

Speaking at Token2049 in Singapore, Nazarov highlighted DeFi’s ability to generate yield and create reliable markets for RWAs. He urged the industry to prepare for this shift, noting that it’s already happening, driven by asset tokenization. According to Nazarov, blockchain technology is giving TradFi exactly what it needs.

Chainlink co-founder also highlighted how decentralized infrastructures like Chainlink and smart contracts are transforming the digital space by removing the need for traditional counterparty relationships. Instead of relying on human decision-making, automated code ensures outcomes, improving efficiency and reducing risks that traditional finance models often face.

Chainlink co-founder on TradFi, DeFi, and tokenized RWA during Token2049 in Singapore

Nazarov emphasized that this represents a major shift from the current TradFi model, where delays and risks stem from human intervention.

His remarks align with his statements from late August, when he predicted that tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) would surpass crypto in value by 2027, driven by institutional interest and TradFi integration. Currently, the RWA market is growing, with RWA.xyz data showing it is already a $2.22 billion industry.

Tokenized RWA — Tokenized Securities Industry Valuation. Source: RWA.xyz

This development comes as blockchain technology continues to tackle the infrastructure challenges faced by traditional finance, while also opening up new investment opportunities. Blockchain’s ability to streamline workflows and significantly improve settlement times is especially appealing — echoing what Sergey Nazarov explained about the efficiency and certainty that decentralized systems offer.

“TradFi needs all kinds of different data that allow those traditional finance smart contracts to function properly…the Net Asset Value (NAV) data of tokenized funds is an example of a dashboard live on production showing the proof of Reserves of one of the many ETF funds use to prove things about them,” Nazarov said.

Notwithstanding, the road to a complete transition to digital infrastructure is marred with challenges. Among them are legal considerations, identity standards, and data privacy, which would demand careful evaluation with regulatory systems in mind.

Accordingly, TradFi and DeFi players and the broader financial services industry must work to build infrastructures capable of supporting broader tokenization adoption while ensuring security and compliance before Nazarov’s dream can become a reality.

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Vitalik Buterin’s Speech, and More

Published

2 hours ago

September 19, 2024

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The Token2049 conference in Singapore has once again proven to be a key event for the crypto industry, showcasing major advancements and collaborations.

The event covered everything from Ethereum’s growth to new partnerships in sports and AI, highlighting how the industry continues to evolve.

Vitalik Sings Ethereum’s Progress: Fees, Speed, Future

Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin surprised Token2049 attendees by delivering his speech in the form of a concert. Despite the unusual presentation, he shared key updates on Ethereum’s progress.

Buterin highlighted how Layer-2 networks have reduced transaction fees and improved transaction confirmation times to just 5 to 15 seconds.

He also stressed the importance of balancing mainstream adoption with Ethereum’s core values of decentralization and open-source development. Buterin briefly mentioned the ongoing competition with Bitcoin, which currently dominates 58% of the market.

On the second day of Token2049, global crypto exchange Bitget announced a partnership with LaLiga. The collaboration, timed with Bitget’s sixth anniversary, will focus on leveraging blockchain technology alongside LaLiga’s ventures into AI, virtual reality, and the metaverse.

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen highlighted the alliance’s potential to connect with millions of football fans in emerging markets. This follows Bitget’s 2022 partnership with Lionel Messi, reflecting the growing overlap between crypto and sports.

Solana Mobile Unveils ‘Seeker’: Next-Gen Web3 Smartphone

Solana Mobile, a subsidiary of Solana Labs, has unveiled its second-generation Web3 smartphone, called “Seeker”. Previously referred to as “Chapter Two,” Seeker has already secured over 140,000 presale units across 57 countries, according to Emmett Hollyer, Solana Mobile’s general manager. The device is set for release in 2025 and aims to further Web3 mobile development within the Solana ecosystem.

Seeker’s key features include a seed vault wallet, Solana dApp Store 2.0, a Seeker Genesis token, and enhanced hardware. The Early Founder price is $450 until September 21, 2024.

This launch comes after the Saga phone faced initial struggles with sales, but later sold out following a surge in the value of the BONK meme coin.

Chainlink’s Sergey Nazarov Predicts RWA Surge

Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov once again predicted that tokenized real-world assets (RWA) will soon surpass cryptocurrencies in value on Web3. During his keynote at Token2049, he stated that TradFi will become decentralized finance’s (DeFi) largest customer, reshaping the blockchain industry.

Nazarov highlighted Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) as crucial in connecting various financial systems. He noted that Chainlink’s oracle network has already enabled $15.49 trillion in transaction value since 2022.

To integrate with blockchain, TradFi needs access to diverse data types and cross-chain connectivity. CCIP offers programmable token transfers, allowing value and data to be included in single transactions.

CertiK, the prominent blockchain security firm, announced a major upgrade to its Web3 services. The company introduced two free community security tools: Token Scan and Wallet Scan, aimed at increasing user asset protection.

Token Scan offers instant security checks for tokens, helping users detect potential scams on networks like Solana. Wallet Scan allows users to assess their wallets for risks such as approval vulnerabilities, and interactions with phishing addresses.

These tools were developed based on CertiK’s extensive experience, including over 70 white hat operations, reporting of 4,000+ security incidents, identification of 115,000 code vulnerabilities, and protection of approximately $360 billion in assets.

Hollywood Veteran Critiques Celebrity Meme Coins

Andrew Saunders, a former Hollywood executive and now Skale’s chief marketing officer, voiced criticism of celebrity-backed meme coins at Token2049. Despite his background in entertainment, Saunders warned against these tokens due to concentrated supply and high risk, likening them to a player-versus-player game where early entry is key to making a profit.

Looking ahead, Saunders predicted a shift in the landscape as crypto regulations become clearer and public understanding improves. He envisioned a future where celebrities use blockchain to connect with fans in a more meaningful way, accessing unique data through an “arm in” model.

As a better alternative to meme coins, Saunders suggested that celebrities develop decentralized applications (DApps) where fans could earn points through social interactions. These points could then be redeemed for exclusive experiences or merchandise.

Solidus Ai Tech and SambaNova Partner for Web 3.0 AI

Solidus Ai Tech has partnered with SambaNova Systems to advance AI in Web 3.0 by integrating SambaNova’s RDU stacks into Solidus Ai Tech’s AI marketplace and European HPC Data Centre. This collaboration promises unprecedented speeds in AI inferencing and fine-tuning.

Set to launch in September, the AI Marketplace will feature advanced AI models powered by SambaNova’s SN40L chip, making high-performance AI accessible across various industries. Paul Farhi, CEO of Solidus Ai Tech, described it as a major leap for AI, while Su Le from SambaNova emphasized the potential for decentralized intelligence in Web 3.0.

Venture Trio Launches Fund for Aptos Ecosystem Growth

MEXC Ventures, Foresight Ventures, and Mirana Ventures have joined forces to establish a new fund aimed at boosting the Aptos ecosystem. This collaborative initiative will focus on supporting promising projects built on the Aptos platform, with a particular emphasis on developing crucial Web3 use cases.

The fund will prioritize projects that leverage Aptos infrastructure, including technologies like Block-STM, and those that facilitate seamless interoperability with key EVM ecosystems. This strategic investment demonstrates strong confidence in Aptos’ technological advancements and future potential.

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Market

How Fed Rate Cut Could Help LINK

Published

3 hours ago

September 19, 2024

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Chainlink’s (LINK) price has risen above $11 following the recent Fed rate cut. This increase has ignited fresh speculation about the coin’s short-term outlook.

In this analysis, BeInCrypto examines the factors contributing to the hike, the potential implications of the rate cut, and what traders can expect from LINK.

Chainlink Key Drivers Want More

According to Santiment, alongside the recent rate cut, Chainlink’s 90-day Mean Coin Age (MCA) has risen. The MCA reflects the average age of tokens in circulation, with a low MCA suggesting that previously inactive tokens are being moved from cold wallets, potentially leading to a sell-off and putting downward pressure on the price.

Conversely, a rising MCA indicates that investors are holding onto their tokens and engaging less in trading activity, often signaling a long-term hold strategy. In Chainlink’s case, the spike in the MCA suggests that many investors are choosing to keep their LINK tokens dormant or moving them into self-custody, reducing selling pressure.

Chainlink 90-Day Mean Coin Age. Source: Santiment

Beyond the rising coin age, the 4-hour LINK/USD chart reveals a surge in the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), a key indicator of market sentiment. Each bar on the CVD shows whether the market is dominated by buying or selling activity. Red bars signal selling pressure, which could drive the price down.

In LINK’s case, the chart shows five consecutive green bars, indicating sustained buying pressure. This suggests that the market’s demand for LINK is growing, potentially supporting the continuation of its uptrend.

Chainlink Cumulative Volume Delta. Source: TradingView

LINK Price Prediction: Further Gains

The daily chart shows that Chainlink is holding strong at the $10.02 support level, which played a key role in its recent breakout above the $10.83 resistance. Currently, LINK is trading at $11.30, with no significant resistance in sight to halt the uptrend.

Using Fibonacci retracement levels to assess potential price targets, LINK’s next likely move could take it to $11.86, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level. If it breaks past this point, the next target could be around $12.98, a level that appears within reach given the current momentum.

Chainlink Daily Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, the cryptocurrency could experience a pullback if it fails to surpass $11.86. If that happens, LINK might drop to $9.25.

Disclaimer

In line with the Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to accurate, unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions. Please note that our Terms and Conditions, Privacy Policy, and Disclaimers have been updated.

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